He's on the verge of being the best third baseman in baseball and has 3 years of team control left. Trading him would be colossally dumb. They still have plenty of time to extend him, or if they were to trade him, they can do it in a year or two when he'll be better and his value will be even greater.

Do you know why their farm system is bare? Because all the highly ranked prospects are now on the ML team. They now have 2-4 years to restock the system, which is ample time. There is talent in the organization, it's just a couple years away still (Harvey, if he stays healthy; Cisco; Mountcastle could be good; Mancini). You were probably calling for a rebuild before 2014, too. 

As for Davis, I agree with you. I personally would have used that money on Upton and/or Cespedes. Heyward is hugely overrated. The guy has a career .268 BA and .784 OPS in 6 ML seasons. He's done very little at the plate, and people somehow think he's going to turn into a stud. B-R has him compared to Jeff Franceour and Delmon Young through Age 25 season. That's awesome, right? He's Nick Markakis - you'd be paying a shitload of money for a lot of defense in RF. 

People don't think he's somehow going to turn into a stud.  People who recognize that baseball players do more than one thing recognize that he's already a stud.

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/13/2016 12:22:00 PM (view original):
People don't think he's somehow going to turn into a stud.  People who recognize that baseball players do more than one thing recognize that he's already a stud.

I guess Nick Markakis is a stud then. 

If you'd rather have a great defensive COF with a mediocre bat, that's fine. I'll take Davis. And now that Heyward is in CF, his defensive value won't be as great.

If you think Jason Heyward and Nick Markakis are equivalent defenders you're even more stupid than I thought.  And I thought you were pretty stupid.

Lemme guess..."BUT WAR!!!!!!" I prefer looking at tangible stats. 

Markakis for his career:

13,089 innings, 19 errors (1 error/689 innings), 97 assists (1 assist/135 innings), 2.12 chances/game

Heyward for his career:

6,989 innings, 21 errors (1 error/322 innings), 43 assists (1 assist/162 innings), 2.2 chances/game

So, over the course of a season, Heyward gets to ~12-15 more balls, but he makes errors at twice the rate and Nick has a slightly better arm. 

Regardless of what the lovely flawed dWAR metric says, they are very much comparable defenders. 

If they had played in the same parks with the same pitching staffs your numbers would have meaning.  Since that isn't the case, they don't.

Have you watched Heyward play?  I'm guessing not.  Even you are intelligent enough to know when you're seeing greatness.

Base runners tend to run more on outfielders with weaker arms, thus giving the weaker armed outfielders more opportunities for assists.  Which artificially inflates the number of assists that they actually get.

You can't just look at raw numbers without understanding context.

Markakis has a better arm than Heyward.  Doesn't make up for the enormous difference in range.

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/14/2016 12:37:00 AM (view original):
Markakis has a better arm than Heyward.  Doesn't make up for the enormous difference in range.

Enormous? I just gave you the stats. 2.2 chances/game for Heyward. 2.12/game for Markakis.

That equates to 8 more chances per hundred games. Or 13 or 14 over the course of a season. So great...Heyward gets to 14 more balls than Nick. He also makes errors at twice the rate. An edge in range doesn't mean much when you screw up twice as often as the other guy. 

And we'll see how Heyward's range plays now that he's in CF. It's foolish to claim that Davis isn't worth his contract (and I agree, he isn't), but then turn around and say Heyward is worth every bit of his. He's a mediocre hitter, and great COF defense is worth nowhere near what he got. If that defensive excellence transfers to CF, I may change my tune. But as of this moment, based on his career to date, he's way overpaid.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/13/2016 9:59:00 PM (view original):
Base runners tend to run more on outfielders with weaker arms, thus giving the weaker armed outfielders more opportunities for assists.  Which artificially inflates the number of assists that they actually get.

You can't just look at raw numbers without understanding context.

Markakis has a fantastic arm. Try watching baseball sometime.

If you assume the range factor is the same thing as range, then, as I suggested earlier, you've reached a new height of stupidity.

Over the course Nick Markakis' time in Baltimore, the Orioles had the 2nd most extreme flyball pitching staff in baseball.  Atlanta wasn't #1, or even close to it.  More flyballs = greater range factor, irrespective of actual range (the on-field tool).  Jason Heyward is the most valuable defensive player in baseball over the past 5 years, and it isn't particularly close.

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/14/2016 1:07:00 AM (view original):
If you assume the range factor is the same thing as range, then, as I suggested earlier, you've reached a new height of stupidity.

Over the course Nick Markakis' time in Baltimore, the Orioles had the 2nd most extreme flyball pitching staff in baseball.  Atlanta wasn't #1, or even close to it.  More flyballs = greater range factor, irrespective of actual range (the on-field tool).  Jason Heyward is the most valuable defensive player in baseball over the past 5 years, and it isn't particularly close.

How would you compare range?

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/14/2016 1:07:00 AM (view original):
If you assume the range factor is the same thing as range, then, as I suggested earlier, you've reached a new height of stupidity.

Over the course Nick Markakis' time in Baltimore, the Orioles had the 2nd most extreme flyball pitching staff in baseball.  Atlanta wasn't #1, or even close to it.  More flyballs = greater range factor, irrespective of actual range (the on-field tool).  Jason Heyward is the most valuable defensive player in baseball over the past 5 years, and it isn't particularly close.

A COF being the most valuable defender in the game - that's cute. And since you're a saber guy - why has he only finished Top 10 twice in his six years in dWAR? And never higher than fourth? You keep calling me stupid, but I challenge you to find me 3 people who would agree that Heyward has been the most valuable defender in the game in that span. Just because an idea exists in your head, doesn't make everyone else stupid - just makes you a fool.

Markakis has had over 3000 chances in his career and made 19 errors. Heyward has had 1700 chances and has already made 21 errors. As I said, an advantage in range doesn't mean much if you botch plays at twice the rate the other guy does. 

I think Alex Gordon is a good comp for Heyward as an all around player. Though in the same number of chances, Gordon has 8 fewer errors and 23 more assists. Their offensive stats are close too. Are you saying Gordon has been an absolute stud? Gordon is active leader in Range Factor/9 innings and Range Factor/Game among LFs. Heyward is 4th and 7th respectively among RFs. Which means there are better RFs in the game, much less better defenders.

Wow are we really discussing the Orioles?

It's more of a runaway than I thought.  UZR has Heyward at 89.2 since 2011.  2nd place is Andrelton Simmons at 68.4, and Gordon is 3rd at 67.2.  DRS has Simmons ahead of Heyward.  I personally have always felt that UZR is the most accurate comprehensive defensive stat, but I think a lot of people tend to lean on DRS now.  So I guess you could argue that stats have Heyward as the 2nd-most valuable defensive player in baseball over the past 5 seasons...

If Simmons and Machado stayed healthy and played everyday, they'd probably be the most valuable defenders in baseball.  But other than those guys and Kiermaier, I can't think of anybody similarly impressive to watch play than Heyward right now.  Again, my guess is, if you don't agree, you haven't watched enough of Heyward's games.