The State of HBD Topic

MikeT23
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Posted by ghutton9 on 10/5/2015 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/5/2015 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by plague on 10/3/2015 4:08:00 PM (view original):
With the current state of HBD I wouldn't take on another commish job. Last season I spent 20+ hours researching owners and sending sitemails hoping to recruit qualified owners and this season looks to be just as depressing, in the past I would spend 1-4 hours to fill worlds. It seems like worlds have resorted to world swapping or free credits as a method to fill their world. Is that a viable long term strategy to filling worlds?

It does seem we have a overabundance of worlds, however I think its a faulty assumption that a owner will move on to another world if his world is consolidated. I don't think cutting worlds by itself is the long term answer. I personally would not take on another team if they cut the world I was playing in. I am just 1 customer but since I only have 1 team I would be done with HBD and I would be a lost customer.

Based on the $24.95 a season model WIS makes about $9 a day that the world is active. They give credits etc so in reality its probably closer to $7-8 a day. That means every day a world is idle they are not getting that $7-8 a day. Even though you already paid for the current season every idle day delays the start of future seasons by a day which means future money is not paid. WIS makes a lot more money if a world has 4 seasons in a calendar year compared to 2 seasons in a calendar year.

WIS is currently focused on attracting new owners to the game. Experienced worlds want experienced owners, long term survival of a world is dependent on the quality of owners brought into a world. I understand that everyone at some point is a first time owner, but there is open worlds for these owners to learn to play the game and develop a history that will make them more attractive to more experienced worlds. HD and GD have a system in place for inexperienced owners, its called Division 2 and 3..

I am not going to say the sky is falling, but the path seems to be on a downward not upward path. The long term success of HBD would be better off coming up with a strategy to fill these worlds compared to letting these worlds sit idle for weeks. Every day they do nothing leads us a little further down the path, the farther you get down the path the longer it will take to get back. I estimate that for every 3-4 days a world sits idle they would of made more money by giving away a team for free compared to letting that world sit idle.  That's not even taking into consideration how lengthy idle times effect the owners that currently stay in the world waiting for the world to fill up..
You hit on something with the long, rambling post.   "$7-8 a day"

How much effort would you put into making another $8 per day?   Then say "I'm FOX" and ask yourself the question again.
$8X365=$2920

$2920 X average worlds with openings per day(guess about 30, which is low right now)=$87,600. 

I know $87,600 is chump change for FOX, but that's quite a bit of money to be throwing away.

Just reading this and happened to notice the flawed logic.

The "solution" was to give away teams.    By your math, $87,600 worth of teams.

Just saying there's no significant financial gain, or any other type of gain, for WifS/FOX, in the solutions.

10/5/2015 4:08 PM
plague
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/5/2015 4:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ghutton9 on 10/5/2015 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/5/2015 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by plague on 10/3/2015 4:08:00 PM (view original):
With the current state of HBD I wouldn't take on another commish job. Last season I spent 20+ hours researching owners and sending sitemails hoping to recruit qualified owners and this season looks to be just as depressing, in the past I would spend 1-4 hours to fill worlds. It seems like worlds have resorted to world swapping or free credits as a method to fill their world. Is that a viable long term strategy to filling worlds?

It does seem we have a overabundance of worlds, however I think its a faulty assumption that a owner will move on to another world if his world is consolidated. I don't think cutting worlds by itself is the long term answer. I personally would not take on another team if they cut the world I was playing in. I am just 1 customer but since I only have 1 team I would be done with HBD and I would be a lost customer.

Based on the $24.95 a season model WIS makes about $9 a day that the world is active. They give credits etc so in reality its probably closer to $7-8 a day. That means every day a world is idle they are not getting that $7-8 a day. Even though you already paid for the current season every idle day delays the start of future seasons by a day which means future money is not paid. WIS makes a lot more money if a world has 4 seasons in a calendar year compared to 2 seasons in a calendar year.

