Salaries Analysis Topic

I've downloaded the new salaries spreadsheets and am doing comparisons with the old salaries.  I am using this thread to post some of my findings.
2/10/2016 1:46 PM
There are four hitters and seven pitchers who saw the maximum 10% increase.

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1901 Nap Lajoie 14,143,902 15,558,292 1,414,390 10.0%
1980 George Brett 9,306,245 10,236,870 930,625 10.0%
1989 Howard Johnson 5,387,622 5,926,384 538,762 10.0%
1992 Bip Roberts 4,397,784 4,837,562 439,778 10.0%

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1908 Addie Joss 12,778,253 14,056,078 1,277,825 10.0%
2000 Pedro Martinez 11,707,138 12,877,852 1,170,714 10.0%
1995 Greg Maddux 10,842,285 11,926,514 1,084,229 10.0%
1888 Elton Chamberlain 6,153,872 6,769,259 615,387 10.0%
2003 Eric Gagne 5,463,221 6,009,543 546,322 10.0%
1990 Dennis Eckersley 4,293,010 4,722,311 429,301 10.0%
1918 Fred Toney 4,203,375 4,623,712 420,337 10.0%
2/10/2016 1:52 PM (edited)
Most of these are not surprising.  But 1901 Lajoie?  I find it hard to believe that open leagues are using a $14M batter that frequently.  This must be a mistake.
2/10/2016 1:50 PM
They changed their plan to include theme league usage as well as OLs.
2/10/2016 1:52 PM
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I really don't like seeing Lajoie, Brett, Pedro, Maddux, Gagne, and Eck going up.  They weren't underpriced.  They were just the best players at thin positions, so they get used a lot in high cap leagues.  Has nothing to do with their value being off.  Honestly, Lajoie was a very bad value to start with, and Brett wasn't great.

Joss, Toney, Chamberlain, Johnson, and Roberts seem more like the target demographics - guys who perform better in the sim than their pricetags would indicate.  I don't see the rest of those guys as fitting into this demographic.

2/10/2016 2:03 PM
I am having difficulty proving that the salary changes have a net effect of zero.  I'm not sure how they are handling players with multiple teams in the same year.  If I assume they only count one combined version of that player, then I get the following results...

39,858 Total Hitters
    9,506 increase salary  (+105,507,108 million or 11,099 per player)
  29,829 decrease salary  (-108,333,183 million or -3,632 per player)
       523  same salary
Total salary difference: -$2,826,075

28,585 Total Pitchers
    5,149 increase salary   (+58,312,570 million or 11,325 per player)
  23,347 decrease salary   (-52,316,848 million or 2,241 per player)
         89 same salary
Total salary difference:  +$8,717,737

Overall salary difference: +$5,891,662

If I include all versions of multi-team players, then the overall salary difference is -$26,065,742 (so this clearly isn't what they are doing).
2/10/2016 2:16 PM
Not sure either.  At a guess:

-- Something wacky with the multiple-team players...maybe they only looked at the partials?
-- An issue with the low-end...since you can't go below $200K, maybe some players got truncated at 200K even though the formula would have put them below?  So a player who was at 205K and was never used might have been scheduled to go down 10%, to $185K, but got truncated to $200K?  

In any case, a net increase of $6M across 68000 players is about $88 per player...close enough to zero in my book given the salary ranges we are talking about.

Interesting to note that the vast vast majority of players saw their salaries decrease...which is what would one have expected, but runs counter to the "world is ending" complaints we see in the other thread.
2/10/2016 2:27 PM
Another note.  Pretty much all of the %decreases are between 0.1% and 0.3% EXCEPT for the catchers.  Here are the biggest decreases in salary for catchers.

