I've got a guy demanding $10.2M in his first arbitration season. Does anyone have any suggestions on what a reasonable offer would be? I don't want to go too low and get stuck with that $10.2M.

For what it's worth, he's a former 1/1 pick and a one-time all-star, 85 OVR. 

 

There's no magic formula that I know of to determine a "winning" lower arbitration offer.

I'd go with the greater of the "average" demand for a similar player (displayed on the arbitration page), or 80-85% of his demand.  And maybe light a candle and rub a rabbit's foot.

It's his second arb. His first arb was for the minimum presumably due to his lack of playing time the year before.

Thanks, bighead. I should read better.

85% is a decently successful target if you want to win the hearing.  You won't win them all.  I've offered 90% and lost and 70% and won so it varies.  I think there are several factors at play.

If you win at arbitration, be prepared to pay a hefty premium the following season.  Our fake players don't like to "lose" at arbitration and will take it out on you the following season with their demand.  Personally, I only negotiate at arb if I am pretty certain I am releasing the guy the next season or its his third arb and I have no interest in signing him long term.  

I don't think that's true.    I don't think our fake players remember losing at arb and make higher demands the following season.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/8/2015 10:19:00 AM (view original):
I don't think that's true.    I don't think our fake players remember losing at arb and make higher demands the following season.

Agreed.  The only thing the fake players don't like is being taken to arbitration three times.

So why are this guy's demands so high then?

You're talking about Daniel Ray Jordan?

https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=6118964

This isn't his first arb year. He has 4 seasons of ML experience, so it's his second year. $10.5 is high but not unheard-of for a player in his second arb year. I don't think I've ever seen more than $3 million in the first.

His demands are high because he is a very good player.

i've had a few very good players...some with even higher overall ratings than jordan, and i've never seen a second year arb demand that high, but then again i've never had a player with that high an overall rating get a first year arb of the minimum...it's almost as if the two are related somehow

Pretty sure they are not. 

care to proffer an explanation? 

This would be the first thing: 

Total Seasons:

154

It seems like, during that time, something like that would have jumped out at me.    I've never been surprised by an arb demand.   With Jordan's 85 overall, I have expected a 7-9m demand but 10.2m is not the highest I've seen.    It just doesn't look out of place.   Using the logic being mentioned, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Desi Gonzalez should be asking for a King's Fortune next year.   He'll sign a 2y deal for 4.2m each.   That seems in line despite his repeated low arbitrations. 

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Diory Bennett is practically the same guy on the same team and he's asking 2/4.6m each.