2016 Predictions Topic

Too early to point and laugh at people?
5/16/2016 6:45 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/16/2016 6:45:00 PM (view original):
Too early to point and laugh at people?
When the Phillies are on pace to win 94 games the answer to that question is always yes.
5/16/2016 7:47 PM
I was deciding between whether to pick Phillies or Braves to have worst record. Chose Phils and they are contenders. Did the same with the White Sox in the AL. And every time I point out a hitting streak, that player loses it the next day in WIS. I think I have a gift/curse
5/16/2016 7:49 PM
We're at game 38. The Phillies are not contenders.
5/16/2016 8:01 PM
The White Sox are actually playing really well. The Phillies are not. They've scored 126 runs and allowed 156. For them to be not only .500 but 6 games over is many standard deviations away from expectations with a -30 run differential. It's remarkable that they've pulled it off even over a small sample. They're not likely to maintain anything resembling this pace. They have young pitchers, and in general young pitchers tend to start strong and fade more than veteran arms over the course of the season. And only the Braves score fewer runs than the Phillies as it is.
5/16/2016 8:25 PM
Ah yes, yet they still win. Coaching and character will do that for you. Do I think they can win the division? No. I think they can win 75 games at this point though. I'll take it.
5/16/2016 8:29 PM
If "coaching and character will do that for you," the same teams would overperform relative to their Pythagorean win percentages on a regular basis. Especially in the pre-free-agency period. But it's never been true. Doesn't seem like anything but luck correlates to deviation from the Pythagorean win percentage.
5/16/2016 9:42 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 5/16/2016 9:42:00 PM (view original):
If "coaching and character will do that for you," the same teams would overperform relative to their Pythagorean win percentages on a regular basis. Especially in the pre-free-agency period. But it's never been true. Doesn't seem like anything but luck correlates to deviation from the Pythagorean win percentage.
Phillies started off 10-10 with a -25 run differential in their first 20 games. 4 of those loses were big loses. 10-6. 11-1. 9-1. 8-1.

Since then they've gone 12-6 with a -5 differential. Their pitching keeps them in games, and they do have timely hitting that has consistently been there.

All this despite the peripherals saying they are indeed lucky. That said, its still happening. They finish with the Marlins, and then get the sorry Braves and Tigers after. Then I guess we will really see what happens when they face the Cubs and Nats at the end of the month. You'd think they will probably go 1-5 or 2-6 against them.

But again, we'll see. I'm not drinkign the Kool Aide, but I certainly am enjoying the ride!
5/16/2016 10:07 PM
Posted by sjpoker on 5/16/2016 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 5/16/2016 9:42:00 PM (view original):
If "coaching and character will do that for you," the same teams would overperform relative to their Pythagorean win percentages on a regular basis. Especially in the pre-free-agency period. But it's never been true. Doesn't seem like anything but luck correlates to deviation from the Pythagorean win percentage.
Phillies started off 10-10 with a -25 run differential in their first 20 games. 4 of those loses were big loses. 10-6. 11-1. 9-1. 8-1.

Since then they've gone 12-6 with a -5 differential. Their pitching keeps them in games, and they do have timely hitting that has consistently been there.

All this despite the peripherals saying they are indeed lucky. That said, its still happening. They finish with the Marlins, and then get the sorry Braves and Tigers after. Then I guess we will really see what happens when they face the Cubs and Nats at the end of the month. You'd think they will probably go 1-5 or 2-6 against them.

But again, we'll see. I'm not drinkign the Kool Aide, but I certainly am enjoying the ride!
Are you arguing that timely hitting is a repeatable skill that the Phillies posses?
5/17/2016 11:06 AM
I'm not arguing that ANY of this is either, repeatable or sustainable. But if you look at the results, they are doing it so I am going to enjoy it.
5/17/2016 12:03 PM
Enjoy i while it lasts...
5/17/2016 12:41 PM
I think that's not far from dahs' point. The Phillies aren't good and their current record has way more to do with luck than anything else.
5/17/2016 12:54 PM
Coming from someone with a username 'bad_luck'.

17Ks and a 3-1 victory last night. The wins continue to pile up. I'll take the good luck. Like I said, we will really see what happens when they face the Cubs and Nats at the end of the month.
5/18/2016 7:47 AM
I think the Phillies will be good in a few years. Velasquez looks like he will be a stud. Franco will be very good. Herrara will be good if he can sustain this walk rate.

But this year? They suck.
5/18/2016 11:22 AM
This year? They have the 3rd or 4th best record in the NL. When they start to suck, then you can say they suck.
5/18/2016 11:33 AM
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