WIS is currently focused on attracting new owners to the game. Experienced worlds want experienced owners, long term survival of a world is dependent on the quality of owners brought into a world. I understand that everyone at some point is a first time owner, but there is open worlds for these owners to learn to play the game and develop a history that will make them more attractive to more experienced worlds. HD and GD have a system in place for inexperienced owners, its called Division 2 and 3..

I am not going to say the sky is falling, but the path seems to be on a downward not upward path. The long term success of HBD would be better off coming up with a strategy to fill these worlds compared to letting these worlds sit idle for weeks. Every day they do nothing leads us a little further down the path, the farther you get down the path the longer it will take to get back. I estimate that for every 3-4 days a world sits idle they would of made more money by giving away a team for free compared to letting that world sit idle.  That's not even taking into consideration how lengthy idle times effect the owners that currently stay in the world waiting for the world to fill up..
You hit on something with the long, rambling post.   "$7-8 a day"

How much effort would you put into making another $8 per day?   Then say "I'm FOX" and ask yourself the question again.
$8X365=$2920

$2920 X average worlds with openings per day(guess about 30, which is low right now)=$87,600. 

I know $87,600 is chump change for FOX, but that's quite a bit of money to be throwing away.

Just reading this and happened to notice the flawed logic.

The "solution" was to give away teams.    By your math, $87,600 worth of teams.

Just saying there's no significant financial gain, or any other type of gain, for WifS/FOX, in the solutions.

I understand FOX is rich, . I can only do what I can do so I put forth my comments and suggestions. If WIS feels there is not a problem or they have a different path they wish to go then nothing I can do about that. In the meantime I have 2 choices and that is too recruit or quit. As long as the current owners are willing to wait I will keep recruiting.

I think long term for HBD the lengthy waits for rollovers are not a good thing, and the only thing WIS seems to be concentrating on is searching for new owners which in my opinion is not desirable or good for established worlds. Retracting worlds too meet demand may be a path to consider, but if they rid the game of my world I have no desire to move to another world or combine with another world. The other path is too come up with something that will fill these worlds with experienced owners. Or the 3rd option and let things play out and see what happens. In my opinion the 3rd option will continue a downward path and I personally don't think the upcoming update is going to entice many new owners to play.

Seems like most of these worlds are filling because of "If you get someone willing to join my world I will get someone to join your world." I don't see that as a viable long term plan to fill worlds.

10/6/2015 12:39 AM (edited)
MikeT23
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Point is, the solutions being offered reduce profit for an already low profit margin item.    Almost all of them are "give away teams" or "reduce cost".   While 87k is a good amount for an individual, a company the size of FOX doesn't even know it exists.   I've thought for quite some time that WifS would just up and disappear one day.   Maybe SLB produces money.   Or, maybe as a whole, WifS shows enough profit to keep it going.   Either way, HBD is not a cash cow.  Using your $8 per day estimation, WifS makes less than $700 per each completed season.    There is just no reason for a large company to put a lot of resources into it.
10/6/2015 8:45 AM
pajammies
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I would think just having a programmer and handful of customer support folks would quickly eliminate any profit from that $87k per year...
10/6/2015 9:44 AM
MikeT23
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Good point.   I didn't even bother doing the math.   A world of owners, at full price($24.99), grosses $800 a season.   No way is the profit, after credits/expenses, around $700 per season.   If WifS has expenses at 50%, they make $400 per season or about $4.50 per day.   And, if they have expenses at 50%, they have a very good business model.

10/6/2015 9:50 AM
joshkvt
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Low expenses is likely the biggest reason the plug hasn't yet been pulled. The idle private worlds have about $14,000 worth of paid-for teams sitting around waiting. A corporation is not going to view that as a problem, even if we do.
10/6/2015 11:04 AM
MikeT23
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That makes the most sense.    "Bah, it only costs us a few dollars per day to keep a world open.   Don't worry with it."

