Posted by mojolad on 8/15/2015 3:27:00 AM (view original):
 Tis a close one at the half Spcbuzzard.

Posted by ranger1951 on 8/14/2015 3:24:00 PM (view original):
Curious if anyone has ever experienced what happened in my game today. Watched thru Wiscast and coming to the end my opponent down 39-0 spiked the ball on 2nd down to stop the clock with under a minute to go. I watched as 2 incomplete passes were next so I clicked off rather than watch the coming kneel down. Then I noticed the final score was 39-7. Went back and the play by play now has a 77 yard run for TD on third down. Before any suggestions I was doing something funny or going senile I swear I saw 2 incomplete passes on 3rd & 4th down. This was just strange.

Bubble Watch day 10:

I know I am a bit later than usually this season.  But better late than never. Looks like the bubble is softish at the top but crowded where it counts this season. And if I have to bet, then no SIM will make the playoffs this season.

CIAA

It will be the same as every season in the final: NCCU vs Virginia State. But Elizabeth City is probably making this a three bid conference.

Locks:

NCCU (10-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 1) Could probably lose 4 more times. But other than Virginia State in the final, there is nothing remotely scary left.

Should be in:

Virginia State (8-2, WIS: 20 SOS: 44): Took a big step by pasting Elizabeth City today and basically has to keep serve against some SIMs, nothing difficult. A loss in the final would likely be no problem then.

Work left:

Elizabeth City (8-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 84): Well, whenever EC played a real opponent it wasn’t pretty. But it also held serve against the numerous easy SIMs on the schedule. If EC wins out, they will likely be on the bubble since the SOS is not going to improve, but tendency good side I’d say.

GLIAC:

Should be in:

Ferris State (9-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 41): Already pretty much wrapped up the west, and with the remaining schedule things would have to go very wrong for them not to make it.

Work left to do:

Grand Valley State (10-0, WIS: 17, SOS: 129): It was a bunch of cupcakes and a nice win over Delta State. While nothing super scary, the next three games are gonna be slightly tougher than the last 6. One loss would not be a problem, two would likely be ok, but three…

Saginaw Valley State (8-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 67): As far as SIMs go, this is a vicious one, having already beaten three coaches. That said, it also lost to the better teams on the schedule. With a game vs GVSU on day 13, and the traditional MOV problem of SIMs, I think it will take an upset for SVSU to make it in… but like I said, has already beaten 3 coaches this season.

GSC

The GSC has definitely become one of the more fun conferences.

Locks:

Valdosta State (10-0, WIS: 8, SOS: 81): The OOC was not super impressive, but Valdosta has not dropped the ball and so far also dominated in conference. The game vs UAM on day 13 looms large, but more due to conference implications than because of the playoffs. W Georgia did not make it into the watch due to its loss to a SIM today.

Should be in:

Arkansas-Monticello (9-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 85): Despite the loss to Delta today, it is hard to see UAM missing the playoffs completely. It would basically take losing every game left on the schedule

Work left to do:

Delta State (7-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 12): Won a squeaker vs UAM for the second season in a row. And Delta needed it too. After having lost to several good but not great teams they aren’t safe yet, but a fourth loss would have been devastating, and the rest of the schedule seems handlable. That said some SOS watching and slight sweating will remain.

Central Arkansas (7-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 39). Talk about a close call. UCA score 19 points in the fourth quarter to beat W. Alabama by one point on a touchdown that came in as time expired.  Now UCA is in the drivers seat for the division crown. The playoffs are no certainty though. UCA currently sits on the bubble, with a few games left that can improve or kill its chances.

West Alabama (6-4, WIS: 22 SOS: 3)Lost to 3 top ten teams before today, no biggie; but this one today hurt. It came just as W. Alabama had the playoffs in its grasp. WAU has such strong SOS numbers currently, that they have decent odds of making the playoffs despite 4 losses. But even as good as the SOS is, a regular season loss vs W. Georgia or Harding would likely cut it extremely close. And if the SOS comes down a bit, things could get dicey even if they win out.

