I'm sorry for you that you don't understand baseball and the value of pitching.

Jesus christ, dude.

If you win 10-9 it's no different than if you win 4-3. One game or an entire season. It doesn't matter what your expected win percentage is because your actual win percentage is 100%.

There is no difference between winning 10-9 or 4-3.

Once again, you expose your functional retardedness with respect to your understanding of baseball to the world.

In the long run, teams with the ability to prevent their opponents from scoring runs via pitching and defense will be more successful than teams that can out slug their opponents.  Fundamental baseball wins out over a slugfest almost every time.

That's why pitching is the most valuable commodity for teams as they load up for the post season.

Don't you ever get tired of being stupid in these forums?

If the Blue Jays score 865 and allow 701, over the course of a season, will they expect to win more or less games than if they score 855 and allow 691?

You can go down that rathole by yourself.

Let us know if and when you ever understand baseball.  Then we can talk.

It's not a hole. It's as easy to figure out as your 10-9, 4-3 example.

But I'll answer for you.

The answer is they will not expect to win more games. Or less games. In both scenarios, they would expect to win 98 games*.




*Obviously, the Jays aren't going to win 98 games this season, despite their great run differential. But, as long as the full season RS/RA are somewhere in the neighborhood of what we can reasonably expect them to finish with, adding 10 runs of offense is the same as saving 10 runs with pitching.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 2:35:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 2:29:00 PM (view original):
If the Blue Jays score 865 and allow 701, over the course of a season, will they expect to win more or less games than if they score 855 and allow 691?

Less.  96 vs 97, but still fewer.

I got 98 for both.

97.78 and 97.99, specifically.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 2:36:00 PM (view original):
You should probably pick an example where rounding doesn't work exactly against you.  You set up a .2 win difference centered right around a half win.  Clearly you didn't check the numbers first.

I projected out the RS/RA for the Jays based on the per game numbers now and threw it into excel. Expected win % of 0.60359 vs 0.60490.

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 2:36:00 PM (view original):
But I'll answer for you.

The answer is they will not expect to win more games. Or less games. In both scenarios, they would expect to win 98 games*.




*Obviously, the Jays aren't going to win 98 games this season, despite their great run differential. But, as long as the full season RS/RA are somewhere in the neighborhood of what we can reasonably expect them to finish with, adding 10 runs of offense is the same as saving 10 runs with pitching.

The Jays have scored 72 more runs than everybody else in MLB, and are +123 over MLB average.

Their pitching staff has allowed 28 more runs than MLB average.

When you're trying to improve a team, is it smarter to make the things that work great even better, or try to improve the things that are working poorly?

I used 2.

BP uses 1.85. BR uses 1.83. I think FG still uses 2 (at least they do in the glossary).

It's kind of beside the point that adding Tulo's runs will be just as effective over the remainder of the season as saving the same amount of runs.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 2:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 2:36:00 PM (view original):
But I'll answer for you.

The answer is they will not expect to win more games. Or less games. In both scenarios, they would expect to win 98 games*.




*Obviously, the Jays aren't going to win 98 games this season, despite their great run differential. But, as long as the full season RS/RA are somewhere in the neighborhood of what we can reasonably expect them to finish with, adding 10 runs of offense is the same as saving 10 runs with pitching.

The Jays have scored 72 more runs than everybody else in MLB, and are +123 over MLB average.

Their pitching staff has allowed 28 more runs than MLB average.

When you're trying to improve a team, is it smarter to make the things that work great even better, or try to improve the things that are working poorly?

Easier or smarter?

It's easier to replace a 1 win player with a 3 win player. It's harder to replace a 3 win player with a 5 win player. But the improvement is the same.