Season 107 DII Blog Topic

On to Season 107. Season 106 had some great playoff matchups but no one was a match at all for Lyonzfan who took care of business with ease in each of his 5 victories on his way to his second NC in three seasons. I decided to start with the projected standings first this season as I think that will make things a bit easier for me. I made almost everything the same as far as my calculations and algorithms and what not. The one main thing that I added was keeping track of how many seniors each team has and using those numbers in addition to what I already had to come up with final total team rankings. The SOS attempt last year actually seemed to work pretty well. There were plenty of predictions that were off by quite a bit but that had more to do with getting close games wrong then it did with anything else. I had two of the final four teams but mojo surprised me with a nice run to fight for the title last year. I plan on starting Team Goals tomorrow and trying to get all 46 teams out before games start next Wednesday. We'll see how practical that is. Good luck to everyone this season! Hope it's as fun as last!
Team W L SOS Off. Rank Def. Rank Tot. Rank
#1Grand Valley State* 14 0 9 3 1 1
#2North Carolina Central* 14 0 43 1 10 6
#3Indiana (PA)* 14 0 61 4 2 3
#4Quincy* 13 1 28 7 3 4
#5Minnesota-Crookston* 13 1 12 13 6 12
#6Mansfield 13 1 27 5 4 2
#7SE Oklahoma-Durant* 12 2 20 6 7 8
#8Valdosta State* 13 1 77 12 5 7
#9Long Island* 13 1 51 14 14 14
#10Humboldt State* 13 1 79 16 22 15
#11Millersville 12 1 42 2 11 5
#12East Stroudsburg 10 3 2 8 12 10
#13Saint Joseph's 11 2 17 9 8 11
#14Lock Haven * 14 0 139 10 9 9
#15Virginia State 11 3 8 28 24 26
#16Carson-Newman* 13 1 102 18 16 24
#17Colorado-Mines* 13 1 96 32 30 31
#18Miles 12 2 49 25 18 18
#19Northern State 11 3 14 27 19 25
#20Abilene Christian 10 4 18 15 13 13
#21Ferris State 11 3 33 17 20 19
#22Bryant 11 2 52 11 26 16
#23California (PA) 10 3 57 23 28 22
#24South Dakota State 11 3 74 22 15 17
#25Elizabeth City 10 3 46 38 42 36
#26Truman State 10 4 24 20 21 20
#27Delta State 10 3 65 30 33 30
#28West Chester 10 3 66 19 31 21
#29Indianapolis 10 3 58 21 23 23
#30New Mexico Highlands 12 2 114 34 32 32
#31Stonehill 9 5 4 26 25 28
#32Findlay 9 4 44 24 17 27
#33Concord 9 4 69 33 37 33
#34Arkansas Tech 8 6 16 36 46 45
#35Cheyney 9 4 104 35 35 35
#36West Texas A&M 7 6 19 45 40 42
#37Northeastern State 9 4 84 31 41 41
#38Kutztown 6 7 3 29 27 29
#39Southwest Baptist 7 6 34 39 29 34
#40Texas A&M-Kingsville 9 4 125 42 39 40
#41Bowie State 6 7 7 44 34 37
#42Eastern New Mexico 9 4 136 41 44 44
#43Fort Valley State 7 6 111 43 36 39
#44West Alabama 7 6 143 40 38 43
#45North Dakota State 4 9 5 37 43 38
#46Henderson State 3 10 11 46 45 46
4/7/2016 3:21 AM
Look at that beast West Alabama team at #44...booyah.
4/7/2016 9:21 AM
It's here! It's finally here! Thank you Ickiwonkin.
4/7/2016 6:54 PM
This is absolutely amazing and I can't wait to see further projections. Thank you for doing this ickiwonkin. Just out of curiousity, why do some teams have stars by their names?
4/7/2016 9:22 PM
Posted by mattyice08 on 4/7/2016 9:22:00 PM (view original):
This is absolutely amazing and I can't wait to see further projections. Thank you for doing this ickiwonkin. Just out of curiousity, why do some teams have stars by their names?
Those are the projected Conference Champions. Glad you are enjoying it, mattyice! There should be an update later tonight. Working on it, amongst other stuff around the house right now.
4/7/2016 9:35 PM
Gotcha that makes plenty of sense now lol. Keep up the good work!!!!!
4/7/2016 10:04 PM
Here we are again. Let's start things off with the killer PSAC boys and let's do a better job of stopping them this year, folks!

Team Goals
PSAC
Millsersville (Seniors Lost: 9) – Mojolad was on a mission last season to bring home a NC and fought through hell and high water to get there, only to be crushed by an efficient Indian (PA) team. It’s very possible anybody would have been handled with ease at that point, considering how lyonzfan’s team was playing. This year, mojo has a good group of seniors to try to do that with again, but it will be in a slightly different fashion. There really isn’t a star RB on this team, but instead two incredibly good senior WRs and a TE that can do a lot of damage himself. The LB and DB cores have some small depth concerns but nothing terrible. The cross division schedule looks nice as there are no human teams to face. OOC should be able to be handled fairly easily. The two toughest games are usuals within the conference, ESUP and Mansfield. This could be set up for a potential chance at the CC if things go mojo’s way. Mojo’s hopes are always high and CC and NC will always be his aspirations, no matter how hard the battle is to get there.

Mansfield (Seniors Lost: 8) – Fotman had a very close, tough loss to end the season last year against NCCU. PSAC had a chance to make it an all PSAC final four with leads in each game at the end of the half of the quarterfinal games and Mansfield kept it close until the end but couldn’t hang in there. A one-two punch at RB that will destroy most teams by itself. A great QB and solid position groups across the board. In addition to all of that, I think fotman keeps proving himself as a tough coach to face in matchups that might normally be coin flips, but that he comes out on top a lot of the time instead. A very interesting game on Day 5 that will showcase that specific scenario against Valdosta State. Mansfield also pulled no human teams in the cross division conference schedule, which will help the win total. Mansfield is in the very similar boat of being able to have a chance at the CC against the presumable Indiana (PA) and is my choice to do so. But any slip ups and other teams like Millersville and ESUP will jump on those chances to squash them most likely. Even without a CC, this team has all the potential and reason to expect a chance to be in and win the NC. They have a roster and coach with the caliber to do so and is what they’ll be going for.

East Stroudsburg (Seniors Lost: 12) – Badaxe was another PSAC coach that fell victim in the quarterfinals last year, failing to make it an all PSAC final four. But he had a very promising season, and against a pretty killer schedule to boot. It also included two victories over SEO, the first being a nail biter and running away with the second one. This year’s schedule is hardly toned down. A solid OOC with another rematch against SEO and then pulling Indiana (PA) and California (PA) in cross division. Another great SOS should get this team to the playoffs, maybe even with 5 losses but I don’t see 5 losses in there. WR would be the weakness of this team’s offense and LB of the defense but everywhere else is solid and WR and LB aren’t terrible either. It doesn’t look like quite enough to hang with the likes of Indiana or Mansfield, maybe not even Millersville but badaxe impressed last year, so I wouldn’t put it out of the question. ESUP will have to beat both Millersville and Mansfield if they can’t come away with a victory against Indiana (PA) if they want any hopes at a CCG appearance. That seems very unlikely but even getting into the playoffs at 10-3 and this team is still a very dangerous force to be reckoned with and has the potential to make a deep run. A semifinal appearance seems like the next step for a desired achievement for this up and coming squad. It will be anything but easy but hopes should still be high for how good last season went.

