The State of HBD Topic

pajammies
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Without knowing how you guys specifically drafted, I can't speak to your own experience. I just know for me the draft changed from involving:
  • Taking current ratings into consideration
  • Taking projections into consideration
  • Taking age into consideration
  • Taking my budgets into consideration
to:
  • Taking projections into consideration
  • Taking my budgets into consideration
  • Making note of any obvious outliers
And that last bullet point isn't even that helpful. I'll generate a red flag for guys that, like I said, have 40 durability and 100 stamina. But what about the guy who looks like he has 25 durability and 85 stamina, who will end up with 15 durability and 65 stamina? There's no way to find that player, unless you pay $20m.

10/2/2015 11:47 AM
MikeT23
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So you can't pay 20m or you don't want to pay 20m?

To compare to real life, you pay the best scouts(20m) and, more than likely, get the best results.   You hire so so scouts(10m) and read HS box scores, you don't so as well.
10/2/2015 11:59 AM
pajammies
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Yep I will be paying $20m. But I would say they've removed a number of "confidence levels" in player evaluation. Before, if you wanted to put in $10m, see fewer players, and do more work comparing their projected peak vs your own predictions, you could make some of it work. Now, if you have anything less than $16m, you are at the mercy of a random number generator and that's basically it.
10/2/2015 12:07 PM
MikeT23
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Well, what I'm reading is that you now have to pay premium $$$ in order to get what you want from the draft.

Which, frankly, compares to every other aspect of HBD.
Top IFA require big money.
Best FA require big money.
Best injury recovery requires big money.
Best player development requires big money.

Now the draft fits right in.

To somewhat echo what josh said, I no longer think "Bah, I'm picking 29th.   The draft isn't going to give me anything more than a solid bench guy."   I think if I put some money into scouting, I might get a full-time starter at 29.

10/2/2015 12:16 PM
damag
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I, like everyone else, freaked out when I realized they were removing visible current ratings.  Because it made me realize something I hadn't - namely, that without even intending to, I had begun drafting more off of currents than projections.  Projections have always been untrustworthy to a certain degree, which is IMO part of the learning curve for the HBD user.  But without even thinking, hey this should be saving me some money, I had already begun the process pajammies suggests of comparing with currents.
At some point, I'd have realized - I was in the process of realizing - that I didn't need projections at all.

10/2/2015 12:22 PM
MikeT23
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I always ranked off projections then adjusted based on currents/age.   Now I rank off projections, because it's all I have, and increase my scouting when I do budgeting.   I think I've found my comfort level at 16m as a base.   When I expect to win, and need budget space, I'll drop it to 12m.   When I'm not as optimistic, I'll raise it to 20m. 
10/2/2015 12:30 PM
pajammies
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Well, either way I still enjoy the game and hope that I end up liking the changes to prospect scouting as much as you guys do.

One thing I don't understand, however, is why WIS didn't start with making prospect development patterns more varied? Seeing current ratings of draft prospects is only a problem because most of us know how much better they'll get because progression is so predictable. It seems if they varied development, all of the scouting categories take on more value, AND folks can try to zero scouting budgets and hope they predict correctly based on currents.

I've heard rumors WIS has adjusted development patterns -- anyone know if this is actually the case? Maybe my $16m projections ARE decently accurate, they just don't appear to be because of development pattern changes?
10/2/2015 12:36 PM
MikeT23
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The update is too recent to know if development patterns changed.   I've had a 29 y/o player develop more than I'd have expected(they used to gain some skill points from time to time) and had a 31 y/o take a steep decline.    Can't recall seeing either of those happen before.

10/2/2015 12:42 PM
deandg
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I am in the middle of trying to help two leagues fill. It is frustrating. 

I happen to earn my living online with a totally unrelated website. I am so desperate I put some WIS, HBD specific, advertising on my site last night. I will probably take it down today. I get around 40,000 visitors a day but... it just doesn't fit.

WIS certainly isn't giving much incentive to keep it up there either. One of the biggest problems is that there is no real incentive for word of mouth advertising. The payout is terrible. 20% one time with ZERO recurring commissions on people you bring to the game. I don't know if the $4.95 first season is still going on, but if you got someone to take advantage of that, as an affiliate, you would be paid 99 cents one time and get ZERO cut of hundreds or thousands of dollars that they may spend in the future.

Greed destroys businesses. WIS isn't concerned guys and that is the biggest problem. If they were concerned then they would be bending over backwards to reward those who make referrals, find other ways to market the product, etc.

