Scroll to end to find most recent ELO rating post!

Posting here until I figure out how to get a table in a nice format on Wilkinson Central.

Elo ratings after week 3:

1	Northeastern	1937
2	Drake University	1931
3	Eastern Kentucky	1927
4	Tennessee Tech	1884
5	Sacred Heart	1884
6	Eastern Illinois	1852
7	Holy Cross	1851
8	Columbia	1850
9	SHSU	1843
10	Portland State	1836
11	JSU	1807
12	Villanova	1793
13	Cal Poly	1792
14	Liberty	1782
15	Youngstown State	1777
16	SMSU	1760
17	Alabama A&M	1755
18	Duquesne	1734
19	Albany	1732
20	Jacksonville	1729
21	James Madison	1715
22	Morgan State	1711
23	Massachusetts	1709
24	Maine	1698
25	Georgetown	1682
26	Texas State	1681
27	Texas Southern	1670
28	Howard	1665
29	Lehigh	1661
30	San Diego	1643
31	Montana State	1641
32	UA	1638
33	SC State	1637
34	Robert Morris	1629
35	Northern Iowa	1624
36	Princeton	1622
37	TennesseeMartin	1614
38	ETSU	1613
39	Coastal Carolina	1608
40	Grambling State	1607
41	Murray State	1598
42	MVSU	1597
43	St. Mary`s	1580
44	Yale University	1566
45	UTC	1558
46	Florida Atlantic	1556
47	Northern Arizona	1545
48	Samford	1543
49	McNeese State	1539
50	Norfolk State	1539
51	Marist College	1521
52	Florida A&M	1519
53	Austin Peay	1518
54	Savannah State	1505
55	ASU	1499
56	Delaware State	1494
57	Siena College	1482
58	Iona College	1481
59	Harvard	1480
60	SFA	1472
61	Alabama State	1467
62	Delaware	1466
63	Southern Utah	1455
64	Wofford College	1453
65	Weber State	1450
66	Valparaiso	1443
67	SIU	1442
68	BethuneCookman	1440
69	Lafayette	1435
70	NC A&T	1434
71	Missouri State	1433
72	Pennsylvania	1424
73	Illinois State	1417
74	Dartmouth	1415
75	Elon University	1415
76	Morehead State	1410
77	The Citadel	1402
78	SLU	1402
79	Nicholls State	1399
80	Rhode Island	1391
81	Davidson College	1390
82	Dayton	1388
83	St. Peter`s	1380
84	FIU	1379
85	Wagner College	1375
86	Richmond	1370
87	GardnerWebb	1366
88	Cornell	1359
89	Jackson State	1351
90	Furman	1349
91	Indiana State	1338
92	Hofstra	1328
93	William & Mary	1326
94	Butler	1324
95	CCSU	1321
96	Brown University	1318
97	California State	1312
98	Prairie View	1309
99	EWU	1305
100	Stony Brook	1300
101	Colgate	1298
102	Monmouth	1295
103	CSU	1292
104	VMI	1288
105	NWSU	1276
106	Towson	1274
107	New Hampshire	1266
108	Western Kentucky	1262
109	Fordham	1260
110	Tennessee State	1256
111	Alcorn State	1227
112	La Salle	1217
113	Bucknell	1215
114	SU	1204
115	Idaho State	1173
116	St. Francis	1131
117	Western Illinois	1131
118	Western Carolina	1130
119	Georgia Southern	1109
120	Hampton	1102

Thanks, btw

Updated after week 5. Northeastern closing in on the first team to reach 2000. St Francis closing in on first to reach triple digits (what I like to call the reigny region!)