Need help:

Harding (6-4, WIS:44, SOS: 29): 4 losses requires a high SOS, and one may wonder whether the GSC north is quite good enough to supply the needed bump. In any case with two tough games left, the point is likely to become moot anyway.

LSC

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (9-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 6): Lost to the WIS number one team, and is otherwise spotless against a pretty tough schedule.

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (9-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 128): The big thing was beating TAMC yesterday, which will likely propel ACU to the championship game. That said, the SOS being fairly horrible this season, a loss in the championship would put ACU back on the bubble. Likely the good side, but there will be sweating and no hickups are allowed.

Texas A&M commerce (7-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 16): Is actually in a better position than ACU playoff wise. But cutting it as close to another loss like today is not wise, as a fourth loss would be dangerous despite the pretty nice SOS.

MIAA

A few seasons ago the MIAA was easily in the race for worst conference. Now the top may still not be super impressive, but the depth is definitely there. Despite that, the number of playoff teams might be low this season.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Lock Haven (10-0, WIS: 21, SOS: 140): The best bet to make the playoffs among MIAA teams. The schedule so far was creampuff, undefeated is undefeated, and it would likely take two losses, before things get dicey.

Truman State (8-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 102): Lost the game to NMSU today, in the 4^th quarter. Instead of putting Truman in good position for both the division and the playoffs, they are now square on the bubble. The MIAA north is more win heavy than in a long time, so winning out would likely suffice. But another loss anywhere along the road and all bets are off.

NW Missouri State (8-2, WIS: 36, SOS: 103): With the schedule being what it is, NMSU probably needed this win today to remain viable. The resume loss that really hurt is the one to UCW, and NMSU has no margin of error, even after todays win.

NCC

By its own standards, this is an up season for the NCC.

Locks:

Work to do:

South Dakota State (9-1, WIS: 19, SOS:132). Who have they played? Nobody. Who did they lose to: also Nobody. And the SOS numbers are just not aweful enough that a single loss would doom them.

Humboldt State (8-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 141): Who have they played (Ok, maybe Central Washington counts)? Nobody. Who did they lose to: also nobody. The SOS numbers are bad enough though, that a loss to anyone before the championship game would be problematic.

Need help:

Central Washington (7-3, WIS: 46, SOS: 71): Definitely needs to win out, and needs help on top of that. Likely would have needed the one today vs Humboldt. The win over NMSU was nice, but the loss to Augustana hurt. 

NE-10

The west is a mess, with Stonehill and Pace having no team there that would qualify as a real quality win because teams lost too many OOC games.

Locks:

Should be in:

Long Island (10-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 95): Quite safe unless it starts losing to SIMs.

Work left to do:

Bryant (8-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 104): Some fairly decent wins on this resume, but nothing that is an autoqualifier.  If Bryant loses to Long Island on day 13, there will be sweating, but it would likely be ok. Losing to anyone before that on the other hand, would cause serious problems.

Stonehill (6-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 40): There is no single loss on this resume that would disqualify Stonehill from being a respectable playoff team. But the overall number of them is concerning, as is the problem of lack of opponents that have the number of wins required. It might take winning the Conference to make the field.

Need help:

American International (7-3, WIS: 49, SOS: 87): If this SIM could beat Bryant on day 12, maybe theres a chance (Cue Jim Carrey)

NSIC

Teams like UM Duluth and WVSC were out and about, and won over and lost to a number of fringe playoff teams. But both would likely have to pull huge upsets and win the conference to make it in.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (10-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 17): UMC played 2 tough games vs Indiana and Northern and won them by 8/9 points, and beat the rest of its schedule to pulp.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Northern State (8-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 88): The MOVs are good and the losses are both to top 5 teams. But the wins are not over impressive competition. Northern Sate likely needs to win out in division. A loss to UMC in the final might be sustainable, but it is not eniterly guaranteed.