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1990 Chris Hoiles 1,117,626 570,411 -547,215 -49.0%
1956 Bobby Hofman 373,317 207,560 -165,757 -44.4%
1965 Smoky Burgess 989,416 553,383 -436,033 -44.1%
2008 Johnny Estrada 408,669 241,463 -167,206 -40.9%
1920 Lena Styles 400,798 236,867 -163,931 -40.9%
1970 Jim Campanis 642,657 385,563 -257,094 -40.0%
1991 Tom Lampkin 436,998 268,269 -168,729 -38.6%
1947 Billy Sullivan 686,348 428,763 -257,585 -37.5%
1980 Craig Stimac 1,036,091 665,875 -370,216 -35.7%
1979 Ray Fosse 473,473 306,051 -167,422 -35.4%
2/10/2016 2:35 PM
Here is a list of pitchers at 5.0%+ increases...

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1908 Addie Joss 12,778,253 14,056,078 1,277,825 10.0%
2000 Pedro Martinez 11,707,138 12,877,852 1,170,714 10.0%
1995 Greg Maddux 10,842,285 11,926,514 1,084,229 10.0%
2003 Eric Gagne 5,463,221 6,009,543 546,322 10.0%
1990 Dennis Eckersley 4,293,010 4,722,311 429,301 10.0%
2012 Craig Kimbrel 3,884,821 4,268,537 383,716 9.9%
1967 Cisco Carlos 1,938,932 2,102,812 163,880 8.5%
2010 Hong-Chih Kuo 3,398,795 3,677,746 278,951 8.2%
1988 Bob Milacki 1,231,122 1,327,369 96,247 7.8%
1914 Dutch Leonard 8,905,191 9,585,211 680,020 7.6%
1918 Jake Northrop 2,234,464 2,394,943 160,479 7.2%
1915 Pete Alexander 16,221,577 17,348,634 1,127,057 6.9%
1908 Elmer Steele 3,799,703 4,054,701 254,998 6.7%
1915 Tim McCabe 1,476,708 1,572,607 95,899 6.5%
2013 Josh Zeid 390,020 414,291 24,271 6.2%
2013 Koji Uehara 4,701,441 4,992,537 291,096 6.2%
2008 Mariano Rivera 3,784,493 4,010,451 225,958 6.0%
1909 Ed Summers 7,770,317 8,234,075 463,758 6.0%
2009 Mike Adams 2,569,430 2,716,583 147,153 5.7%
2013 Jarred Cosart 1,294,365 1,368,171 73,806 5.7%
1910 Ed Walsh 15,524,600 16,396,300 871,700 5.6%
1968 Bob Gibson 12,216,556 12,894,242 677,686 5.5%
1999 Billy Wagner 4,314,571 4,551,975 237,404 5.5%
1916 Ferdie Schupp 6,048,685 6,379,390 330,705 5.5%
2013 Jose Cisnero 569,834 600,315 30,481 5.3%
1913 Walter Johnson 16,372,767 17,221,230 848,463 5.2%
2013 Hector Ambriz 271,621 285,520 13,899 5.1%
1909 Christy Mathewson 11,872,286 12,477,141 604,855 5.1%
1924 Babe Adams 1,480,431 1,555,009 74,578 5.0%
2013 Josh Fields 634,597 666,242 31,645 5.0%
2/10/2016 2:38 PM
Here is a list of hitters at 5.0%+ increases..