Kutztown (Seniors Lost: 13) – Kutztown has failed to make the playoffs four straight seasons now and I don’t see that changing this year. Just an absolutely brutal conference schedule (where I think they may be the team on the losing end of each and every human fought battle). They only face two SIM coaches in their conference play and even if they find two wins against the human teams, that still may not be enough for a playoff bid. It maybe would be if it weren’t for the OOC game against GVSU. The talent on this team certainly has its issues on being able to compete with its conference mates but especially at QB, where a young, second year starter will likely get torn to shreds by its defensive counterparts that the PSAC has to offer. I predicted 6 wins for Kutztown this year and that would include losing to every human coached opponent. I really wanted to throw a seventh win in there but I just don’t think it will happen. If jdtilt can get to 8 victories, there would be a possibility of making the playoffs, due to just how brutal the schedule is and how that will raise SOS a lot but there are actually a lot of teams that look to have very tough SOS out there already, so I don’t know. So, playoffs is the highest hope goal but jdtilt just wants to have some very solid recruiting classes to get back in the competition within this conference. An easier cross division draw would help as well.

West Chester (Seniors Lost: 18) – The last couple years looked like years to break through for robbman and West Chester. The talent was there, but just couldn’t keep up with the rest of the PSAC and even with solid SOS’s, the 8-5 records came up short of making the playoffs. Now losing 18 seniors will make things tough to get back to the talent that they had but a cross division that drew three SIM coaches was just what the doctor ordered. The Kutztown matchup may still be a must win to get in but I think those chances are more likely than in years past. The one glaring weak spot on the team would be a big lack of depth at DB, but that is the best weak spot to have against a Kutztown team that has a young QB. The defense as a whole is definitely worse than the offense but I like this team to still go out and win 10 games and make the playoffs. The first place they’ll need to take care of business is against Stonehill on Day 2. West Chester will be young but I think the good schedule draws should help in the win column. A 10-3 record with even a first round exit in the playoffs would still be a nice goal to achieve.

Indiana (PA) (Seniors Lost: 14) – Lyonzfan won his second NC in three seasons and did so in a dominant fashion. His road to get there was a bit easier than everyone else’s but it was still an impressive feat. This offense is outlined by a stellar O-Line and four RBs that could be starters anywhere. A quick sidebar – remind me not to schedule Indiana in two seasons when QB David Wilkes and RB Charles Watson will be seniors, that team is going to be scary good. The defense is top notch, top to bottom. The talent just keeps at a high plateau year in and year out and with a good coach, that’s hard to stop. Cross division schedule drew ESUP and Kutztown which certainly could have been worse. ESUP has upset Indiana before but I’m not thinking that will happen this year. The biggest and toughest opponent will be Quincy on Day 5 of an otherwise fairly easy OOC. I went back and forth over who I thought would be the victor in this one and it was not an easy decision. It certainly can be considered a toss up and I won’t be surprised either way but I chose Indiana by a hair, to the chagrin of my conference mate. Indiana will have two goals this year, and they are to win the conference and to win it all. Anything else, though maybe not a disappointment, will fall short of expectations.

California (PA) (Seniors Lost: 14) – Metcalf has strung together three straight first round appearances in the playoffs, all with 10-3 records going in. This is of course much easier to do from the western division. With only lyonzfan as the other human coach in this division, there is a lot more breathing room within the conference schedule. I like yet another 10-3 record by season’s end and another trip to the playoffs. It might be tough to win a first round matchup with the presumable lowish seed they’ll have though. A very nice QB-WR combo is what this offense will look to when trying to move the ball. RB is pretty weak so the offense may be a tad predictable. The defense is mediocre and will struggle against tougher opponents so the QB-WR combo will make some shootout game scripts kind of obvious. There is absolutely potential to lose more than 3 games though with the caliber of schedule that Metcalf has prepared himself. The ESUP and Indiana games in conference are likely losses so the OOC is extremely important. Four games against human coaches teams, including tougher ones against Truman State and an experienced Miles coach. If everything went bad, and I mean everything, this team would likely finish 8-5 and could miss the playoffs, but I’m really doubting it will go that bad. A realistic goal would be to make the playoffs again and a hopeful goal would be to fair well enough with a strong enough SOS to get a #4 or #5 seed and win a first round matchup. In order for that to happen, there can be no unexpected hiccups throughout the season.

NSIC

Minnesota-Crookston (Seniors Lost: 20) – Nacorwin’s season came to a halt in the quarterfinals last year to mojolad’s Millersville. The story was all told in the first half as Millersville jumped to a quick 20-3 lead and though UMC fought to get back in the game, they simply didn’t have enough time to do so and ended up losing by less than a TD. It was a disappointment due to the fact that nacorwin had so many seniors on the roster and was primed to make a deep run. This year has less chances for a deep run with only 4 seniors. Nevertheless, the team should never be taken lightly and is always a threat to ruin anyone’s playoff hopes. The O-Line is very strong as usual but the rest of the offense needs another year of growth to be a more threatening opponent. The RBs, which UMC heavily relies on, just aren’t up to par for most of nacorwin’s natty winning teams. The starters on defense are solid through and through but may have some depth issues. I think the offense will mostly have a few too many issues to deal with when playing the top notch teams come playoff time to really make as deep a run as nacorwin would hope for. Games against SEO and SDSU could be interesting in OOC. Other than that, it’s another year where UMC will most likely be ahead of Northern State and be able to take the CC with not too much of a problem. I would say another quarterfinal appearance would be on par with a season goal, with anything above that a solid achievement.

Northern State (Seniors Lost: 7) – Ranger went into the first round of the playoffs last year with what I thought would be a solid, near 50-50 shot to win and ended up getting slaughtered in the first half against Lock Haven to have any sort of chance to be able to come back and make it a game. The talent on Northern State still looks a bit away from being able to threaten nacorwin for a chance at the CC. They had a decent chance two seasons ago with quite a lot of talent and plenty of solid seniors but still came up short. Two years from now they’ll try to do that again with a ton of seniors and having it be the same year that nacorwin will have only a few seniors. And even right now the team’s overall talent doesn’t look bad, but still very young, and that’s the bigger issue. Two presumable losses against GVSU and UMC before the CCG, and another presumable loss to UMC would still be enough to make the playoffs (most likely) and have an even to tough first round matchup, a similar position they were in last year. I don’t think it’s too high of hopes to reach the second round in the playoffs. That should be a minimum goal I would think.