Need help:

West Virginia State (7-3, WIS: 54, SOS: 105): Yes they lead the division, but even with an upset over Northern things WVSC would likely need to win the conference.

PSAC

The PSAC east remains the deepest division in Warner. The west on the other hand is currently a one team show.

Locks:

Millersville (9-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 1): Yes there are still tough games there, but the SOS is such, that nothing can happen.

Indiana (9-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 11): Has- for all intents and purposes, already won the west.

Should be in:

Mansfield (9-1, WIS: 9, SOS: 23): The one point loss to ESUP is a minor setback, creating just enough doubt to keep them from complete lock status but a SOS like this can easily sustain 3 losses and maybe even a fourth.

East Stroudsburg (9-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 34): The win over Mansfield really elevated ESUP. ESUPcan remove any doubts with a win over West Chester tomorrow. Should that happen they could play a division final vs Millersville on day 13.

Work left to do:

West Chester (9-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 116): 9-1 looks really good, but there are no easy games left. West Chester can likely affors one more loss, but a second one would put them on the bubble, and with ESUP, Kutztown and Mansfield still to come this could go any way imaginable.

Kutztown (7-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 26): Took a whoopin from Millersville today, the third loss in a row. Things are starting to get slightly bublish. It is uncertain whether a loss to Mansfield tomorrow would be sustainable, but another one to West Chester after that would certainly not be.

Need help:

California (4-6, WIS: 47, SOS: 13): Yes, the SOS is nice, but likely not nice enough to overcome 6 losses, particularly as it is not likely to improve anymore.

Edinboro (7-3, WIS: 45, SOS: 106): In theory still with some shot, in practice the game vs Indiana will end all hope.

RMAC

Any betting man would say that two teams will make it in.

Locks:

Western State (9-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 5): No dangerous oponents left and lots of margin.

Should be in:

Colorado Mines (8-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 28): The only losses are to SEO and Western, nothing to be ashamed of.  Would likely have to lose to two SIMs to get into real trouble.

SAC

Locks

Should be in:

Carson-Newman (9-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 83): Tomorrows game vs Mars Hill is likely for the Division crown, but unlikely to pose a threat to CNs playoff hopes.

Work to do:

Glennville (8-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 27): Close to “should be in”, thanks to wins over UCWW and Mars Hill. But a win tomorrow over Lenoir-Rhyne would not only remove those doubts, but also put Glenville in line for a rematch with CN in the Championship game. 

Lenoir-Rhyne (8-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 113): The losses are not horrible, but the wins are not impressive. Really need that game vs Glenville tomorrow

Mars Hill (7-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 113): Started slow vs a pretty decent SIM today but then ran away. Will need likely to beat CN tomorrow, in order to stay viable.

SIAC

Locks:

Quincy (10-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 24): Won this seasons rivalry vs Millersville, the only game that was really close

Should be in:

Kentucky State (8-2, WIS: 13, SOS:19): Lost the first two games to top 10 teams and has been flawless since. And there were several potential playoff teams on the schedule. It would take weird upsets to SIMs for things to go wrong.

Work left to do:

Lane (7-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 38): If the WIS playoffs were determined by a human playoff committee, then Lane would likely look fairly safe. The win over a decent Miles and particularly that win over Bryant would easily outweigh the three losses that were all to top ten teams (although hat was some epic beating Lane took from Quincy). Lanes predicament is that when WIS looks at Bryant it does not see the top 15 team I see, all it sees is a 2-loss team that is barely in the top 30, and more importantly it weighs the SIM part of the schedule equally heavy as the human part. And it just so happens that the SIMs that Lane played totally underperformed against other SIMs. As a consequence Lane is square on the bubble, and Sundays game vs St Josephs is an elimination game.

Miles (7-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 53): Plays Kentucky State tomorrow. Absolutely needs to take advantage of that chance to shine and win a game that would bump up its SOS, otherwise things will look really dire.