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1901 Nap Lajoie 14,143,902 15,558,292 1,414,390 10.0%
1980 George Brett 9,306,245 10,236,870 930,625 10.0%
1989 Howard Johnson 5,387,622 5,926,384 538,762 10.0%
1992 Bip Roberts 4,397,784 4,837,562 439,778 10.0%
1927 Lou Gehrig 13,669,251 14,973,369 1,304,118 9.5%
1980 Miguel Dilone 4,387,671 4,805,975 418,304 9.5%
1911 Ty Cobb 12,571,648 13,755,639 1,183,991 9.4%
1886 King Kelly 10,629,733 11,591,130 961,397 9.0%
2010 Brad Ausmus 200,000 216,683 16,683 8.3%
1987 Vince Coleman 4,240,214 4,585,196 344,982 8.1%
1924 Rogers Hornsby 13,189,968 14,238,801 1,048,833 8.0%
1941 Ted Williams 12,722,311 13,681,636 959,325 7.5%
1921 Babe Ruth 17,817,715 19,160,938 1,343,223 7.5%
1975 Gary Carter 3,936,483 4,229,073 292,590 7.4%
1923 Babe Ruth 17,302,114 18,575,156 1,273,042 7.4%
2009 Ben Zobrist 4,669,972 5,011,712 341,740 7.3%
1894 Hugh Duffy 13,583,300 14,542,722 959,422 7.1%
1899 John McGraw 8,398,716 8,988,009 589,293 7.0%
1986 Tim Raines 6,059,031 6,465,703 406,672 6.7%
1956 Mickey Mantle 12,302,747 13,122,464 819,717 6.7%
1887 Tip O'Neill 13,180,054 14,018,266 838,212 6.4%
1995 Wade Boggs 3,906,472 4,153,580 247,108 6.3%
1997 Derrek Lee 200,000 212,004 12,004 6.0%
1935 Arky Vaughan 9,298,919 9,850,240 551,321 5.9%
2002 Howie Clark 200,000 211,776 11,776 5.9%
1954 Rocky Bridges 200,000 211,760 11,760 5.9%
2004 Barry Bonds 16,437,619 17,379,816 942,197 5.7%
1954 Ted Kazanski 200,000 211,431 11,431 5.7%
1985 Willie McGee 7,137,439 7,543,396 405,957 5.7%
1981 Tim Raines 4,267,085 4,499,385 232,300 5.4%
1989 Scott Coolbaugh 200,000 210,761 10,761 5.4%
1975 Joe Morgan 8,554,511 9,013,580 459,069 5.4%
1997 Mike Piazza 7,909,554 8,318,437 408,883 5.2%
2/10/2016 2:40 PM
So that looks like 3 kinds of players:

-- The 200K guys who can actually hit
-- Obvious OL cookies
-- Guys who are used on tons of high cap teams
2/10/2016 2:42 PM
Contrarian - the reality is that in leagues $70 million and up, probably 75-80% of the player pool is virtually unusable.  It just doesn't make sense to carry a guy with an OBP of .330 on your team as a full-time player.  These seem to be the ones dropping in salary.  I'm not sure if that was the intention.  Effectively, for all the players that are reasonable to use, it's an across-the-board increase, and it isn't substantially differentiating the overused players from the rest of the usable field.
2/10/2016 2:43 PM
Oops, the last post neglected to include partial seasons...

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1893 Hughie Jennings 200,000 219,558 19,558 9.8%
2007 Chris Gomez 200,000 215,883 15,883 7.9%
2003 Wilson Delgado 249,592 268,281 18,689 7.5%
2010 Wilson Ramos 200,000 214,479 14,479 7.2%
2013 Michael Young 202,934 215,667 12,733 6.3%
1977 Tim Foli 235,490 250,242 14,752 6.3%
1973 Rich Reese 200,000 211,129 11,129 5.6%

Player Old Salary___ New Salary___ Salary Difference %Difference
1918 Fred Toney 4,203,375 4,623,712 420,337 10.0%
1919 Art Nehf 3,880,829 4,217,095 336,266 8.7%
1992 Dennis Rasmussen 1,488,414 1,573,194 84,780 5.7%
2013 Wesley Wright 565,952 596,509 30,557 5.4%
2013 Travis Blackley 405,328 425,923 20,595 5.1%

2/10/2016 2:43 PM
This is great stuff schwarze...thanks for posting.  It looks to me like this first pass has done far more to improve things than to detract...it's not perfect, but it's a good start.

I put together an 80M team yesterday and while there are a few old holdouts that I'm still using (largely guys who were personally favorites of mine, but not widespread cookies), just about everyone else was new.  This one update will likely eliminate the vast majority of the old cookies.  Of course, new ones will emerge in time, but the next update is just 4 months away...
2/10/2016 2:44 PM
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