LSC
SE Oklahoma-Durant (Seniors Lost: 13) – Dukers had a tough season last year, specifically to badaxe’s ESUP alone. The first game was a small upset that came right down until the end. A pretty good thriller finish. The second was in the playoffs in the 2nd round and badaxe ran away with it in the 2nd half. This was certainly disappointing but I give more credit to badaxe’s abilities than to the lack of dukers’ or that SEO wasn’t a good enough team to go further. Badaxe really seemed on a tear and it was unlucky to pull ESUP in the 2nd round. This season the offense has some really nice weapons all around and is very balanced. A little weak at O-Line depth but some very solid starters there. A solid defense but some issues at DB will leave matchups against pass heavy offenses to be desired. SEO will really have to try to control the clock in games like that. Dukers certainly didn’t skimp on the OOC schedule and I like it. Three games that could all be wins or losses. It should be very exciting. First is GVSU on Day 2 then UMC and ESUP on days 4 and 5. That ESUP match has revenge written all over it and maybe it will turn into a nice OOC rivalry. SEO’s goals have a pretty huge range. I don’t see a whole lot of potential for upset in conference play so locking up the CC should be a minimum goal. Playoffs will ultimately depend on just how well the OOC goes and what kind of seed SEO can get. So really anywhere from another 2nd round appearance to a semifinal run. I don’t see a realistic chance at winning a NC but weirder things have certainly happened.

Northeastern State (Seniors Lost: 17) – TechPhan finished 6-7 last season which was right around where I expected them to end up. I think I predicted 7-6 but with the lower ranked teams, it’s pretty tough to tell how competitive they’ll be against each and every SIM in addition to the presumed losses against tougher human competition. Some tough games against Abilene Christian and SEO in conference with a tough ESUP team OOC and things might be tough getting into the playoffs but it certainly has some potential. With a season under his belt, TechPhan has a few higher hopes this year with some growth for recruited players but the offset will be the 17 seniors lost. I don’t know just how big that impact will be and it will tell a lot about TechPhan’s coaching abilities if he can improve upon last year’s record. The talent is mediocre enough to probably not challenge many or any of the human coached teams on the schedule but might be good enough to hold their own against all of the SIM teams. Biggest weakness is probably the secondary and overall there really is no major standout team strength but each area has some future upside. A playoff appearance would definitely be an outstanding feat in the 2nd season for TechPhan but even a solid 8 or 9 win season without making the playoffs would still be an acceptable goal and would improve vision which is ultimately the main goal.

Abilene Christian (Seniors Lost: 13) – Dhouston ran into a tough wall in the second round in last year’s playoffs when he had to face off against lyonzfan’s Indiana (PA), the future NC. It was overall a little disappointing of a regular season, which I thought held higher hopes than where the results ended up. Still, a season to bounce back but dhouston made it anything but an easy road to do so. Quincy, ESUP and SEO on the schedule as well as 6 other games against human coached teams, though I’d expect dhouston to come out the victor in each of those matchups. A strong SOS should likely get dhouston into the playoffs even with a 4th loss in the CCG. No room for mistakes against any of those other humans though. There will be little to no margin for error. A solid running game and a solid target at WR should help be able to mix it up a bit. There aren’t any glaring weaknesses on this squad which will help much needed consistency when facing as many human coached teams as ACU is. I expect a playoff appearance with most likely a seed somewhere between 4-6 but it’s possible to put up a #3 seed with a strong SOS and one or more upsets against the tougher three squads they’ll have to play. Once in the playoffs, it’s probably a first round win at best but with the right draw, who knows.

Eastern New Mexico (Seniors Lost: 15) – Poolguy had a very nice start with Eastern New Mexico by winning ten games and making the playoffs last season. There may have been some slightly better talent last year but it really hasn’t changed much during the offseason. It was an impressive finish with what they had last year, which was a whole lot of below average players, albeit a good amount of upperclassmen. A very nicely planned schedule has only three human coached opponents, all within conference, so the chances of another playoff run are potentially there. It could, however, come down to if the SOS is bad enough, will something like 2 losses still keep ENMU out of the playoff hunt. That being said, it’s realistic to believe they could end up going 12-1 if they can take care of all the SIMs on the schedule. Either way, Poolguy is off to a good start as a new coach and has a realistic goal of making the playoffs, though probably not past the first round, regardless of who the opponent is, unless maybe a lucky draw against a SIM. The talent isn’t going to be quite good enough to beat the likes of human coached playoff caliber teams.

Texas A&M-Kingsville (Seniors Lost: 14) – Lsutiger is a new coach, both to Warner and GD. The first not so good sign is that, up until this point, zero recruits have been signed or even shown interest in TAMK. At this point, that usually means it will be an all AC signed class. There would be otherwise reason to hope for some wins this year with a good amount of upperclassmen and some decent talent on both sides of the ball. Nothing spectacular but enough to take care of some weaker SIM teams. The good news is there are ten games against SIM teams and if Lsutiger is attentive during the season, that should equate to some success. It probably won’t be enough success to make a playoff run, but you never know. The goal here would be to get to 8 or more wins and improve vision, then taking advantage of that next recruiting class to try to improve team growth. Hopefully whatever reason that Lsutiger didn’t recruit this time around doesn’t happen again next year.

West Texas A&M (Seniors Lost: 13) – Dmac did a great job last year of getting to the playoffs with some suspect depth issues, which he will have to deal with even more so this year. Lots of walk-ons on the roster that is otherwise filled with somewhat solid starters for a mid-range, okay, playoff hopeful team. However, that weak depth is going to haunt WTAM this season as the schedule is not kind. There will have to be more than one upset for this team to even be considered in the playoff hunt by my calculations. Or maybe the SOS would be good enough to sneak in. I just don’t see how those upsets are going to happen though when you have walk-ons coming in off of the bench. It’s either that or all of your decent starters are getting way too tired to be effective. Dmac will most likely be looking to get to 7 or 8 wins and hope for the best, while next season continuing to try to improve on recruiting and avoiding walk-ons from doing too much in season damage. Rescinding a few scholarships should probably also be on the ballot for things to do at season’s end.

RMAC
Colorado-Mines (Seniors Lost: 7) – Tiltwar had a huge victory last season by not only getting his first CC with Mines, but it was Mines’ first CC ever in all of Warner DII history. So, congrats there. He had to wait out many seasons with gliatta having complete control. So a 14-0 regular season was still met by a disappointing first round loss against an up and coming Virginia State team that is well coached and did a good enough job to slide by Mines. But more CCs and good seasons are hopeful and I think the next hurdle is to make deeper playoff runs and have more and more solid recruiting classes. Tiltwar relies on the rare Wishbone offense and that type of team needs to have a solid defense, from top to bottom. There are some nice players on defense but overall there are too many issues the deeper you go to have as much success as the Wishbone will allow. A priority on defense in recruiting will help in the long run. Tiltwar proved he’s the team to beat in conference play last season so I’ll give the nod that that will remain the case. Highlands has a new coach, but nothing crazy better than last year as far as talent goes. It still won’t be a given that Mines will run away with the conference but that’s the only competition with gliatta’s Western being dead in the water. Another CC will be the goal with the hopes of at least a 2nd round playoff appearance.