Needs help to get an at large:

St. Josephs (6-4, WIS:41, SOS: 25): There is a decent win over Truman, but the loss to Miles still hurts, but not nearly as much as the one today vs a middling SIM. There is still an outside chance that if it wins out, St. Josephs might make it into the field. But the necessitates that it overcomes its offensive struggles and beats Lane on Sunday.

Albany State (6-4, WIS:42, SOS: 18): Well, the tough games are over for this SIM, but that also means it needs to make a jump, without having oponents that help the SOS much.

Posted by brygold on 8/21/2015 5:58:00 PM (view original):
I always enjoy your write ups dachmann - but especially at 5:00 p.m. on a Friday afternoon.  And even more especially when you very clearly memorialize that Quincy beat Millersville this season.

Bubble Watch day 12:

When I missed day 11 I missed the day when 11(!) 3 loss teams turned into 4 loss teams (and pretty much nothing happened above that). And the carnage has only marginally slowed on day 12, so by now, we are heading for a softish bubble compared to the last 2 seasons. The good news for teams on the right side of the bubble is, that there is a big hole in the WIS rankings between 32^nd and 34^th. I kind of expect an absence of bubble movement tomorrow.

CIAA

It will be the same as every season in the final: NCCU vs Virginia State. But Elizabeth City has a shot at making this a three bid conference.

Locks:

NCCU (12-0)

Virginia State (10-2, WIS: 17 SOS: 49): Out of options to run into trouble.

Should be in:

Work left:

Elizabeth City (10-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 82): Right on the bubble, but has seen other Bubble teams fall by the way side. With the game vs a 7-5 Bowie State tomorrow, they are an ever son slight favorit to juuuust squeeze in if they win.

GLIAC:

Locks:

Ferris State (11-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 58), Done with the homework, now only focusing on the championship game.

Grand Valley State (12-0, WIS: 14, SOS: 127): 12-0 is good enough at this stage with a SOS anywhere outside the bottom ten.

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Saginaw Valley State (9-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 70): With teams falling by the wayside, things had been going really nicely for SVSU. The question was starting to pop up, whether they might even survive a loss to GVSU tomorrow. But then SVSU lost to New Mexico, and now it is win or die. With a game vs GVSU on day 13, and the traditional MOV problem of SIMs it will take an upset for SVSU to make it in… but then again, this SIM, has already beaten 3 coaches this season.

GSC

The GSC has definitely become one of the more fun conferences. Harding got taken off the watch, due to another loss.

Locks:

Valdosta State (12-0):

Arkansas-Monticello (11-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 112): A loss tomorrow would be eased by the bump Valdosta brings to the SOS. Nothing can happen.

Should be in:

Delta State (9-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 19): An easy win away from complete security.

Work left to do:

West Alabama (8-4, WIS: 25 SOS: 8): Only 35 teams with 3 losses or less are left, some of them have horrible SOS numbers and will not make it in. Having clearly the best SOS among aall 4-loss teams WAU is thus in actually a pretty decent position, and might sneak in, even if they caught another loss to W Georgia tomorrow. But why risk it?

Central Arkansas (9-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 39). Despite leading the division over WAU, UCAs playoff hopes are much less certain. Part of the problem are 3 games in a row with less than exciting MOVs. UCA definitely needs to take care of Harding tomorrow. What would happen with a CCG loss is right now really hard to predict.

LSC

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (11-1):

Should be in:

Texas A&M commerce (9-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 25): Fairly safe, as they will not play a CCG anyway. Even if they lost to the SIM tomorrow, they would likely not fall far enough to fall out completely.

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (10-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 134): The SOS is pretty bad but will be given a lift in the CCG, which I’d tend to assume will be good enough to keep ACU in. But they mustn’t slip up in the meantime, maybe even put up an impressive score, just to make sure…

MIAA

If things go really wrong, the MIAA could end up being a one bid league. NMSU beating Truman might turn out to be some sort of cannibalism. But right now it looks more like a blessing in disguise.

