You'd expect me to get this done right lol, as usual I'm a few games late.

Final Four

Shenandoah
90 scoopdogg1 19-11 6-5 11-4 2-2 8-8   20 5 A NT At-large Bid
NT (2nd Round)

Sr/So class for scoop.  Has been showcasing elite offense this season already.  Oden is a 3 point machine and Magoon is a freak of nature as well as Champion off the bench is a major weapon.  Scoop is a rising coach in phelan and looks to have Shenandoah as a major player in the landscape in Phelan.  Non conf will give scoop the ability to get a lead going for the top rpi/sos as he should easily get into the top 10 if not higher(he managed 1/1 with the jr/fr class last seasons)  and then put down the clamps in USAS conference play.  Look for 22 wins at least in the regular season and a top 3 rpi/sos.  A 1 seed(overall 1) should come from this season.

Augustana
90 Kevutz 26-5 11-2 11-2 4-1 16-0 8 6 15 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (2nd Round)

Broussard in the triangle is amazing in the triangle offense.  And look at the defense kevutz has on this team.  I think Schmidt is going to be a underrated but integral part to the deep run this team makes. I love Aron's speed which makes him a dual threat offensively and defensively.  The schedule will let us see how good they can be as well as get them ready to make a move for a 2/3 seed since conference play will drag them down as usual.  At worst I think they go 7-3 and they won't lose a game in conference.  Augustana has been one of the most consistent teams in Phelan for a long long time and it's been nearly 20 seasons since the last final four which will change this season.

SUNY Potsdam
90 rak 31-2 13-0 12-1 6-1 15-1 6 21 99 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Elite 8)

Grabbing Finck as a transfer could make this season for rak.  Finck is a dream for as a sf imo.  93 lp 49 per is going to be insane in the fastbreak.  Easily should hit 20 ppg for the season (71% with 21ppg).  The two starting guards have elite speed.  Having Smith of the bench is crazy he could start on 99% of teams in D3.  If the big men have any development left Potsdam could make a push to be the favorite.  An undefeated non conf looks likely and I think they can pull off at least 14 wins in conference.  They'll manage to get a 1 seed and make a deep run

Millsaps
90 Bigtxshark 28-6 12-1 10-3 6-2 12-4 7 24 70 B+ NT At-large Bid
NT (Final Four)

On pure skill alone Millsaps has the best offense in the nation.  As Jr/So it took them to the final four and it will again this season.  Long is an absolute monster! 95 stamina in the press is unfair to the rest of us.  Defensively there is not a player in the nation capable of scoring against Swanson with his 99 ath/def.  Millsaps might be a "surprise" pick come seed they will end up in a really tough bracket as a 5ish seed even though they have some of the best collection of talent.  Looking for 24 wins but the weakest rpi/sos of the predicted teams.

Pre season All-Americans


PG Donald Broussard Augustana
 
SG Terry Mao Endicott

SF Paul Finck SUNY Potsdam

PF Clement Long Millsaps

C Randy Magoon Shenandoah 

Conference crown gets won by the USAS however the SUNYAC puts in a really good fight with the USAS performing better in the NT to lock it up.

NT "Odds"
Shenandoah 30%
Augustana 20%
Millsaps 20%
Potsdam 15%
Colorado 5%
PBAU 5%
Brockport 5%
2/10/2016 12:53 AM (edited)
Thanks for the props only! This is the first time you have taken note op Potsdam in your pre-season picks - which makes me nervous!
2/10/2016 1:03 PM
Brockport has the ATH/DEF necessary to make a run, but the early disappointing loss vs Southwestern illuminated some significant problems with the team.  Gotta solve these in order to have a real chance at making a deep postseason run.

 

Thanks for the mention though, 0nly!


2/10/2016 1:42 PM
Brockport's coaching will hold them back.
2/10/2016 1:44 PM
I was originally thinking brockport, but I think having to start Ballard is going to hurt them and cause them to drop down a few seeds giving them a tougher bracket.  With their "real" starting lineup they will either be one of those "lower" seeds that makes a deep run or gets into one of those early matchups which is really tough.
2/10/2016 4:20 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/10/2016 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Brockport's coaching will hold them back.
Ha...you may be right. Brockport's coaching against Plattsburgh St will hold them back more than anything.  For some reason we cannot solve the puzzle of TJ's zone defense.
2/10/2016 4:46 PM
Posted by the0nlyis on 2/10/2016 4:20:00 PM (view original):
I was originally thinking brockport, but I think having to start Ballard is going to hurt them and cause them to drop down a few seeds giving them a tougher bracket.  With their "real" starting lineup they will either be one of those "lower" seeds that makes a deep run or gets into one of those early matchups which is really tough.
I actually promised a start to Porter as well.  He will hold my team back more than Ballard.  In the end, you may be right...
2/10/2016 4:46 PM
I actually think Millsaps will get a 1 seed. University will be a top 3 league. If any team dominates that conference, they'll be a strong contender for a #1 seed this season. Bigtx just scheduled way too weak for a title contender. That will hurt but the strength of the league can get him over that hump if he wins the conference. If not, I still think 2 or 3 seed at worse. After the demolition of Endicott today, I don't think anyone will look past Millsaps. Other than that, I think your picks are right on. Probably need a dark horse pick in there. If anything I think Shenandoah has the highest ceiling but the toughest road to get through. Strong SOS will help but I wonder if USAS will just be too tough to produce a #1 seed if those teams start to cannibalize each other. 
2/11/2016 12:20 AM
I'm just hoping to be able to land in the upper half of a bracket.
2/11/2016 8:09 AM
Posted by kbc167 on 2/11/2016 12:20:00 AM (view original):
I actually think Millsaps will get a 1 seed. University will be a top 3 league. If any team dominates that conference, they'll be a strong contender for a #1 seed this season. Bigtx just scheduled way too weak for a title contender. That will hurt but the strength of the league can get him over that hump if he wins the conference. If not, I still think 2 or 3 seed at worse. After the demolition of Endicott today, I don't think anyone will look past Millsaps. Other than that, I think your picks are right on. Probably need a dark horse pick in there. If anything I think Shenandoah has the highest ceiling but the toughest road to get through. Strong SOS will help but I wonder if USAS will just be too tough to produce a #1 seed if those teams start to cannibalize each other. 
We regularly send 1 seeds with 5/6 losses.

Shenandoah won't go over that.
2/11/2016 9:45 AM
Loved reading this only, great work!!
2/11/2016 10:06 AM
Thanks for the props 0nly! Liking what I'm seeing from my team so far. 
2/11/2016 11:33 PM
RPI is out and we have some good numbers

CNU(Benis) has #1 with the #2 SOS.  Holy **** .7985!!

Mary Washington(mikemang23) has #2 RPI #1 SOS. at .7545

Augustana (kevutz) 3|26 at .7228

Conference wise USAS has a big lead(thanks to my stellar 147 rpi 363 sos) at .6474 with University at .6017 and SUNYAC .5970
2/12/2016 7:08 AM
I'm clearly late on the mid seaosn report I'm seeing if I can get my ranking formula working and make it so it isn't a pain to gather 1 stat from every team, I just need to be able to gather margin of victory in a timely manner to get this as something added to these posts.  It's a pretty simple formula basically just an extended rpi, just changing the weights and adding in margin of victory and maybe conference rpi as a 3rd measure of sos.
2/14/2016 10:02 PM
I'm starting to think it's Shenandoah and Millsaps. Just blowing everybody out. Interesting to see if those two go head to head in the final 4. 
2/15/2016 2:11 PM
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