New Mexico Highlands (Seniors Lost: 8) – Mattyice is excited to be in DII after six seasons of successful DIII play where he pulled down 4 CCs. There are definite areas of talent on this team that will certainly give Highlands a chance to contend for the conference and we’ll see just how skillful mattyice can be with what he has on the roster. There are still some spots that need to be addressed and that should be concerned about, but nothing that will shut down the chances for a CC in a conference with this little talent to begin with. It should be pretty close between Mines and Highlands for the crown. The schedule overall is very beatable outside of the Mines matchup, which is more of a toss up. Even with that loss and a loss in the CCG, playoffs would be likely attainable and that should be a solid first season goal. Getting out of the first round, on the other hand, is probably a bit unrealistic. I don’t see the SOS being high enough to really end up with a seed higher than 6th if Highlands has two losses. But if Highlands were to run the table and win both games against Mines, then that first round matchup just might be beatable. Time will tell.

SAC
Carson-Newman (Seniors Lost: 9) – I don’t quite know what to make of cubsfandave and Carson-Newman. Last year they were one and done in the playoffs. There were a lot of very close games against SIM coached teams that really shouldn’t have ever been close and then there were more impressive victories against some conference foes that were human coached so it’s very tough to tell what kind of game you’re going to get from CN with those types of inconsistencies. Add to that that this recruiting cycle has left only three of the nine spots filled for CN and what I will presume to end up as six walk-ons. That doesn’t bode well for preparation and it’s that kind of stuff that ultimately makes me think that the only game against a human (Truman State) this season will result in defeat. Even if that doesn’t, it’s proven that not all SIMs are automatic victories either. The talent is there to go 14-0 with the schedule at hand, for sure. I just don’t have a lot of confidence that last year’s consistency will change enough for that to happen. The season’s goal should be at least to win the conference and hopefully have at least one playoff win. Seeding and the right bracket draw will be very huge in deciding those possibilities though.

SIAC
Miles (Seniors Lost: 13) – Long time coach husker is taking over a Miles team that has some talent on the rise but still has their glaring weaknesses. Particularly at DB and two TEs that will both be true freshmen, although that’s a position that you can keep your weaknesses fairly well hidden. It’s just a lot nicer if you have a great advantage at TE, making other coaches have to deal with potential matchup nightmares and just focusing an extra piece of game planning around how to stop a dominant TE. But elsewhere has a lot of really nice players and a well rounded team. Exhibition went very well for husker but I honestly don’t know how much stock to ever put in that. We’ll be able to tell right out of the gate just how potentially good Miles can be under their new coach with games on Days 1 and 2 against Bryant and California (PA). Both games that could go either way. The coach with the most experience in each of those games is definitely going to be husker, with over 200 seasons total in all of GD under his belt. That’s why I give advantage to a team that may have a little less talent but a lot of other advantages just due to hours logged. An interesting conference matchup will be Miles vs. Saint Joe’s on Day 6, which may be very close and could definitely give Saint Joe’s enough trouble to wind up with a loss if not careful. Even if husker cruises with a win and is still undefeated at that point, I don’t think they have near enough talent to deal with the likes of Quincy in the CCG. But they certainly should meet them there, regardless of how many losses they have up until that point because there really isn’t another team in the north that can match them. Playoffs should be a realistic goal with potential to go to either the 2nd or 3rd round if they get a lucky draw.

Fort Valley State (Seniors Lost: 11) – Arigold comes into FVSU new to GD and looking to turn a program around that has only been to the playoffs four times and hasn’t been there in 45 seasons, and before that, not since season 6! Ouch. That’s a bad history. But, the last two years have totaled 20 wins under the previous coach, so things may be on the rise. There’s not a whole lot of talent to do so though. There are a few players here and there that look nice but overall it’s going to be tough to have immediate success. The good news is that there are only two humans on the schedule, both conference mates. They’ll almost undoubtedly lose both those games but the solid players they have may be enough to beat most of the SIMs. It will be pretty hard to tell just how successful arigold can be against all of those SIMs due to his lack of history in the game but almost all SIMs really are beatable with good game planning. So we’ll see just how much learning arigold does in his first Div. II season. I think anything above .500 will be solid, but certainly hoping for more like 9 or 10 wins. If FVSU does manage to beat all the SIMs, they may get in but they might be right on the bubble, depending on SOS, which shouldn’t be all that high.

Quincy (Seniors Lost: 9) – Brygold had an odd path to the playoffs and then in the playoffs last season. First he ended up only as a #4 seed with just an atrocious SOS, even though he ran the table and ended at 14-0. The only other top notch team that this happened to was Valdosta State (believe it or not had a worse SOS), and they ended up with the #5 seed in the same bracket. Pretty cruel, but I guess that’s what you get for keeping the OOC soft (certainly possible they both just forgot to schedule anyone as well). I thought Valdosta was the favorite. Both sides of the ball just seemed so stacked. But brygold put that idea down quickly with a convincing win and dominant defensive performance. This led to what I then thought was a solid favorite for Quincy to beat GVSU. After beating Valdosta State in the way that they did, I thought that might be too much for GVSU to handle. Shows what I know. GVSU basically did to Quincy exactly what Quincy did to Valdosta. So there you have it. Two teams that both easily could have been #1 seeds both out, one after another, in the first two rounds. I digress. A top tier QB and RB with a very strong O-Line top out the talent on offense. The D-Line really only has one really nice player but it’s the back seven where this defense really shines. An incredible LB core is surpassed by an even better secondary. It’s going to be tough to move the ball against this team, regardless of strengths or strategies you bring to the table. One team who has a great chance to put that theory to rest is Quincy’s opponent on Day 5: Indiana (PA). Like I said earlier, this one is just so close to call and I ultimately went with Indiana but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if bry steps up and shuts them down. Everyone else on the schedule doesn’t really stand a chance to be honest (that includes a sad Saint Joseph’s coach). That game on Day 5 will likely decide whether Quincy is a #1 or #2 seed going into the playoffs but we all know that either way, Quincy will have a chance to go all the way this year, which will clearly be the goal. Brygold is hungry for a championship and is probably getting tired of coming up empty handed. Maybe this is his year.

Saint Joseph’s (Seniors Lost: 12) – Saint Joe’s has been pretty consistent with the end of the year results over the last four seasons. Mark them down for 12 or 13 wins and a 2nd or 3rd round appearance in the playoffs. That may be the case again this season but this year involves a heck of a harder OOC schedule, in addition to two losable conference games. I have to be honest. I had no idea that OOC games could be randomly scheduled against other human coached teams. I guess it makes sense that that would happen but I had two open slots and pulled Valdosta State with one of them. Yuck. Needless to say, lesson learned and I’ll be deciding who I play from now on. Without that Valdosta game on Day 2, this schedule looked like it would produce anywhere from 10-12 wins, with at least yet another loss to Quincy. But with Valdosta in the picture, Saint Joe’s could realistically go 9-4 and potentially miss the playoffs (although I think the SOS would stand strong enough to get in). Any other unforeseen losses would most likely make those chances doomed. Then again, Valdosta is definitely not where they were last year and that game could be closer then I might think. I’ll let ranger or superv tell me just how much I’ll lose by ;) …on to other things. This offense will rely on its diversity as per usual. A hit to the O-Line is probably its biggest step backwards, but not insurmountably bad. The defense got better both on D-Line and a much needed improvement at DB but the LB core took a small step back. Lots of potential for many different end of season outcomes that range anywhere from bricking and missing the playoffs to another upset in the second round that would be a nice surprise. Season goal is to get 11 regular season wins and make it to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs.