Should be in:

Lock Haven (12-0, WIS: 20, SOS: 142): Looking good and even losing twice would usually be ok, but I still have a scenario or two where I could imagine things going completely wrong.

Work left to do:

Truman State (10-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 97): Still square on the bubble, as their OOC opponents let them down lately.  But it would not take a lot of movement for Truman to keep above the cut line. Getting shut out like in the first half today, is not helpfult toward that goal though.

NW Missouri State (10-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 74): It was tied at the half today, but NMSU eeked out another win. Whether they can move up enough that a loss in the CCG would be sustainable remains hard to gauge. Safer to just win it all.

NCC

By its own standards, this is an up season for the NCC.

Should be in:

South Dakota State (12-0, WIS: 18, SOS: 138), Humboldt State (12-0, WIS: 23, SOS: 144): It is funny that this is the only conference with two unbeaten teams left. Naturally both of them are fairly safe by now, as despite the horrible SOSs, the bump the will receive from playing each other in the CCG should be big enough to counteract any problems that may still arise.

Need help:

Central Washington (9-3, WIS: 42, SOS: 95): Even though there are unusually few 3 loss teams left, UCW is unlikely to make it in. The SOS is not great, but I am wondering whether WIS is particularly unforgiving to that loss to Augustana. UCW is also one of those teams that has me wondering whether WIS has made MOVs more important or tweaked its formulas in some other subtle way.

NE-10

American International was taken off the board.

Locks:

Long Island (12-0, WIS: 16, SOS: 136): Tomorrows game is important for the conference championship. But the playoffs are completely safe.

Work left to do:

Bryant (10-2, WIS: 29, SOS: 104): Despite taking care of business, bubble wise Bryant has been treading water. Since Long Island has a great record, losing tomorrow would probably not hurt much, but right now Bryants margin of error is so small, that winning is the only really safe play.

Stonehill (8-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 40): As teams have fallen by the wayside, Stonehilld has gotten closer to the cut-line; alas probably not fast enough. It might take winning the Conference to make the field.

NSIC

I took WVSC off the board after yesterdays loss.

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (12-0):

Work left to do:

Northern State (10-2, WIS: 28, SOS: 93): Slowly moving in the right direction. Northern Sate likely needs to win out in division. A loss to UMC in the final is likely sustainable, but it won’t be with comfortbale room to spare.

PSAC

The PSAC east will chose its champion on the last day. But overall the conference risks having only 4 teams in again. Edinboro and California got taken off the board, since their ranking failed to improve enough.

Locks:

Indiana (11-1), Millersville (11-1)

East Stroudsburg (11-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 43): After having done all its chores, ESUPs way to win the division is straight forward: beat Millersville. Easier said than done though.

Mansfield (10-2, WIS: 9, SOS: 6): It was close, but in the end it was not quite enough to pull off the upset vs Millersville and challenge for the division. But yesterdays win over Kutztown was enough to see Mansfield safely in.

Work left to do:

Kutztown (8-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 5): West Chester was some sort of elimination game for Kutztown after having lost 4 straight. Whether that win is enough remains to be seen. It is possible. Kutztown is not super far away, but since they play a 1-11 team tomorrow I have my doubts it was good enough.

West Chester (9-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 76): West Chester also would really have like to have todays game. With 2 losses in a row, things are starting to get pretty crispy. A win vs Mansfield tomorrow would potentially do enough to put them in the field, a loss would likely keep them out. But Mansfield is not a small mountain to climb.

RMAC

Any betting man would say that two teams will make it in.

Locks:

Western State (11-1).

Should be in:

Colorado Mines (10-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 56): The only losses are to SEO and Western, nothing to be ashamed of, and rock solid otherwise. Will get another shot at western on Tuesday.