I feel what all of you feel, because I love this dumb game. But until they care at WIS headquarters, none of it matters.
10/3/2015 5:28 AM
joshkvt
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Someone spends hundreds of thousands of dollars here? If all of your worlds started with no delay, you'd have to run 30 teams at a time for 50 years to hit $100K.

Sure, referrals could be boosted. But getting a world you enjoy to fill is more incentive than $1 would be, so why would they? We care about the game more than Fox does. If/when people start leaving the site because too many worlds won't fill, they might do something. That's not happening right now, at lest not i a number large enough to make action on their part necessary. Good worlds fill quickly. Mediocre worlds fill eventually. Tard worlds merge or die. As long as enough of the owners from Tard worlds eventually move into Mediocre worlds, Fox has no reason to do much. If it were more profitable for them to promote WIS on their fantasy and other sites than it is for whatever ad system they use, they'd do it. They'll pump enough resources into the game to prevent wholesale departures, and no more.
10/3/2015 10:59 AM (edited)
plague
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With the current state of HBD I wouldn't take on another commish job. Last season I spent 20+ hours researching owners and sending sitemails hoping to recruit qualified owners and this season looks to be just as depressing, in the past I would spend 1-4 hours to fill worlds. It seems like worlds have resorted to world swapping or free credits as a method to fill their world. Is that a viable long term strategy to filling worlds?

It does seem we have a overabundance of worlds, however I think its a faulty assumption that a owner will move on to another world if his world is consolidated. I don't think cutting worlds by itself is the long term answer. I personally would not take on another team if they cut the world I was playing in. I am just 1 customer but since I only have 1 team I would be done with HBD and I would be a lost customer.

Based on the $24.95 a season model WIS makes about $9 a day that the world is active. They give credits etc so in reality its probably closer to $7-8 a day. That means every day a world is idle they are not getting that $7-8 a day. Even though you already paid for the current season every idle day delays the start of future seasons by a day which means future money is not paid. WIS makes a lot more money if a world has 4 seasons in a calendar year compared to 2 seasons in a calendar year.

WIS is currently focused on attracting new owners to the game. Experienced worlds want experienced owners, long term survival of a world is dependent on the quality of owners brought into a world. I understand that everyone at some point is a first time owner, but there is open worlds for these owners to learn to play the game and develop a history that will make them more attractive to more experienced worlds. HD and GD have a system in place for inexperienced owners, its called Division 2 and 3..

I am not going to say the sky is falling, but the path seems to be on a downward not upward path. The long term success of HBD would be better off coming up with a strategy to fill these worlds compared to letting these worlds sit idle for weeks. Every day they do nothing leads us a little further down the path, the farther you get down the path the longer it will take to get back. I estimate that for every 3-4 days a world sits idle they would of made more money by giving away a team for free compared to letting that world sit idle.  That's not even taking into consideration how lengthy idle times effect the owners that currently stay in the world waiting for the world to fill up..
10/3/2015 4:08 PM (edited)
deandg
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Posted by joshkvt on 10/3/2015 10:59:00 AM (view original):
Someone spends hundreds of thousands of dollars here? If all of your worlds started with no delay, you'd have to run 30 teams at a time for 50 years to hit $100K.

Sure, referrals could be boosted. But getting a world you enjoy to fill is more incentive than $1 would be, so why would they? We care about the game more than Fox does. If/when people start leaving the site because too many worlds won't fill, they might do something. That's not happening right now, at lest not i a number large enough to make action on their part necessary. Good worlds fill quickly. Mediocre worlds fill eventually. Tard worlds merge or die. As long as enough of the owners from Tard worlds eventually move into Mediocre worlds, Fox has no reason to do much. If it were more profitable for them to promote WIS on their fantasy and other sites than it is for whatever ad system they use, they'd do it. They'll pump enough resources into the game to prevent wholesale departures, and no more.
If you are referring to my post I said, "hundreds OR thousands of dollars"

But you do make some good points. However I do feel there are some wholesale departures happening now. Here is what I can tell you. I was MIA for 3-5 human years and came back to the game in the spring. In the spring there were a handful of leagues that seemed to be having problems. I am trying to help fill two leagues now and it seems that the problem is worsening. More leagues and more openings per league seems to be the rule versus 3 or 4 months ago. That's a small sample size I know, but that's how it appears to me.
10/3/2015 9:32 PM (edited)
joshkvt
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Whoops. Was reading on my phone. That makes more sense.
10/3/2015 9:44 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by plague on 10/3/2015 4:08:00 PM (view original):
With the current state of HBD I wouldn't take on another commish job. Last season I spent 20+ hours researching owners and sending sitemails hoping to recruit qualified owners and this season looks to be just as depressing, in the past I would spend 1-4 hours to fill worlds. It seems like worlds have resorted to world swapping or free credits as a method to fill their world. Is that a viable long term strategy to filling worlds?

