simulation algorithm Topic

I have 1968 Bob Gibson, how does he have 6.89 ERA in 4 games and give almost as many runs as the entire 1968 season 514 games.
9/28/2015 10:49 PM
It's only been 4 games.  I guarantee he finishes the season with an ERA well below 6.89
9/28/2015 11:02 PM
Posted by skunk206 on 9/28/2015 11:02:00 PM (view original):
It's only been 4 games.  I guarantee he finishes the season with an ERA well below 6.89
And even if he doesn't, 54 games is still a small sample size and open leagues are 80 mill -- most MLB teams come out around 60 mill in quality (if a little more in actual salary, because of bad IP/PA distributions and being limited themselves)
9/29/2015 9:05 PM
I saw Gibby give up 9 runs in the first inning. He tipped his cap and the crowd cheered...
9/29/2015 9:15 PM
knieman, what kind of league is it? 

If it is an Open League, he is pitching against all the best hitters in history, so he won't end up with a 1.12 ERA. 

But skunk206, one of THE most experienced and knowledgeable people here, is giving you good counsel: 4 games is a very small sample size. Any pitcher has 2-3 bad games in a row, even the very best. So 4 is well within probability. 

If you are looking for leagues where having Bob Gibson 1968 means having the best pitcher in baseball, look for a Progressive League in an era you are interested in playing in. 
9/30/2015 4:28 PM
I understand sample size. It is now 6 games and 8.05. I do not think the simulation has the right algorithm. I will wait and see.
9/30/2015 8:32 PM
Granted it's early, but again, Gibson is going against much better teams and lineup's than he ever face..........Let's put it the other way...take '41 Ted Williams.....if he is only batting .300, does he suck or have a bad algorithm, or he just going against some of the best pitchers ever?
9/30/2015 9:13 PM
simulation algorithm Topic

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