Dear friends, frenemies and other interested parties.
welcome to the new season on the blog. I hope you will find it interesting and an improvement to your game experience.

Before the preview comes the review. I cannot be the only one who looked at last seasons bracket and thought: wow, all the good run-first teams are in one half, and all the good pass-first team are in the other half  The west-east had UMC, Western State, SEO and for good measure Northern State and Bryant. The north-south had Millersville, Indiana, Quincy and for good measure NCCU and Mansfield.

It is unlikely that this happens again this season. So being able to defend teams of different stripes is likely to be more important than beating teams at their own game.

 

Preseason Ranking

I call em as I see em, so you gotta belive me, when I say that since I do these previews I have never seen the top 6 teams be this even. Every team has an argument in their favor. Among run first teams UMC has the clearly best O-line, Western has the next best but less other problems, SEO has the best RB and is arguably the most balanced team and should be able to beat defenses in different ways. Among pass first teams Millersville has the best QB, NCCU the D with the fewest holes and Quincy has the most depth and experience all across the offense and the probably best D-line. All those teams have a good argument why they would deserve the title. Particularly on the O line the difference between the 3^rd and the 15^th best unit is small. Skill positions on the other hand are showing bigger differences.

In my mind there are 6 hot contenders 2-4 dark horses a bit behind them and then there would be about 5-10 teams that are hard to distinguish in terms of their quality. Those latter ones are not quite good enough to make the championship final, but they can be serious obstacles to several top ten teams.

1.      1. Quincy (YATZR tool 1^st, Press/coaches ranking 2^nd)

Last Season: semi final, WIS: 3^rd, Conference Champion.

Quincy has now reached at least the quarter finals 5 times in a row. And this should be an up-season as there are 17 seniors on the roster. In particular having 3 of the best WRs might make them hard to stop. The D-line is probably the saltiest one in Division II making running difficult, and the DBs are among the top three also, making passing difficult too. Nitpickers might point to the LBs, and TEs and maybe the O-line which is “only” a top 5 unit.

OOC schedule: A few cupcakes and interesting games vs Millersville and Virginia State

2.      2. Western State of Colorado(YATZR tool 4^th, Press/coaches ranking 5^th)

Last Season: semi finals, WIS: 8^th. Conference Champion.

A run first team having likely the 2^nd best OL-TE combo, with actually no offensive weaknesses. Combine that with the 2^nd best D-line around and highly competent back seven. Western will threaten for the title again. The primary weakness is on special teams where western will reset completely.

OOC schedule: The schedule is on the same level as Millersvilles, if not tougher. No complete cupcakes and Millersville straight on day 1 and then, Bryant and Virginia State.

3.      3. SE Oklahoma Durant (YATZR tool 3^rd, Press/coaches ranking 1^st)

Last Season: Championship finalist, WIS: 2^nd, Conference Champion.

SEO has the best QB of the top tier, so maybe there will be more passing this season. On the other hand SEO also has the best RB in DII. Combine that with one of the 5 best OLs and any build of defense should face a tough test.  Defensively, while depth is sometimes lacking a bit, the starting unit of DL,LB, and DBs should each be at least in the top 5 compared to all other DII teams.

OOC schedule: It is 5 human oponents of differing quality, but the most interesting game is likely the one on day 3 vs NCCU. Kentucky State and Northern State are also indications of where SEO stands

4.      4. University of Minnesota Crookston (YATZR tool 2^nd, Press/coaches ranking 3^rd).

Last Season: round 2, WIS: 7^th, Conference Champion.

Paid the price for being fairly young last season, and will still be on the young side this season, but the team is also soo darn talented.

A weakness at this level of competition is WR where a lone sophomore will be joined by a frosh. Yes UMC is all NDB and you only need one WR there, but still. That QB is not quite where it usually is for top 5 teams will make the team likely even more one dimesnsional. But what a dimension it likely is to be!

I might have put UMC a decent bit lower, if it did not happen to have the best OL (by some margin actually) combined with awesome blocking TE. Even though the RBs are no better or worse than any other top 5 teams, expect it to be hard to keep UMC from running you into the ground. Defensively the D line is just top ten, but the LBs might be the best LB unit in DII.