NCC
South Dakota State (Seniors Lost: 10) – Jaylien’s season was ended last year at the hands of Mansfield in the 2nd round, but he certainly didn’t go down without a fight. In fact, just a seven point defeat was very impressive against a strong #1 seeded Mansfield team. After losing a star QB and a wonderful TE from last year’s team, SDSU will definitely have notably less talent on this year’s squad. Other positions are either equal or not much of a drop but the QB position especially is going from a top 3 QB to a RS sophomore that will just need more time to develop. It’s not going to single handedly lose them games but it will make every match against a quality opponent considerably more difficult. Those opponents are Saint Joe’s and UMC in the OOC and then Humboldt State in a presumable CCG matchup. The rest of the schedule doesn’t hold any formidable opponents really so getting into the playoffs probably won’t be an issue unless SOS is bad enough due to conference SIMs tanking in OOC. It’s certainly still doable to win the conference and that absolutely should still be a goal this year, in addition to getting to the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs. Third round seems unlikely so they’ll need the right draw to do so.

North Dakota State (Seniors Lost: 16) – Frmrd3coach was New Mexico Highlands coach last season so I don’t know if he just forgot to renew or wanted a change of pace already but here he is now at NDSU, a school ripe with zero success. I really do mean zero success. As in zero playoff trips in the history of Warner. That’s bad. So this will certainly be an uphill battle if frmrd3coach wants to make history. And now due to the SIM going 9-4 last season and a bunch of humans lining up to get NDSU on the schedule, they have a brutal OOC and besides that, this team isn’t very good. It certainly wasn’t the worst SIM last year but this team still has its share of issues. There will be some starting true freshmen and even the more experienced players at the skill positions aren’t going to make much of a difference in competing. I think the main goal this season is to get the younger players playing time in the games they don’t stand a chance anyway and then try to squeak out as many victories against the SIMs as possible and increase vision and have solid recruiting classes. Can’t ask for much more than that right now. Playoffs isn’t even close to a realistic possibility here. There are just too many good teams to face to be able to overcome.

Humboldt State (Seniors Lost: 13) – Tampa did a tremendous job getting a solid team to their second straight conference championship as well as an unlikely #2 seed in the playoffs. They had a tough loss in the 2nd round that I thought would end in their favor after their hot streak had been going on so long. Still an impressive season that allowed players extra growth and improvement after playing 16 games and going 13-3. This team is certainly stronger on the offensive side of the ball and that part is pretty well rounded. The defense has no real obvious strengths and the secondary is the weakest and sports no seniors. The bright side of that is that there will be nothing but improvement for those DBs next year. A smart OOC schedule should provide a 4-1 start with a strong SOS to boot. That’s always a good way to write it up. Especially in a conference where there are only two other human coached teams and neither of them are in your division. This will certainly be concluded with Humboldt making the CCG and the story the last two years has been one of success in the title game. I think this year’s goals are to win another CC and maybe aim for another #2 seed that will instead make the 3rd round of the playoffs. Asking to get the semis may be a bit too hopeful but tampa would love that surprise.

NE-10
Long Island (Seniors Lost: 10) – Jjohn lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs last year but still had a great, undefeated regular season and won the conference. This year’s team has a top notch WR and great RB to go along with an overall solid offense. The defense has no weaknesses that stand out but at the same time won’t be stopping powerhouse offenses either. However, they won’t have to do much of this throughout the season as their schedule is mostly tame. Bryant is definitely a weaker team this year so I think the gap is actually further in Long Island’s favor. OOC presents an interesting matchup between Long Island vs. Virginia State. I wouldn’t sleep on this game. Pistol has done well with Virginia State thus far and the not so good recruits that he was doing it with the last two years are now more experienced and certainly improved. I would still give the nod to Long Island in this game, but it has upset potential written on it. Even if that were a loss (which I still doubt it), I don’t really see another loss on the schedule, which would put them in a decent position come playoff time. They would certainly hope to avoid anything worse than a #3 seed, as it’s there they could maybe find themselves being bounced out in the first round. The goal will be to win the conference again, and make it to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs. Beyond that will likely be tough but the team has enough talent on the roster to be able to pull off an upset against some of the top teams.

Bryant (Seniors Lost: 9) – It wasn’t that long ago that Bryant had a lock down on the NE-10. But the last several seasons have resulted in some disappointments. But last year was a bounce back that ended with a 12-1 regular season finish that placed Bryant in a winnable first round matchup. That draw was against ESUP, which turned out to be bad luck. Badaxe’s team was on a tear and hot as can be and absolutely put a massive beat down on bribigdog’s team. It was something like 41-0 at half. That one surprised me quite a bit. The fact still remains that last year was a good sign for Bryant to get back to double digit wins and have better success in the regular season. This year’s roster still looks solid up and down minus the secondary, which is really going to struggle. One solid senior but besides that, it’s not looking good. The good news is there isn’t a whole ton to worry about on the schedule but any slip ups could spell trouble for the playoffs. There was some solid DB recruiting this session for bribigdog but that will likely not have the immediate impact that he would hope for. This year’s goals are to lost no more than 2 regular season games and make the playoffs again with the hopes of winning a first round matchup. This team can definitely get back on track, but it might take a few more years to get to where they were.

Stonehill (Seniors Lost: 15) – TheGreatJDP is new to GD and Warner DII so he’ll have a nice welcome with a very difficult OOC schedule to start things off. It goes GVSU, West Chester, Northern State, Glenville, Cheyney. All human coached teams except for Glenville, which was human coached the last 40+ seasons. Some of these games are winnable but we’ll immediately find out what kind of coach JDP is and how up to the challenge he is. The in conference matchups are a little nicer but this will be a very tough schedule to try to get to the playoffs. Particularly because Stonehill is most likely going to be in the CCG and a loss there may just spell ruin. Stonehill was a solid enough team last season to go 12-2 and make the playoffs as a SIM so this isn’t inevitably doomsday. There is some spread out talent on offense and some solid players on defense, though the secondary could use some help. Playoff chances will likely come down to SOS and if it’s top ten or not. If it is, they might just get in. Goals are to hang around with all the tough matchups to begin the year and try to avoid getting blown out, then blow out every SIM they can to try to have that MOV be as good as possible. 10 wins seems really tough, 9 is doable. JDP should be happy to get to 9 wins, regardless of if he makes the playoffs or not, because it will be out of his hands at that point. A playoff win is just a pipe dream though. So, increase vision (or keep it where it is I guess) and good recruiting next year to continue to control the west division. Probably a good idea to tone down the OOC schedule next year as well.

