just had my draft in Guinness. 18/18 mil in draft scouting & 20 mil in advance, #3 pick. Pitcher shows up on my prospects projected 86 overall with lights out ratings except for durability which was supposedly 15 with 75 stamina. Turns out once hes drafted & signed his stamina is projected to be 4 and he is now a 73 overall and with that low a stamina almost useless no? Absolutely wasted pick.

I've noticed with the past two drafts I've had, 18 mill and 20 mill respectively that my pre-signing projections have been waaaaaay off. For my 20 mill scouting I saw a guy projected to be mid 80's VsR and high 70's for control. After signing he has low 30's across the board. He's HS but I can't see him gaining 50-60 points.

So far I'm not a fan of the changes made to drafting. It seems like projections are random numbers, but I haven't been through enough seasons to have a strong opinion on that.

If you saw 15 DUR, and how you see 4, a swing of 11 isn't out of line with other difference in other ratings I've seen (with lower budgets).

What sucks for you is that DUR and STM have always been subject to what I'm sure was not the intent of the original coders. Pitchers have to pitch a reasonable amount to improve all ratings. Very low DUR and STM prevent pitching more than 20-30 inn a season. So those ratings don't go up, no matter what you have in Training.

Hopefully you've got a 50-60 inn closer on your hands.

I agree with tufft. We did a bit of talking in Gibson world after the draft and we found that all owners that had a high scouting (18 mill or above) were all getting similar numbers for similar players that we ranked at the top. The problem being with this, I think we found something. It looks like a players ratings can be split into two categories.

A players 'true ratings' or the ratings you see after you sign a player wth your advance scouting budget are the ones your player is mostly likely to hit and are the best projected ratings to go off of. The problem of course being, you don't see these until after the player signs.

the fuzzy ratings are a number generated completely seperate from the true ratings. We don't know if these ratings have anything to do with the true ratings, but based off of the last few drafts it seems unlikely. So when you spend more money into HS and COLL scouting, you get closer to the projections of these generated 'fuzzy ratings'. The problem is, with the generated ratings of the fuzzy ratings being sometimes 20+ points off of the true ratings, it doesn't mean much.

In Riley I had $20 million HS. I ended up drafting the guy third on my board overall. His line looked like this.

Control: 76
VsL: 58
VsR: 81

now that I signed his current ratings are

Control: 38
VsL: 32
VsR: 43

i don't even need to worry about the Adv to know that he's not coming close to those projections. Which brings up the question, why bother spending $20 mill on scouting?

What I think $20M in HS or COL buys you:
Half the players you see you will have reasonably accurate projections on
About a third of the players you see you will be about 5-7 points high in key categories
About a sixth of the players you see you will be double digit high in key categories.

What I think has happened:

People wanted "more realistic" results where 12th rounders could be BL players.

People do not like "more realistic" results because they are not getting sure things in the 1st/2nd rounds.


People, please figure out what you want and get back to us.

Thanks in advance.

I'm not seeing BL guys in later rounds either. As far as I can tell. I haven't yet heard anyone say that a players ratings were better then they expected after they signed them. I think that's the big thing for me. Ratings are always projected too high.

So it's your contention that players just aren't as good? Because that's what you're saying.

In the critical news post the programmers said the scouts could be off in a favorable way also. Is this not the case?

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/4/2016 6:40:00 AM (view original):
So it's your contention that players just aren't as good? Because that's what you're saying.

I'm saying that the projections are only always over and never under. They can have the players the same as they always were. I have no issue with that. But even if it were one or two guys that everyone say as a bench guy or a AAAA guy that, when signed looks like an everyday player, that would be cool. The sim doesn't need to put more guys that are everyday BL players in the draft, just hide a few of them.

Its too much like life now. Everything is a disapointment and then you die.

trev, I have yet to hear or see of one yet. If anyone wanted to site examples where it happened I'd be interested to see.



really, what dedelman said is probably true and I've probably just had the luck of picking guys in that last 1/6th area. It's more musings then complaining, back before the fuzzy ratings there was only limited results I could expect from picking 24-30th anyways so it's not like that changed.

Well, I'll disagree with you first sentence right off the bat. I've signed guys with crazy differences in splits and, shockingly, one is high and the other is low.

For instance, I'll see a split of 18/93. I know that's wrong. There are a few hitters like that but never a pitcher. I sign the P and he's current of 33/41. Now I recognize he may never be a BL pitcher but I knew there was no way 18/93 was right.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/4/2016 12:52:00 AM (view original):
What I think has happened:

People wanted "more realistic" results where 12th rounders could be BL players.

People do not like "more realistic" results because they are not getting sure things in the 1st/2nd rounds.


People, please figure out what you want and get back to us.

Thanks in advance.

100% agreement with this.

We also have guys saying "Draft comp doesn't work that way in real life." "Players don't get worse just because you send them down to the minors in real life." "(Fill in the blank) in real life."

Well in real life you also have a Brien Taylor getting in a fight in a parking lot and destroying his pitching arm. Josh Hamilton taking half a season off due to injury and finding heroin. Matt Bush going to prison for drunk driving homicide.

Their original teams are probably disappointed the projections weren't accurate.

I suspect that the overall points that are distributed among the various categories don't really change but their distribution might - depending on whats spent. But I am not entirely sure of that.

I am in two leagues right now that are coming up on the draft. I am gonna capture before and after to see what the results are. One is 20/20 HS/ADV and one is 14/14. I figure I - might - get a decent look at the differences. I'll post them later on.

Here is a 20th round pick that I saw as 40 or so overall that became a 89 overall after I drafted him. Same league another team had this happen last season. So it is going both ways, but obviously it isn't happening as often.

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