Pick a Pitcher: 97 Randy J. vs. 02 Pedro M. Topic

For a theme league I'm building, wound up with two interesting options:

1997 Randy Johnson:
$7.6 million, 213 IP
OAV#: .189
WHIP#: 1.01
HR/9+: 130

2002 Pedro Martinez:
$7.9 million, 200 IP
OAV#: .197
WHIP# : 0.92
HR/9+: 187

Both in double digit K/9. Similar price and innings. Basically comes down to walk prevention versus hit prevention. Thoughts on which you'd prefer? Cap would be $100 mil.
2/26/2015 5:22 AM
Depends on your home ballpark as both are solid options. I think I'd choose Pedro because of the better HR/9 and overall prevention of baserunners, but if your park is already negative HRs, it might not matter much. If your park has a +2 or higher for 1Bs, I'd consider Randy because he will allow fewer hits.

BBs play in any park, so I like to limit them as much as possible, so that also leads me to choose Pedro.
2/26/2015 9:05 AM
Pedro.  The much better BB/9, HR/9 and HR/9+ of Pedro would more than offset the OAV/OAV+ advantage of Randy Johnson, which might not even be an advantage at all if you believe most lineups will have plenty of RH batters.  The LHP Randy Johnson would suffer the L/R effects more often.
2/26/2015 12:16 PM (edited)
Pedro, and not that close a call for me. It depends a bit on the park, but presuming all things being equal, BBs occur early in the decision tree and can be killers. Like frazz says, I like to limit them; perhaps more so than other owners. Pedro wins on that count. The SIM seems to have a bias against left handed pitchers. You may know there is a 4-5% advantage given to a right handed hitter v. a lefty, and vice versa. Pedro will most likely face more RH batters.
3/1/2015 1:15 AM (edited)
Thanks for the great responses folks! I always like talking strategy. It's funny how in the real world it's nice to have a lefty in the rotation to mix things up, but in general with the flat 5% bonus for handedness RH might be preferred. As a lefty myself I always have a soft spot for the great lefty pitchers.

I see a ton written about fitting teams to ballparks. Seems like unless you have a really extreme example (Astrodome) I personally just don't worry too much about it but maybe I should more.

Great point frazz about how focus in the SIM does seem to prefer high walk hitters for the reason you mentioned - impervious to park effects.

Pedro is the more expensive option in fewer innings, probably the HR/9 edge, so sounds properly valued. Fun discussion!
2/26/2015 8:11 PM
Pick a Pitcher: 97 Randy J. vs. 02 Pedro M. Topic

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