Concord (Seniors Lost: 6) – My expectations for bballc and Concord ended up being quite too high last season as they were only able to manage 4 wins. I guess I overestimated just how much a lack of talent can do to a team, even when playing against SIMs for the most part. This year should get a bit better though. The schedule was set up to be beatable and there aren’t many automatic losses there. With a year under his belt, bballc will have some more talent and ability to get closer to where I was predicting last year. It’s still not going to be perfect and there will be bumps along the way, but there should be more bright spots to the year, preparing for a better chance at making the playoffs next season. On offense the WRs still need a lot of work so I’d expect a lot of reliance on the running game and trying to control the clock. The defense needs lots of help. Both the LB core and secondary are real bad. Time to allow players to grow is the only thing that will help this problem, which means it’s going to be tough to try to stick to the most advantageous game script when offenses can kind of do whatever they want to your defense. The good part of that is that SIM coaches are pretty predictable. The end goal for this year is to try to get to 8 or 9 wins and improve vision. Things should take a turn for better possibilities with each year passing.

MIAA
Truman State (Seniors Lost: 15) – Mgoblue is new at Truman State and this will be an important year for him. A lot of the very good players that this team has are seniors and next year the talent is going to look a lot worse on the roster. Might as well get while the getting’s good. Truman State is another SIM that made the playoffs last season and even pulled out a shocking upset to beat Lock Haven in the CCG for the CC. They were bounced in the first round but that was still to be expected. Those good seniors on this team are at nearly every position but the depth at certain positions, like DB, LB and TE, is full of walk-ons who can really make matters worse in close games. In addition, only 9 of the 15 scholarships were filled this year so that will set the team back a bit more. The OOC is very tough for Truman State. They’d be thrilled if they came out of it 3-2, which is definitely possible but they’ll have to beat teams similar in strength to do so. After that is a nice and soft conference schedule where they only drew one of the three human coaches in cross division. The SOS should be good enough to survive maybe even 4 losses if that last loss is in the CCG, but they won as a SIM last year so there’s nothing to make a win impossible from happening this season as well. I think the goal is certainly to at least make the playoffs but also to back up last year’s conference championship with another. That’ll be tough to do for sure, but Truman State should aim high while they can. A first round playoff win would most likely be expected if they win the conference, as long as they don’t dip below 2 losses.

Lock Haven (Seniors Lost: 10) – Donbrenner was able to find a couple of nice playoff wins against Northern State and Humboldt State but fell victim to Indiana, as did everyone else. It was disappointing to not come away with the conference title when they had the chance against a SIM. Truman State had solid talent but LH really should have been able to take care of business there, especially considering their performances in the playoffs. Even though the schedule has four human coached opponents this year, it’s still cake and should provide an undefeated result heading into the CCG where they will most likely again face Truman State, now coached by mgoblue. Some very great talent at RB and WR but very little depth behind them. That could certainly be an issue. The D-Line looks very solid while the secondary is decent but the LB core leaves something to be desired. Overall this team can certainly threaten some of the talented teams at the top but they’ll have to bring their A-game and maybe catch some lucky breaks. The SOS will be a deciding factor of how good the playoff seed is. At first glance, that seed looks like it might be pretty low for a 14-0 team. My projections have Lock Haven with the 139th ranked SOS and that will almost definitely not be good enough to get past a #4 seed. But even 20 or 30 spots up and a #3 seed is certainly doable. And a prediction like that is certainly not set in stone, just a ballpark figure. The goal for LH is to go 14-0 and make at least another 3rd round appearance, while giving themselves the best chance at upsetting someone to make it to the semis. Those are high hopes but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Southwest Baptist (Seniors Lost: 12) – Flippen has made the playoffs in back to back years after a 3 year drought. Both first round eliminations but solid seasons for where the team is at talent wise. There is really no spot on either side of the ball that is really good. Mostly average to below average players. But flippen has done a decent job of challenging human opponents to closer battles than I would guess going in, and also to not have many issues against the SIMs. But keeping it close may just not cut it this year as the schedule is pretty stocked with losable matches. OOC has three games that SWB will be going in as the underdog, as well as two more in conference, if not possibly a third game against Cheyney. That one will probably be more of a coin flip, one that I give flippen a small edge at due to what history has shown me. Even with a win in that game and 5 losses elsewhere, I don’t think they’ll have the type of SOS to get in as a 5 loss team. All that being said, I guess the goal is to still try to make the playoffs. Maybe they can find an upset somewhere and get in for a third year in a row. That will be anything but easy but it wouldn’t be the first time flippen’s team has over-performed.

Cheyney (Seniors Lost: 12) – Tmburton had a decent start with Cheyney last year, going 7-6. Things might have been able to be a tad better but really not much, realistically speaking. This team has more talent in most areas for a team that is ranked where they are, but their ranking is dropped by a very poor back seven. It’s going to be tough stopping teams moving the ball through the air, regardless of who the targets are. The offense might be able to do a little bit of damage but they will likely not be able to keep up against better talent for very long at all. The good news is there are not a whole lot of talented teams on the schedule. Only three human coached teams and one of them is winnable. Maybe two but doubtful. This is the type of team that may falter to against a SIM along the way and that’s why I think it’s a long shot to make the playoffs. I projected them at 9-4 (which may be optimistic) and with the SOS they will likely have, that definitely won’t be enough. They could even miss the playoffs at 11-2 with a likely poor MOV. So I think the goal is to at least match last year’s record but hope for 8 or 9 wins instead. That would still be a win, with anything beyond that a nice surprise.

GSC
Arkansas Tech (Seniors Lost: 17) – Aidancromer was able to come out the best team in the north and with a loss in the CCG, he finished at 7-7. Not terrible for the first season, and the CCG loss was inevitable as it was against Valdosta State, who had an all around stacked roster. The offense has some okay WRs and a decent TE but this O-Line is just atrociously bad. It’s going to be tough to get the balls to the receivers with no time to throw the ball. The defense has even more problems as the D-Line and LB core are both about as bad as the O-Line and the two DBs on the roster are serviceable but that’s the problem, there are only two of them. Four DBs were picked up in recruiting but that’s a lot of inexperience that is immediately put to the test. Another issue is with recruiting. Seventeen scholarships to fill and only nine are currently filled. This late in recruiting and that’s probably where they will end up standing. That will only help delay the process of improving these weak spots. Aidancromer may have taken on a bit too much in OOC. Three games against teams that will almost certainly win and to add to those troubles, a cross division schedule that really hurts. First there is Delta State, then immediately followed by Valdosta State. Those will most likely be the first two daggers when it comes to playoff chances. For my projections, I have Arkansas Tech going to the CCG and upon further inspection, I may have exaggerated those chances of success. This team may not get to 7 wins, maybe not even to 6. I must have rushed that hypothesis because the more I look, the more this team’s chances at losing to some of these SIMs as well as all the humans looks more viable. So, realistically, I would say the season goals are more like finish over .500 or even getting to six wins might be a good goal. Just too many problems across the board to do much better.