SAC

Locks:

Glennville (10-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 21), Carson-Newman (11-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 62): Both secured the playoffs vs their primary adversaries in division yesterday. The SAC had three different conference winners in the las 3 seasons. Can CN put a stranglehold on it, or is Glenville gonna be the one claiming conference supremacy?

Need help:

Lenoir-Rhyne (9-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 90): With a 9-3 record and a SOS where it is, LR should be closer to the line, but it definitely has a serious MOV problem: the wins over bad oponenets were just consistently too close for comfort, todays 2 point win was a perfect example. As a consequence LR needs carnage above it. A blowout win tomorrow would also not go amiss.

Mars Hill (8-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 57): In retrospect it is probably the season-opener to Bowie State that might cost Mars Hill the playoffs, not Saturdays loss to CN. Right now they are in a similar situation as LR.

SIAC

Considering how deep the SIAC actually is, it is weird that only 2 teams may make it in, but this conferences second tier definitely beat up on each other. There are 4 teams which are likely to not make it in but still get within vision of the finish line. Albany State got taken off the board, as things just did not improve enough and there are no chances to shine left.

Locks:

Quincy (12-0):

Kentucky State (10-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 22): Won an interesting one over Miles yesterday to take the division.

Work left to do:

Needs help to get an at large:

Lane (8-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 40): I had deemed todays game vs St. Josephs an elimination game. And well, the loss may equal elimination for Lane. And it does severely stain a resume that would otherwise have been rather defensible. Then again, with carnage going on everywhere, maybe there is a way back from this.

Miles (8-4, WIS: 38, SOS: 31): It was a good try, but it was not enough to upset Kentucky State. And while it has already gotten some help, Miles needs even more of it, particularly since they play an 0-12 team tomorrow.

St. Josephs (8-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 18): It seems probable that todays result hurt Lane more than it helped St Josephs. It adds another decent win, but the unnecessary loss to a 4-7 SIM seems to keep outweighing it. Well at least they got within shouting distance of the bubble now.

Bubble Watch day 13:

23 of 24 teams playing tomorrow start from inside the top 32! This means, that if you are currently inside the bubble and not playing, then you are fairly safe. If you are just outside, you can hope that some teams come back while nobody jumps you. But don’t bet too much on it. Todays 32 might very well end up being tomorrows 32.

Especially since there are a whopping 4points separating number 32 and 33 in the WIS rankings.

NCCU (13-0) vs Virginia State (11-2). Bubble implications: zero. The number 1 WIS ranked team vs the 2 time defending the conference champion.

Ferris State (12-1) vs Grand Valley State (13-0): Bubble implications: zero. Ferris State won 6 of the last seven championships. The exception: 2 season ago by a surging GVSU.

Valdosta State (13-0) vs Central Arkansas (10-3) Bubble implications: high. Valdosta came back from a deficit at a half, to get to this game. To go for a third in a row. UCA sits in immediate bubble vicinity. If they win they are safe, but if UCA loses, it is hard to say if the bump from playing a CCG and a 12-1 team will outweigh enough of the loss, particularly if it turns into a beating.

SE Oklahoma Durant (12-1) vs Abilene Christian (12-1): Bubble implications: medium. ACUs situation is similar to that of UCA, with the difference that ACU is slightly further removed from the cut-line and has an opponent that is even higher in the WIS rankings, decreasing the chances of falling completely out by quite a bit.

Lock Haven (13-0) vs NW Missouri State (11-2): Bubble implications: high. Lock Haven is safe, but where NMSU ends up should they lose remains really hard to say. It might be good enough, but safer. Bubble teams will be rooting for Lock Haven.

South Dakota State (13-0) vs Humboldt State (13-0): Bubble implications: high. In theory because the SOS is sooo horrible, Humboldt could maybe fall far with a single loss, but then again, the SOS will get a big bump from playing SDSU. This is funnily enough the only game between unbeaten and the winner is almost certain to get a 4-seed or better.