OOC schedule: mostly bland, but that game vs Indiana on day 4 (and to some degree the one vs Stonehill) has me interested.

5.      5. Millersville (YATZR tool 6^th, Press/coaches ranking 4^th)

Last Season: National Champion, WIS: 1^st, Division Champion.

Millersville won the Natty, letting the ball fly on everyone last season. 16 players from that team are gone, but a looooot of talent and mojolads system remain including the arguably best QB around. The loss of depth and quality is a bit concerning for a pass first team, especially without a corresponding gain at RB, but this is complaining at a high level. The loss of the 3 best O-lineman leaves that also a bit weaker. The stars at every position on D can take it up with those of other teams, but there might be some depth problems, particularly on the line.

OOC schedule: This might be the toughest OOC schedule again. It features 4 games vs press ranked teams including Quincy and Western State.

6.      6. North Carolina Central University (YATZR tool 5^th Press/coaches ranking 6^th) 

Last Season: round 2, WIS: 18^th, Division Champion

This team is still undergoing a bit of a system change on offense. Which didn’t go so hot last season. RB and WR are awesome, but QB and TE are more top 20 than top 5. The OL can take it up with most top 5 teams though, so overall this Offense should be tough for anybody, but potentially not consistent enough to win the title. That said this team has a shot at the whole enchilada, since it has some of the best DBs and D-linemen playing.

OOC schedule: Starting with cupcakes, but then taking on SEO and Glennville.

7.      7. Indiana (PA) (YATZR tool 8^th, Press/coaches ranking 12^th)

Last Season: quarter finals, WIS: 4^th, Conference Champion.

Millersville might have won the Natty, but Indiana snatched the conference from mojolad. Since Indiana is a pass-first team the fact the RB is only top 15 level is maybe not a problem, particularly as both QB and the number 1 WR are elite. Both lines are solidly top ten and maybe top 5 units. LB is a mixed bag: super quality on the top 2, but some depth problems that count a bit more as Indiana runs the 3-4 as its base. If there is a reason Indiana is more of a dark horse than a first tier candidate to me, then it is the DBs which are barely top ten at best.

OOC schedule: Top games are on day 4 vs UMC and day 5 vs Ferris.

8.      8. Virginia State (YATZR tool 9^th, Press/coaches ranking 8^th)

Last Season: round 1, WIS: 6^th, Conference Champion

Had a decidedly unlucky playoff draw last season, but managed to beat NCCU for the conference. Generally the O is not quite top ten with the exception of the line, which is almost elite. The defensive front seven is high quality, but the Dbs can’t quite keep up with that level.

OOC schedule: there are two big challenges in Quincy on day 3 and Western on day 4.

9.      9. Ferris State (YATZR tool 12^th, Press/coaches ranking 14/15^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 12^th. Conference Champion.

This is a fairly experienced team with 18 juniors and only replaces 8 players.

QB is top 5, and TE is really nice, but there are some severe problems on the O-line which is more top 20 than top ten. The D is clearly top ten, lead by a maybe top 5 line. But while the back seven have a star or two that any team would love to have, they will also start players that would not start in any other top ten team.

OOC schedule: Challenging but managable with 5 human oponents including mars hill, stonehill and Indiana on days 3-5.

10.   10. Bryant (YATZR tool 7^th, Press/coaches ranking 11^th/10^th).

Last Season: round 1, WIS: 9^th, Conference Champion.

Stephen Rosen is in the running for best RB in DII. Both lines are not too far from top 5 level at the top, but lack depth. The D overall is a fairly even top ten unit but no more than that.

OOC schedule: decent, with day 3 vs Western State and day 5 vs Lane being the highlights.

11.   11. Valdosta State (YATZR tool 13^th, Press/coaches ranking 5^th)

Last Season: quarter final, WIS: 5^th, Conference Champion.

Outperformed expectations for the second time in a row. The skill positions are all solid top ten with depth, but TE/O-line are more just Top 15 level. The D is about top 10 to 15 throughout, with no obvious holes.