It does seem we have a overabundance of worlds, however I think its a faulty assumption that a owner will move on to another world if his world is consolidated. I don't think cutting worlds by itself is the long term answer. I personally would not take on another team if they cut the world I was playing in. I am just 1 customer but since I only have 1 team I would be done with HBD and I would be a lost customer.

Based on the $24.95 a season model WIS makes about $9 a day that the world is active. They give credits etc so in reality its probably closer to $7-8 a day. That means every day a world is idle they are not getting that $7-8 a day. Even though you already paid for the current season every idle day delays the start of future seasons by a day which means future money is not paid. WIS makes a lot more money if a world has 4 seasons in a calendar year compared to 2 seasons in a calendar year.

WIS is currently focused on attracting new owners to the game. Experienced worlds want experienced owners, long term survival of a world is dependent on the quality of owners brought into a world. I understand that everyone at some point is a first time owner, but there is open worlds for these owners to learn to play the game and develop a history that will make them more attractive to more experienced worlds. HD and GD have a system in place for inexperienced owners, its called Division 2 and 3..

I am not going to say the sky is falling, but the path seems to be on a downward not upward path. The long term success of HBD would be better off coming up with a strategy to fill these worlds compared to letting these worlds sit idle for weeks. Every day they do nothing leads us a little further down the path, the farther you get down the path the longer it will take to get back. I estimate that for every 3-4 days a world sits idle they would of made more money by giving away a team for free compared to letting that world sit idle.  That's not even taking into consideration how lengthy idle times effect the owners that currently stay in the world waiting for the world to fill up..
You hit on something with the long, rambling post.   "$7-8 a day"

How much effort would you put into making another $8 per day?   Then say "I'm FOX" and ask yourself the question again.
10/5/2015 2:34 PM
ghutton9
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/5/2015 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by plague on 10/3/2015 4:08:00 PM (view original):
With the current state of HBD I wouldn't take on another commish job. Last season I spent 20+ hours researching owners and sending sitemails hoping to recruit qualified owners and this season looks to be just as depressing, in the past I would spend 1-4 hours to fill worlds. It seems like worlds have resorted to world swapping or free credits as a method to fill their world. Is that a viable long term strategy to filling worlds?

It does seem we have a overabundance of worlds, however I think its a faulty assumption that a owner will move on to another world if his world is consolidated. I don't think cutting worlds by itself is the long term answer. I personally would not take on another team if they cut the world I was playing in. I am just 1 customer but since I only have 1 team I would be done with HBD and I would be a lost customer.

Based on the $24.95 a season model WIS makes about $9 a day that the world is active. They give credits etc so in reality its probably closer to $7-8 a day. That means every day a world is idle they are not getting that $7-8 a day. Even though you already paid for the current season every idle day delays the start of future seasons by a day which means future money is not paid. WIS makes a lot more money if a world has 4 seasons in a calendar year compared to 2 seasons in a calendar year.

WIS is currently focused on attracting new owners to the game. Experienced worlds want experienced owners, long term survival of a world is dependent on the quality of owners brought into a world. I understand that everyone at some point is a first time owner, but there is open worlds for these owners to learn to play the game and develop a history that will make them more attractive to more experienced worlds. HD and GD have a system in place for inexperienced owners, its called Division 2 and 3..

I am not going to say the sky is falling, but the path seems to be on a downward not upward path. The long term success of HBD would be better off coming up with a strategy to fill these worlds compared to letting these worlds sit idle for weeks. Every day they do nothing leads us a little further down the path, the farther you get down the path the longer it will take to get back. I estimate that for every 3-4 days a world sits idle they would of made more money by giving away a team for free compared to letting that world sit idle.  That's not even taking into consideration how lengthy idle times effect the owners that currently stay in the world waiting for the world to fill up..
You hit on something with the long, rambling post.   "$7-8 a day"

How much effort would you put into making another $8 per day?   Then say "I'm FOX" and ask yourself the question again.
$8X365=$2920

$2920 X average worlds with openings per day(guess about 30, which is low right now)=$87,600. 

I know $87,600 is chump change for FOX, but that's quite a bit of money to be throwing away.

Just reading this and happened to notice the flawed logic.
10/5/2015 4:03 PM
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