West Alabama (Seniors Lost: 16) – Nitros’ goals last year were to win three games. There were several games that were very close at half time but those just got worse in the second half and West Alabama finished 0-13 instead. But good recruiting got the team to jump from a bottom ten team to just below average among the 144 teams in DII. Another excellent class this season should have nitros in competition within the next few years or so. The talent on the roster is still pretty rough but it’s starting to look up, especially compared to last season. A wide open schedule of opportunity knocks as the only two human coached teams on the schedule are both beatable. This leaves only issues with SIMs to occur, which will probably happen along the way in spots but finishing over .500 should absolutely be not only possible, but I’d say expected. There is a good chance to come out of the North to face a likely Valdosta State in the CCG and even with a blowout loss, it’ll be nice to have an extra game of growth for the players. I don’t know if it’s too early to make the playoffs or not. The SOS will likely be horrid, so anything less than 12-1 is most likely not going to be good enough to get in. Even 12-1 with a bad loss in the CCG and 12-2 might not make it in. It seems tough for a team of this caliber to not let at least one game from a better SIM slip through their hands. But things are looking up for nitros and I’d say a good goal would be 8 or 9 wins.

Valdosta State (Seniors Lost: 15) – Superv found himself in a bad first round situation as the #5 seed going up against #4 seed Quincy. It was some bad luck but the SOS was at fault and so if anything, it was avoidable bad luck. I really thought superv’s team was one of the sure teams to beat going into the playoffs, even as a #5 seed and thought that they’d be able to edge Quincy out and certainly thought they’d be able to put some points up on the board. A three point first half said otherwise. Really, they didn’t end up doing much of anything on offense all game. The loss was a very disappointing end to a flawless but unchallenged regular season. And now this team has a considerable amount less talent. Don’t get me wrong, they are still a top ten team for sure but that was compared to last year, when they were certainly a top five, if not top three team (talent wise at least). There is still plenty to be afraid of with two very good RBs and a great O-Line. The defense is bolstered by a really great LB core, both with top end talent and excellent depth. One very good DB is followed by a group that may be solid fill ins but nothing excellent. The D-Line is great but might have a few depth issues with only having four non-freshmen players. The OOC has a couple of very interesting games. On Day 2, they will be a solid favorite against Saint Joseph’s and on Day 5, they will most likely be a slight underdog to Mansfield. There shouldn’t be any hitches in conference play, so we’re most likely looking at a final record of anywhere from 12-2 to 14-0. I projected right in the middle. The goal this year is to win the conference and give themselves the best chances for an improbable, yet still possible, run for a NC. They’d have to have a pretty lucky draw I think, and even then, I just don’t know if I see it. But if they were to make it to the NC, anything can certainly happen in one game.

Delta State (Seniors Lost: 20) – Ftbeaglesfan has spent the last two years getting knocked out of the first round of the playoffs. This year is going to be filled with a very young and inexperienced team. There are still some very solid upperclassmen though and it shouldn’t be too hard to win the games that Delta will be expected to win. There are really only three likely losses on the schedule and I think the SOS will pass for a mid to bottom range playoff team. This is one of those situations where it will be better for them to not have to play a tough CCG because any more than 3 losses would probably be trouble. So with no mistakes in the games they should win, and I like their chances of getting in. That’s probably where the extent of this team’s season goals should be at though. Another first round defeat would be acceptable and probably expected for how young they’ll be. But a playoff trip should still be a minimum goal. They have enough talent for that.

Henderson State (Seniors Lost: 24) – Twenty four seniors are gone and that leaves a LOT of youngsters that oddly enough, really will not be forced to start. Each position will have starters filled up except for punter and kicker. This still leaves a ton of depth issues, basically everywhere. And it’s really not like all these starters are good to begin with, so there may be some freshmen starting as it is. There’s really nowhere that this team excels in and I think we can expect a large number in the loss column. I see maybe five potential wins, and that is an at most number. Rainman will probably want to get his youngsters as much playing time as possible to get them to start growing quickly, while still trying to win the games they have a chance at. Chances at success will get better in a few years at the earliest and that’s probably still mild success. This year’s goal is to win somewhere between 2-4 wins, I would say.

GLIAC
Grand Valley State (Seniors Lost: 14) – GVSU was the lucky team to face the winner of the Quincy/Valdosta State first round game last year. Obviously, that was a pretty bad bracket draw but realist found a way to shut Quincy’s offense down and really take control of the game and cruised to victory in one of the hardest 2nd round matchups you’ll ever have. Then they had to beat a red hot ESUP team and did so. But they faced one too many great PSAC teams and lost to Indiana (PA) in the semis. Still a very solid and impressive season for GVSU. This team seems to be getting better and better so eventually, I think they can break through. The offense really doesn’t have any weaknesses and a great WR crew with a nice QB to throw to them. The defense is excellent in every way. This team’s biggest strength to me seems to be the consistent quality at every spot. No real obvious weaknesses and every area is strong as well. I think the OOC schedule was set up very appropriately to be able to have a great chance at walking away from it 5-0 while at the same time building a nice resume and great SOS. Ferris State is the only team to worry about in conference and back when they had closer games between the two teams, GVSU wasn’t nearly this all around good. The two toughest games will most likely be SEO and Humboldt State but I like GVSU in both games. If they can find their way through the season to go undefeated and get a #1 seed, they’ll be in a nice position to get themselves back to the semis while trying to make it one step further to try to win a NC. This team certainly has all the tools to do so and that will ultimately be its biggest goal but they’re going to have to get through some of those top of the line coaches to do it. Even with losing 14 seniors, they replaced them with 13 more seniors so no terrible losses there. I personally don’t know if I think this is GVSU’s year to go all the way but I know realist would love if that were the case.

Indianapolis (Seniors Lost: 12) – Indianapolis struggled and went 7-6 last season and have been losing a little ground the last few seasons. They still have some solid talent, including a pretty nice QB and a very solid TE, but their biggest strength on offense is their O-Line. Defensively they have a little more to work on but they should be well rounded enough to keep themselves in games against at least similarly ranked teams. The schedule is looking pretty good for that as there are only two games that look like more obvious losses. This would be a good year to get back on track and put a few more wins in the win column. I like a solid 10 win season and a hopeful shot at the playoffs. They’ll have to hope for a good enough SOS and really try to take advantage against the weak SIMs to bury them and get that MOV up. I think a realistic goal is to make the playoffs with a 10 or 11 win regular season. First round would probably be a loss but making it to the playoffs would already be a victory in and of itself.

Ferris State (Seniors Lost: 10) – After three really nice seasons in a row with a combined total of 40 wins, this team has taken a bit of a step back with going 11-4 and losing in the 1st round. But with how many players they lost last year, that was kind of expected. There is still some progression that needs to happen and besides the O-Line, this team is still fairly weak on offense. This team has generally been more of a defensive minded team and tries to grind things out with solid line play and keeping scores low, but in order to start competing with GVSU for conference titles, they’ll have to start improving on both sides of the ball. Besides games against Quincy and GVSU, the schedule is quite wide open and they should be right there in the end for a rematch against GVSU in the CCG. I still think the talent gap is too wide for Ferris State to make much of a game of either of those two, but they surprised me and stole the conference three seasons ago so we know that jmayhew has that in him. I think a more realistic objective this year, however, is to make the playoffs and try to get one playoff win. That sounds like it would be a decent achievement in the short term.