OOC schedule: hard to say whether the best game is vs WVIT on day  4 or SIM SVSU on day 5. It could be more horrible, but it definitely is not impressive.

12.   12. Carson Newman (YATZR tool 10^th, Press/coaches ranking 18^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 10^th. Conference Champion.

It was a big jump to the conference title last season, but the playoffs did not yet go well.

This run first team, has one hell of a deep O-line, and is another contender at having a top 5 unit there. The problem is that the skill positions don’t keep up. On the D the line has improved a lot, the big question mark is the back seven where only two LBs return and neither is elite. And depth on DB does not impress either. CNC runs the 4-4 and the nickel, but both will still be affected by these problems.

OOC schedule: Easy apart from day 3 at Millersville.

13.   13. Mansfield (YATZR tool 11^th, Press/coaches ranking 17^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 13^th

On O the team has no weakness, but really also no strength. The D has a decent line and d-backs but the LB position has a serious depth problem.

OOC schedule: This is a very interesting OOC schedule with a lot of winnable games but zero definite wins for Mansfield.

14.   14. Glennville (YATZR tool 15^th, Press/coaches ranking 15/16^th)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 15^th, Division Champion.

WR and WB are pretty decent, but RB is not top 20. O and D line are both top 15 but lack depth. Probably has one of the 10 best LB units.

OOC schedule: The season really does not start before day 5 and the game vs NCCU.

15.   15. Northern State (YATZR tool 12^th, Press/coaches ranking 22/21^st)

Last Season: quarter finals, WIS: 23^rd, Division Champion.

Northern might have the best O-lineman in DII. But to have an elite IL one needs more than one guy, and so the unit is just top ten with little depth. This picture of stars and mediocre starters can also be found troughout the Defense and makes it really hard to know where to rank Northern.

OOC schedule: The season will only really start on day 5 with a game vs SEO.


Other teams I looked at:
Maybe it has to be stated that the teams I look at had at least one top 15 ranking in either the YATZR tool, the press or coaches poll, or last seasons WIS top 15 or failing that, a second round birth in the playoffs.

 

Lane College (YATZR tool 18^th, Press/coaches ranking 13th)

Last Season: quarter finals, WIS: 25^th.

Don’t underestimate Lanes Offense. The O-line is top 15, but both WR and RB are top and QB is ok too. Both the D-line and Dbacks might be top ten too, but some people will figure out how to take advantage of the comparatively really weak LBs which don’t belong near a top 20 team.

OOC Schedule: cupcakes for 3 days, then Mansfield and Bryant.

Kutztown (YATZR tool 14^th, Press/coaches ranking 15/14^th)

Last Season: missed playoffs, WIS: 39^nd.

Missing the playoffs was an unmitigated disaster, which would be hard to imagine in any other conference but the PSAC. That said, OOC performance had not helped. This season -compared to teams in similar ranking standings- this is a team completely devoid of weaknesses…. and strengths. This team would definitely be a danger to any team that is not in the top 6.. If anything is better than the rest, then it is QB, if any position is worse, it is TE.

OOC schedule: Other than a day 2 game vs Stonehill there really is nothing to see here.

Delta State (YATZR tool 19^th, Press/coaches ranking 7^th/6^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 17^th.

O-line is close to top ten, but the skill positions are not gonna scare any top 10 defense. The defense is solid top 15, no more no less.

OOC schedule: Cupcakes except GVSU on day 4.

Stonehill (YATZR tool 22^nd, Press/coaches ranking 23^rd)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 14^th.

The Skill positions are quite decent and might eserve a ranking. The O-line is decent but lacking depth. The D-line is also veery thin and while the back seven is ok at the top, it will have to play a number of players who really should not be getting extended time.

OOC schedule: this is a decently tough schedule with chances to surprise but also hard to take. They play Kutztown, Ferris State and UMC.

Grand Valley State (YATZR tool 20^th, Press/coaches ranking 22/21^st)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 16^th. Division Champion.