Of couse, some day some bigwig might be looking at an expense report and say "WTF is this WifS thing?" then "We make what on it?  Shut that **** down."
10/6/2015 11:40 AM
hockey1984
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Do you think if that happens, we would be re-embursed for pre-paid teams or are we all screwed?
10/6/2015 12:01 PM
joshkvt
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Assuming that they'd want to minimize hassle, they'd announce that they are shutting down when all in-progress games are completed. They might try to pay people off with FoxSports credits of some sort, but it would probably be more cost-effective for them to just refund everyone rather than deal with the complaints and inevitably successful chargebacks.
10/6/2015 12:09 PM
gotigers17
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Hard for me to believe that HBD is an expense.  I figure they have a potential revenue with 167 leagues of about $350k (if there was no wait time at all).  With 25% of the leagues waiting to fill lets say for argument sake that on average each league is playing 3 seasons a year instead of 4.  That lowers the revenue to about $260k. 

With revenue of $260k and expenses fairly low (since most of development of this game happened years ago) WifS could be profiting $100k to $150k a year off this game alone even with the lower participation.  

Our problem is that the opportunity is pretty low from Fox's perspective.  Lets say everything goes right and in two years there are 200 leagues that are all humming along and filling.  That would be something like revenue of $400k but what would it cost to get to that level of revenue?  Marketing campaigns are pretty expensive and if Fox concludes it would cost $100k in marketing expense to increase revenue by $140k why would they bother?  

I personally think it is most likely that the lights stay on as long as the game turns a profit, and updates/ mobile transitions are small expenses intended to keep that profit coming.  Any hope of a big marketing campaign hinges on what Fox considers the opportunity to be.  Unless someone figures that they can get this game up to over 200 leagues that fill on time every time I just don't see a marketing campaign happening.
10/6/2015 12:28 PM
willsauve
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You wouldnt get back what you think.. I recently tried to transfer my unused teams to another account and the process is done through a refund screen and you do not get credit for your site credits on this process.. I had 10-15 teams at the time and after deduction of the credits I was only getting like $40 which was less than $4/team.. So to transfers 10+ teams I would only end up with maybe 2 teams under the new account.. 
10/6/2015 12:32 PM
joshkvt
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If they pull the plug they'd have to consider chargebacks, which are a different process and carry a cost to prevent. If you decide you're done with WIS and demand a refund, they aren't required to do a thing. If they end the game, you call your credit card co. to dispute the charge for non-delivery of what you paid for. WIS would then have to prove to the credit card co. that you're not entitled to a refund. Even if WIS thought it could win the chargeback dispute, it would probably cost more to do so than it would save. If concerned about the plug being pulled, paying with a credit card instead of debit card would be wise.
10/6/2015 12:52 PM
MikeT23
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I'm not suggesting that they are considering pulling the plug.   Just that they're not making what plague suggested.   Or that HBD is all that profitable to anyone.   We like the game but it's not a big money-maker.   There's really no justifiable reason for them to run ads during the WS/playoffs.   Or even present some huge marketing campaign via flyers on car windows at the mall.    It's just not worth the expense.   Which is one reason I think "Lower the cost" and "give away teams" are horrible ideas.   Turning low profit into no profit is a poor business model. 

Truth is, it would be better for them, and us, if they sold the game to an individual.    I'd work pretty hard for 260k year running HBD. 
10/6/2015 1:17 PM
gotigers17
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I agree with that 100% Mike.  If there were one or two people earning a living off the game the whole opportunity scheme changes.  That person would almost certainly be willing to take some chances to get revenue from $260k up to $400k because the payoff would be really meaningful even if profit only increased by say 30 or 50k in the first years due to expense increases. 
10/6/2015 1:49 PM (edited)
hockey1984
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Do you feel like one good programmer could keep up with WIS or even just HBD without help?

(Legit asking. I don't know what day to day programming for the site and engine would be)
10/6/2015 2:00 PM
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