Bryant vs Stonehill (9-4): Bubble implications: very high. Stonehill is the only team outside the top 32 that plays tomorrow. While it is not totally impossible that Bryant would fall out of the playoffs with a loss, bubble teams will still root for Bryant, as Stonehill winning could mean that both teams are in, and Bryant winning guarantees that only one is. Bryant is the favorite in any case.

UMC (13-0) Northern State (11-2): Bubble implications: high. Because of UMCs stellar record, I don’t think northern falls far if they lose to the big favorite. The problem is that the cut-line is oh so close so there is almost no margin for error.

Indiana (12-1)vs East Stroudsburg (12-1): Bubble implications: zero. The defending national champion didn’t make it to its own conference final. Well can Indiana do it again? Even a national championship on his trajectory had to bow down last season. After missing the playoffs last season, this is a historic success and chance for ESUP, since the school has never won a conference championship in warner.

Western State (12-1) vs Colorado Mines (11-2) Bubble implications: zero. Mines is too far up to fall completely off the map. This is about seeding, and there however, mines would really need a bump if it is to make a run. Western is however a formidable foe and has currently 27 consecutive conference championships.

Glennville (11-2) vs Carson-Newman (12-1): Bubble implications: zero. The SAC had three different conference winners in the las 3 seasons. Can CN put a stranglehold on it, or is Glenville gonna be the one claiming conference supremacy?

Quincy (13-0) vs Kentucky State (11-2): Bubble implications: zero. Quincy has won 4 of thee last 5 conference titles. But guess who has won the other one. Yes Kentucky State, who also won the two before that run.

CIAA

It will be the same as every season in the final: NCCU vs Virginia State.

Locks:

NCCU (13-0), Virginia State (11-2)

Should be in:

Work left:

Elizabeth City (10-3, WIS: 33, SOS: 73): This did not feel like the kind of resume that could take a loss to a SIM, even if it was 9-4 Bowie State. But, look there, because Bowie WAS 9-4 and because the hole between 32^nd and 34^th was pretty big due to the last few days, the damage is surprisingly small, and there remains surprisingly big chance that if a team or two falter, EC might make it in..

GLIAC:

Locks:

Ferris State (12-1),Grand Valley State (13-0):

Should be in:

Work left to do:

Need help:

Saginaw Valley State (9-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 45): Well, two losses in a row is not the way to end the season, and despite it being to a good opponent, SVSU is now on the fringes and needs carnage ahead of it.

GSC

The GSC has definitely become one of the more fun conferences. Harding got taken off the watch, due to another loss.

Locks:

Valdosta State (13-0), Arkansas-Monticello (11-1)

Delta State (10-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 18): Has arrived.

Should be in:

West Alabama (9-4, WIS: 25 SOS: 6): With this SOS, UWA should be fine, it would almost have to rain cats and dogs for them to miss the playoffs.

Work left to do:

Central Arkansas (10-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 32). On a 6 game winning streak, has done what they could in the second half of the season. A loss in the final might be ok, but it is no sure thing.

LSC

Locks:

SE Oklahoma Durant (12-1):

Should be in:

Texas A&M commerce (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 39): Deeply enough on the nice side of things to feel pretty confident, and without chances of any more losses.

Work left to do:

Abilene Christian (12-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 139): The SOS is pretty bad but will be given a lift in the CCG, which I’d tend to assume will be good enough to keep ACU in. But keeping it semi close, just to make completely sure would probably not go amiss.

MIAA

If things go really wrong, the MIAA could end up being a one bid league. NMSU beating Truman might turn out to be some sort of cannibalism. But right now it looks more like a blessing in disguise.

Locks:

Lock Haven (13-0, WIS: 20, SOS: 141): It was not comfortable vs southwest Baptist, but it was enough to get to tomplete safety.

Should be in:

NW Missouri State (11-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 65): Games like today help NMSUs playoff case. They are not safe, because there is a game left and the margin is not so comfortable that I’d want to lock them up, but the chances of surviving a loss tomorrow have slightly increased… and then there is the fact that they may well win tomorrow.