The third most winningest team in Warner DII is on its way back. That said, there are a lot ogf sophomores on this roster and inexperience at QB and throughout the offense will hurt GVSU at times even with an already top 10ish O-line. The D also is young and fairly talented, but not so much that GVSU can expect to challenge the big dogs already this season

OOC schedule: Cupcakes except on day 4 vs Delta State.

Northwest Missouri State. (YATZR tool 27^th, Press/coaches ranking 31^rd)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 21^st. Division Champion.

I like the LBs on the and the D-line is not close to top 15 but ok, but DBs have serious holes to patch. The offense is not horrible but definitely has ways to go before reaching the top 20, particularly at QB.

OOC schedule: no team that would count as a baseline, central Washington on day 4 is the best game.

Lock Haven (YATZR tool 22^nd, Press/coaches ranking 23^rd)

Last Season: Round 2, WIS: 11^th. Conference Champion.

Lock Haven gets covered because they made round 2 and ranked high in WIS last season, but the team is not yet quite where it could expect that to happen this season. On Offense QB is ready, but the other positions are not yet top 20. Defense is better, particularly DB, but due to graduations rather thin.

OOC schedule: the only toughish game is on day 3 vs WVIT.

Humboldt State (YATZR tool 25^th, Press/coaches ranking 9^th)

Last Season: Round 1, WIS: 29^th. Conference Champion.

With its last totally missed class gone, Humboldt is on its way back! That said the discrepancy between the rankings above has a reason, and it is that the current senior class was recruited with little vision. While the defense is closing in on being one of the 15 best, the offense simply is not at that talent level yet with maybe the exception of the line.

OOC Schedule: Cupcakes everywhere. With the NCC schedule on top of that, Humboldt will not get a high ranking, even if they should go undefeated.

 

 

 

 

 

With more time I would have looked at next: East Stroudsburg. Kentucky State, Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Truman State.

 

All those who face the power of Millersville face the wrath of the zipper Genie. Those that defy our dominance will get their "willie" caught in their zipper ! 

Yeah well I'm not wearing a zipper so ha!

A look at the new WIS rankings has me thinking, that I really should have looked at East Stroudsburg and Abilene Christian.

The jockeying between 5 (Millersville Zipper Genies) -8 (Va State) should be interesting to watch as there's not much at all separating those teams per the GUESS ratings. Obviously those top 4 teams a pretty brutal to get through (particularly a veteran quincy team) but interesting none the less.

Thanks as always dachmann. Just happy to be among those mentioned instead of others considered. Keep an eye out for Arkansas-Monticello. I also think West Chester might pull an upset or two in conference.

Kind of happy with the "should have looked at" for ESUP, but now I can't sneak up on anybody.

Posted by lyonzfan37 on 8/10/2015 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Thanks as always dachmann. Just happy to be among those mentioned instead of others considered. Keep an eye out for Arkansas-Monticello. I also think West Chester might pull an upset or two in conference.

Uam has been there quietly building a good program. The gsc is getting some real depth and it's starting to get fun.

Dachmann: My thanks for making this game more fun. Always a hoot to see something nice said about my Millersville  .

dachmann: many thanks as always.  Good luck coaches in the centennial season.

Posted by mojolad on 8/9/2015 9:54:00 AM (view original):
All those who face the power of Millersville face the wrath of the zipper Genie. Those that defy our dominance will get their "willie" caught in their zipper ! 

This happens to me frequently.  I always attributed it to my sizable manhood as opposed to your theory.  Interesting.....

Thanks dachmann.

Curious if anyone has ever experienced what happened in my game today. Watched thru Wiscast and coming to the end my opponent down 39-0 spiked the ball on 2nd down to stop the clock with under a minute to go. I watched as 2 incomplete passes were next so I clicked off rather than watch the coming kneel down. Then I noticed the final score was 39-7. Went back and the play by play now has a 77 yard run for TD on third down. Before any suggestions I was doing something funny or going senile I swear I saw 2 incomplete passes on 3rd & 4th down. This was just strange.

Posted by mojolad on 8/10/2015 1:06:00 AM (view original):
Foiled Again 

Good luck tomorrow mojo. If I can get my offense to work it will be a good game.