For anyone who cares, or is interested...here is my list of steals and reaches so far in the draft. Don't take anything personally. I am not dissing anyone's draft strategy or baseball knowledge. Just one man's opinion. Your mileage may vary.
Round one
Steal: Nap Lajoie 10th. Could have been a top 5. Best season in the SIM at a position where there aren't a ton of those.
Reach: Claude Hendrix 18th. Great season with 1.69 ERA BUT with a .203 OAV against him that year, he will get hit around. Were better choices at that point.
most likely to underperform: Barry Bonds. Those #'s are unreal, but he always seems to fall worfully short of RL.
Round two
Steal: Stan Musial 27th. Amazing he was a 2nd round pick. Could make an argument he should have been top 15 with combo of avg/obp/slg and fielding.
Reach: Luke Appling 38th. Don't get me wrong, a .388 avg and .473 OBP are great, but his fielding is average at an important position, and probably shouldn't have gone before Vaughn and Wagner.
Most likely to underperform: Cy Young 32nd His best WHIP seasons of .97, opponents hit over .230 against him. He will get knocked around.
Round three
Steal: Hack Wilson 70th. Power, avg, slugging, WAR--could give 1st round production late in the 3rd
Reach: Mike Griffin 57th. Nice player, but there were SO MANY better OF's available at that point. Coulda gotten him in the 7th or 8th round.
Most likely to underperform: Mariano Rivera 50th. Greatest closer in history but 50th is awful early to draft a closer. Rivera's best season may not even be in top ten best single seasons among relievers also.
Round four
Steal: Harry Heilman 78th Way above average in BA/OBP/SLG. Great offensive player gives a 2nd or 3rd round value in the 4th.
Reach: Jose Bautista, 87th. Drafted before Mike Schmidt??? Great fielder but a .302 avg and over 20 K's per 100 mean a lot of wasted AB's.
Most likely to underperform: Bautista. I'd expect .260/;365/.470 with about 25 HR's
Round five
Steal: Wade Boggs 113th. Great average and OBP at a position that doesn't usually offer that. Good fielder as well.
Reach: Guy Hecker 112th. Gives you innings, but a 1.06 WHIP and .240 OAV will get ya lit up like a Christmas tree in this league I bet.
Most likely to underperform: Nolan Ryan. When you draft Ryan,. you expect something. The SIM usually hates Ryan and he usually walks far more than IRL which leads to bad numbers across the board.
Round six
Stead: Shoeless Joe Jackson 130th. Not as great a fielder as the movies make him seem, but the man can hit. Avg, OBP, WAR...GREAT value at 130
Reach: Bernie Williams 136th. Great player, but there were so many other OF's available at this point that were better.
Mostl likely to underpoerform: Eddie Plank 135th. First of all, he's lefty, which makes him vulnerable with all the great RH hitters in history. 2nd of all, a .99 WHIP and .218 OAV means he should be pretty hittable in this league.
Round seven
Steal:Lefty O'Doul 165th. Wow, what a value! Gives you 3rd or 4th round production in round 7.
Reach: Mike Napoli 162nd. Great power numbers but only 367 AB's his best season. At least five better C's at this point IMO
Most likely to underperform: Ken Caminiti 159th. Just the kind of player the SIM hates for some reason. High slugging %, but I bet he is closer to .420 than the .620 he actually hit.
Round eight
Steal: Jason Giambi 174th. Outrageous numbers. .470 OBP and over .600 slg. Great fielder also. Roids help!
Reach: Derek Lowe 189th. Decent numbers, but I could probably come up with 20+ other pitchers I'd rather have at this point.
Most likely to underperform: Pete Rose 180th. With these great pitchers, I bet Rose turns into a glodified singles hitter. Expect .280/,345/,380
Round nine
Steal: Sammy Sosa 193rd. You look at his numbers and you'd think he should be a 1st or 2nd round pick, so getting him now is a steal
Reach: Snuffy Stirnweiss 209th. Great name. Great fielder. Only .316 avg and under .400 OBP though. I know SS is not a deep position, but there had to be better SS at this point.
Most likely to underperform: Sosa. Yes, he was the biggest steal but there is also no way he will live up to his RL numbers in this league. His owner is almost guaranteed to be disappointed.
Round ten
Steal: Tony Gwynn 217th and Ken Griffey Jr 232nd. A .394 hitter in round 10!? Thats Gwynn. A top 20 player of all time?! That's Griffey. As much of a reach Bernie Williams was for roadhouse, Griff is a steal.
Reach: Buddy Myer 221st. Myer is an on base monster. But thas really all he gives you. I think you could drop down OBP and raise slg a bit here and find at least a half dozen 2n men who would be more valuable.
Most likely to underpoerform: Denny McLain 218th. Could be looked at as a steal or perhaps there is a reason he was still out there in round ten. I'm guessing the latter as he will give up a ton of HR's and be knocked around pretty well.
Round 11
Steal: Heinie Manush 261st & Fred Clarke 245th. There are probably 20-30 OF's drafted ahead of them that I would draft either ahead of. Great value here!
Reach: Jocko Milligan 541st. Great average and slugging for a C but only had 360 AB's that year. OBP isn't much higher than his avg.
Most likely to underperform: Jorge Posada 243rd. He was a super sleeper, and a decent pick. I just don't think he will be anywhere near his real life numbers in this league .