Work left to do:

Truman State (11-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 89): Still square on the bubble, as their OOC opponents let them down lately. But since they haven’t fallen during the last few days carnage they have moved up. Since we are unlikely to see a bid stealer this season, chances are more than 50% that they will stay in.

NCC

I took CWU off, because the WIS ranking did not improve enough.

Locks:

South Dakota State (13-0, WIS: 17, SOS: 140): What a big difference a tiny bit of SOS can make at the lower end. SDSU is safe, and just 4 SOS spots lower, Humboldt is not

Work left:

Humboldt State (13-0, WIS: 26, SOS: 144): It is funny that this is the only conference with two unbeaten teams left. Despite the horrible SOSs, the bump the will receive from playing each other in the CCG should be big enough to counteract any problems that may still arise.

NE-10

Locks:

Long Island (12-1):

Should be in:

Bryant (11-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 67): Beating Long Island sure was a big bubble step forward. I wouldn’t call Bryant completely over the hill though. I assume that losing to Stonehill might be sustainable, but I am not completely sure, primarily since Stonehill is not having the record that ensures the fall would be super small

Work left to do:

Stonehill (9-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 46): As teams have fallen by the wayside, Stonehilld has gotten closer to the cut-line; alas probably not fast enough. It might take winning the Conference to make the field.

NSIC

Locks:

Minnesota Crookston (12-0):

Work left to do:

Northern State (11-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 104): A loss to UMC in the final is maybe sustainable, but it sure will be super close. In fact it might depend whether similar teams (ACU, UCA, NMSU) also lose.

PSAC

The PSAC east will chose its champion on the last day. But overall the conference risks having only 4 teams in again. West Chesters 4^th loss took them off the board

Locks:

Indiana (12-1), Millersville (11-2), East Stroudsburg (12-1): Mansfield (11-2):

Work left to do:

Kutztown (9-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 8): Having finished its work, Kutztown is now on the sidelines and waiting. They start decision day on the right side of things, but it takes so little movement in the wrong direction.

RMAC

Any betting man would say that two teams will make it in.

Locks:

Western State (11-1)

Colorado Mines (11-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 50): The only losses are to SEO and Western, nothing to be ashamed of, and rock solid otherwise. Can’t fall far with the opponent it has, and there is enough room to feel comfortable now. Will get another shot at western on Tuesday.

SAC

I took Lenoir-Rhyne off the board, since the WIS rankings did not improve enough

Locks:

Glennville (11-2), Carson-Newman (12-1): Both secured the playoffs vs their primary adversaries in division yesterday. The SAC had three different conference winners in the las 3 seasons. Can CN put a stranglehold on it, or is Glenville gonna be the one claiming conference supremacy?

Need help:

Mars Hill (9-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 49): In retrospect it is probably the season-opener to Bowie State that might cost Mars Hill the playoffs, not Saturdays loss to CN. Right now they are on the outside looking in. they need some help, but not so much, that it is unimaginable that it could happen.

Lenoir-Rhyne (10-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 96): With a 9-3 record and a SOS where it is, LR should be closer to the line, but it definitely has a serious MOV problem: the wins over bad opponents were just consistently too close for comfort, todays 2 point win was a perfect example. As a consequence LR needs carnage above it.

SIAC

Considering how deep the SIAC actually is, it is weird that only 2 teams may make it in, but this conferences second tier definitely beat up on each other.  After possibly eliminating Lane, St Josephs lost an easy one again today and got eliminated.

Locks:

Quincy (13-0), Kentucky State (11-2):

Work left to do:

Lane (9-4, WIS: 34, SOS: 38): Despite its loss to St Josephs yesterday, Lane is now again in the vicinity of making the playoffs. They still need some events to go right though: Stonehill does not win, and a plurality of teams like Northern State, UCA, ACU, NMSU lose, and if the dice fall right, then Lane could get in. It does not all have to happen either, but it does take more than one thing to go right.