Findlay (Seniors Lost: 11) – Alanmr123 is a new coach to Findlay and to GD. He’ll have some pretty decent players to start his journey with. The one main weakness of this team might be at QB. While not terrible, it might be enough to halt more drives than one desires. There are other spots to the offense that will help that and they might rely a bit more on the RBs and keeping it on the ground to try to control the clock. But this isn’t a ground and pound kind of team so they’ll still need to mix it up here and there. This team has some interesting games on the schedule that I could really see going either way and a lot of that will be dependent on what kind of coach Alanmr can be. If he learns quickly, Findlay can be a threat to both Indianapolis and Ferris State. If he has early on troubles like a lot of us do and did, then there might be trouble against a team like Concord that has improved quite a bit over last year and also has an experienced coach. It should be interesting. It was tough to make a projection for a team with some alright talent but coached by a newbie. I ended up going with 9-4 but that could be as good as 12-1 if those other coaches sleep on the new guy if he happens to be a quick learner. That would certainly be a fantastic start but I think a more realistic goal is to finish with 9 or 10 wins and hope that’s good enough to get into the playoffs. My guess is that 9 wouldn’t be and 10 would but that’s awfully hard to predict at this stage.

CIAA
Virginia State (Seniors Lost: 10) – Pistol has done a nice job outplaying the expectations of VSU in his first couple years with the team. And now that things have started to develop, we’ll see if he can continue to go a bit further. That’s certainly going to be a little too tough to challenge NCCU for the conference, but last year’s 2nd round playoff exit could potentially turn into a 3rd round exit this year with the right draw and an upset or two. He certainly didn’t skimp on the OOC with Millersville and Indiana (PA) on days 3 and 4, and then follow that up with Long Island on day 5 and you have three very tough games in a row. I could see a potential upset in that Long Island game. He was lucky enough to not pull NCCU in cross division but he’ll be forced to play them in the CCG. If that sparked a 4th loss, they might be on the bubble but I’m doubtful that would be the case with a most likely solid SOS. Talent wise, this team still looks to be a step back from doing much damage but that’s what I thought the last two years and they’ve performed solidly, sometimes against competitive teams. The D-Line is this team’s best strength where as the secondary is probably its biggest weakness. So if they can get enough pressure on opposing QBs, that’ll be the most effective way to stop an air assault. By season’s end, VSU expects to be in the playoffs and is probably hoping for another playoff win, though two wins seems unlikely, I wouldn’t necessarily be super shocked if it happened, given the right draw.

Bowie State (Seniors Lost: 14) – Back to back 8-5 finishes with two top 40 rankings in the last two seasons hasn’t been quite enough to make a trip to the playoffs but has been somewhat solid for where Bowie State is compared to its closer counterparts. There seemed to be some issues recruiting last year as the team is ranked lower than they were (if I’m not mistaken) and it looks like there are some walk-ons. No walk-ons this year as recruiting seemed to go well. Obviously not a class of amazing talent but vision is still low. There is still a lot of work to be done on offense and it won’t be easy to move the ball. Their starting RB is probably their best bet but he’s no superstar. The defense looks a little bit better but they’re going to have some depth issues in the back seven. This year has some hills to climb if they want to get back to 8-5 and playoffs don’t look very feasible. An OOC with three opponents who are fairly sure to win. In conference starts with NCCU which is a bad draw (but really, when preparing OOC matchups, it’s always safest to assume you’re going to have a bad cross division draw, especially if you think you’ll be a bubble team or need to do something extra in order to have a chance at the playoffs). Then is Elizabeth City and Virginia State the last two days of the regular season. EC is not an automatic win and Virginia State seems more likely to be a loss. At the end of the year, I’m sure brbhn would love to be back at 8-5, but I really think anything better than that is unrealistic. So the objective would be to keep on shooting for as many wins as possible and remain consistent, while recruiting as best as the vision allows.

Elizabeth City (Seniors Lost: 16) – I’m not exactly sure why, but this is the 2nd straight year Paco has failed to recruit. This seems odd as this is just his 2nd season ever in GD DII. I don’t know if he’s on autopilot or real life suddenly got in the way but whatever the case may be, it’s a pretty good recipe for disaster. Even with there being okay starters at most positions, the moment any one of these backups come in, things will go very, very poorly. I’m talking about massive plays given up on defense and easy turnovers on offense. I really, really screwed up my projection for EC with giving them a 10-3 record. There is no chance that happens. I’m thinking I either need to start this portion of the blog first or just do some damn better research (I’m leaning towards the latter) because it’s honestly pretty embarrassing to predict this team would go 10-3 with what they have. On the other hand, at the time I had no idea that paco would fail to recruit again. It’s probably a better idea to set all the starters to be subbed out at 60 stamina than it would be to let the walk-ons play because I honestly think 60% effectiveness of these starters is much more profitable than the lengths these walk-ons would screw up. Last year was 7-6 but it’s going to be hard to rack up as many as 5 wins this season. A proper goal would be to start recruiting but that won’t happen if real life is stopping it (which is certainly understandable; this is just a game after all) or paco is on autopilot.

North Carolina Central (Seniors Lost: 17) – Kevinbigham lost a tough one to mojolad’s Millersville last year in the semis. The game looked securely in the hands of NCCU and mojo came up with a great comeback to meet his conference mate lyonzfan in the finals. The time to win was certainly better last year than it will be this year for NCCU. Losing 17 seniors is definitely an issue, especially when you’re replacing them with only eight seniors. That being said, this team is still great and definitely has NC potential. The offense shines more than the defense as the LB core and secondary are, while solid, both considerably less talented than they were last season. This team has a great QB, very good RB and three awesome WRs to throw to. That will be how they can count on taking the opposition down. The schedule looks very set up for an undefeated run going into the playoffs (sorry pistol, VSU can’t compete with these guys yet). This is the kind of team that feels to me like they could exit in the 2nd or 3rd round with a tough bracket draw and could make a NC run with a soft bracket draw. I think if they could match their semifinal appearance from last year that that would be a successful achievement this season. They should expect to likely get to the 3rd round but if they face a tough 2nd round opponent, they shouldn’t be too devastated with a loss.
4/11/2016 10:54 AM (edited)
ickiwonkin, I continue to be impressed with the amount of thought you put into this...and the presentation is always enjoyable! Thank you for making the time!
4/8/2016 11:21 AM
Thanks, metcalf! Doing my best!

Five conferences total are up so far. I will possibly be able to get another one or two done tonight but we'll see. Hope everyone's recruiting is going well :)
4/8/2016 6:36 PM
Posted by metcalf on 4/8/2016 11:21:00 AM (view original):
ickiwonkin, I continue to be impressed with the amount of thought you put into this...and the presentation is always enjoyable! Thank you for making the time!
More than impressed.
4/8/2016 6:43 PM
Only three more conferences left to do now, GSC, GLIAC and CIAA. It's a possibility I get anywhere from zero to all three of them done some time today. We'll just see how up to the task I feel to do more or not.
4/9/2016 6:46 PM
Icki, I enjoy your reports more than the GD Reports ! Great Blog !
4/10/2016 3:08 AM
Really love the reviews. Great work. Thanks for putting in the effort. To be frank, this is why I am in this world.
4/10/2016 9:40 AM
Great read, thanks!!
4/10/2016 12:50 PM
Brilliant read. Thanks icki!
4/11/2016 9:06 AM
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