1	Northeastern	1960
2	Eastern Kentucky	1935
3	Sacred Heart	1930
4	Columbia	1916
5	Holy Cross	1912
6	Drake University	1895
7	Eastern Illinois	1890
8	Tennessee Tech	1869
9	Portland State	1862
10	Liberty	1841
11	SHSU	1835
12	JSU	1824
13	Villanova	1798
14	Youngstown State	1782
15	Cal Poly	1769
16	Albany	1741
17	Maine	1738
18	Massachusetts	1733
19	Morgan State	1730
20	Jacksonville	1723
21	Duquesne	1718
22	Texas State	1718
23	Alabama A&M	1715
24	SMSU	1715
25	Northern Iowa	1692
26	James Madison	1680
27	San Diego	1678
28	Robert Morris	1660
29	Howard	1649
30	St. Mary`s	1643
31	Texas Southern	1641
32	Northern Arizona	1635
33	Princeton	1635
34	SC State	1635
35	Georgetown	1628
36	Lehigh	1623
37	Montana State	1622
38	Florida Atlantic	1620
39	UTC	1613
40	UA	1607
41	TennesseeMartin	1602
42	Yale University	1601
43	Grambling State	1599
44	MVSU	1583
45	Marist College	1577
46	Delaware State	1566
47	Coastal Carolina	1565
48	ASU	1558
49	Murray State	1548
50	ETSU	1532
51	Florida A&M	1523
52	Austin Peay	1517
53	Harvard	1510
54	Norfolk State	1502
55	Samford	1500
56	Weber State	1496
57	Missouri State	1490
58	SFA	1478
59	SIU	1472
60	BethuneCookman	1470
61	Iona College	1470
62	FIU	1463
63	Illinois State	1454
64	McNeese State	1452
65	Alabama State	1440
66	Wagner College	1436
67	Delaware	1434
68	Pennsylvania	1431
69	Cornell	1428
70	Wofford College	1424
71	Dartmouth	1419
72	Valparaiso	1408
73	Siena College	1408
74	Prairie View	1404
75	Nicholls State	1402
76	Dayton	1402
77	Davidson College	1394
78	GardnerWebb	1394
79	Southern Utah	1392
80	SLU	1387
81	Savannah State	1387
82	Rhode Island	1385
83	The Citadel	1381
84	CCSU	1381
85	California State	1380
86	New Hampshire	1364
87	Morehead State	1364
88	Elon University	1358
89	EWU	1356
90	Lafayette	1355
91	St. Peter`s	1345
92	Butler	1332
93	Indiana State	1332
94	Richmond	1331
95	NC A&T	1329
96	Furman	1328
97	CSU	1313
98	Jackson State	1309
99	William & Mary	1304
100	NWSU	1297
101	Western Kentucky	1289
102	Monmouth	1277
103	Hofstra	1264
104	Tennessee State	1259
105	Towson	1241
106	Colgate	1234
107	Fordham	1233
108	Brown University	1232
109	La Salle	1229
110	SU	1229
111	Stony Brook	1228
112	VMI	1221
113	Alcorn State	1206
114	Western Illinois	1192
115	Bucknell	1177
116	Georgia Southern	1162
117	Idaho State	1158
118	Hampton	1123
119	Western Carolina	1112
120	St. Francis	1061

Outstanding work Naskin. How long before you think you have enough data points for these to normalize? By the end of season 3?

Bell Curve of current ELO ratings.

Posted by jtd79 on 5/11/2016 3:32:00 PM (view original):
Outstanding work Naskin. How long before you think you have enough data points for these to normalize? By the end of season 3?

I'm not exactly sure. I think it's already getting closer. I would imagine some of the top teams will end up around 2200 or so, and some of the worst teams around 800 or so. With the max at 1960 (Northeastern) and lowest at 1061 (St Francis), ELO predicts St Francis would have a 0.5% chance of winning, which I think is too high. Even at 2200/800 it's at .03% chance, but at least that's getting closer to the actual chances they probably have. We could potentially see a team get up to 2400ish territory, or if reigny joins again we may see some 500-600 ELOs :)

It's hard for me to totally predict because all my other sources have bell curves have things that mess with the curves. For instance, if you look at a bell curve of chess players that have played in the last week, it tends to skew higher than 1500, because generally better players play more often (or *are* better because they play more often). The NFL ELOs on fivethirtyeight.com probably never really reach equilibrium, because each season the values regress 1/3 back to the mean (they do this because NFL rosters change so drastically year to year). I tried to avoid doing that with my rating system; if a team truly regresses from one year to the next, you should see that reflected in their ELO once they start having losses.

By the way, I already think the ratings are probably more accurate than WIS rankings.

Take a team like Delaware State for example. Rated #18 in WIS, since they're 5-0. But they've played a bunch of mid to bottom half teams, with 2 of those games going to OT (one of them was 7 OTs!!!!!!! This broke my macro--I only had it ready to handle 4 OTs :) ).

ELO ratings has them ranked at #46. I think that's about right.

Posted by naskin on 5/11/2016 4:13:00 PM (view original):
By the way, I already think the ratings are probably more accurate than WIS rankings.

Take a team like Delaware State for example. Rated #18 in WIS, since they're 5-0. But they've played a bunch of mid to bottom half teams, with 2 of those games going to OT (one of them was 7 OTs!!!!!!! This broke my macro--I only had it ready to handle 4 OTs :) ).

ELO ratings has them ranked at #46. I think that's about right.

Sounds like the real life Iowa team lol

After week 6:

1	Northeastern	1962
2	Eastern Kentucky	1959
3	Sacred Heart	1932
4	Holy Cross	1924
5	Columbia	1921
6	Eastern Illinois	1902
7	Drake University	1900
8	Portland State	1877
9	SHSU	1856
10	Liberty	1849
11	Tennessee Tech	1846
12	JSU	1844
13	Villanova	1805
14	Youngstown State	1792
15	Cal Poly	1772
16	Maine	1758
17	Morgan State	1747
18	Alabama A&M	1746
19	Albany	1744
20	Massachusetts	1741
21	Jacksonville	1736
22	Texas State	1730
23	SMSU	1724
24	Northern Iowa	1709
25	Duquesne	1701
26	Howard	1683
27	Robert Morris	1683
28	San Diego	1666
29	James Madison	1660
30	Georgetown	1653
31	Princeton	1652
32	Texas Southern	1651
33	Montana State	1650
34	SC State	1646
35	UA	1645
36	Florida Atlantic	1639
37	Marist College	1623
38	St. Mary`s	1623
39	Northern Arizona	1620
40	Lehigh	1600
41	Yale University	1588
42	Coastal Carolina	1587
43	TennesseeMartin	1582
44	ASU	1580
45	Grambling State	1568
46	Florida A&M	1548
47	Austin Peay	1548
48	MVSU	1544
49	ETSU	1543
50	UTC	1538
51	Murray State	1535
52	Delaware State	1532
53	Harvard	1526
54	Norfolk State	1513
55	Missouri State	1500
56	SFA	1499
57	McNeese State	1496
58	FIU	1494
59	Alabama State	1475
60	Weber State	1468
61	SIU	1463
62	Samford	1454
63	BethuneCookman	1445
64	Illinois State	1436
65	Cornell	1422
66	Iona College	1417
67	Dayton	1415
68	Davidson College	1412
69	Wagner College	1411
70	The Citadel	1408
71	Southern Utah	1408
72	CCSU	1404
73	Furman	1403
74	Dartmouth	1402
75	Lafayette	1397
76	Siena College	1397
77	Pennsylvania	1387
78	GardnerWebb	1386
79	Wofford College	1381
80	Savannah State	1377
81	Valparaiso	1377
82	Nicholls State	1375
83	Prairie View	1369
84	Rhode Island	1366
85	California State	1359
86	Morehead State	1359
87	New Hampshire	1357
88	Hofstra	1352
89	Delaware	1346
90	EWU	1344
91	Elon University	1337
92	St. Peter`s	1335
93	Richmond	1323
94	NWSU	1313
95	Tennessee State	1311
96	Butler	1310
97	SLU	1307
98	La Salle	1306
99	William & Mary	1302
100	Indiana State	1301
101	CSU	1300
102	Jackson State	1300
103	SU	1290
104	Colgate	1278
105	Western Kentucky	1274
106	Western Illinois	1272
107	Bucknell	1257
108	NC A&T	1253
109	Towson	1239
110	Monmouth	1235
111	Fordham	1216
112	Stony Brook	1205
113	VMI	1204
114	Idaho State	1155
115	Brown University	1152
116	Georgia Southern	1150
117	Alcorn State	1145
118	Hampton	1113
119	Western Carolina	1096
120	St. Francis	1059

Im guessing margin of victory plays pretty heavy into this?

It plays a pretty strong role, although it has diminishing returns. I copied the formula from fivethirtyeight.com for NFL elo ratings they do. Winning by 80 gives you about 5x the movement of winning by 3 points. But typically if a team wins by 80, their ELOs are so far apart it barely moves anyways.

For instance, Albany (1741) won by 77 points vs St Francis (1061) this week. But because their ELOs are so far apart, even with the MOV factored in, Albany only gained about 2.1 ELO points. Compare that to Maine (1737) beating James Madison (1680) by only 6 points; Maine gained ~21 points.

Margin of victory plays a role, but ELO vs ELO plays a much bigger role.

Got it. Was trying to figure out why some teams were moving more then other and that clears it up some.

Thank you for putting this together.. its really good stuff that adds another element to Wilkinson.

After week 7:

1	Northeastern	1975
2	Eastern Kentucky	1968
3	Sacred Heart	1937
4	Holy Cross	1932
5	Columbia	1923
6	Drake University	1903
7	SHSU	1889
8	Eastern Illinois	1873
9	JSU	1873
10	Tennessee Tech	1860
11	Liberty	1853
12	Portland State	1844
13	Villanova	1826
14	Youngstown State	1799
15	Maine	1767
16	Texas State	1761
17	Albany	1757
18	Morgan State	1754
19	Alabama A&M	1753
20	Massachusetts	1751
21	Cal Poly	1741
22	Jacksonville	1740
23	SMSU	1737
24	Duquesne	1726
25	Northern Iowa	1722
26	Howard	1708
27	San Diego	1701
28	Robert Morris	1690
29	Montana State	1685
30	UA	1662
31	Princeton	1658
32	Northern Arizona	1648
33	James Madison	1646
34	Georgetown	1640
35	Marist College	1637
36	SC State	1621
37	ASU	1619
38	Florida Atlantic	1618
39	Coastal Carolina	1613
40	Texas Southern	1610
41	Lehigh	1607
42	Yale University	1604
43	St. Mary`s	1587
44	MVSU	1585
45	TennesseeMartin	1573
46	Norfolk State	1547
47	Delaware State	1535
48	FIU	1534
49	Florida A&M	1523
50	Alabama State	1522
51	Grambling State	1521
52	Murray State	1521
53	SFA	1519
54	Harvard	1519
55	Austin Peay	1514
56	ETSU	1504
57	Cornell	1467
58	UTC	1466
59	The Citadel	1460
60	SIU	1450
61	CCSU	1447
62	McNeese State	1445
63	Furman	1443
64	Southern Utah	1442
65	Weber State	1440
66	Missouri State	1425
67	Valparaiso	1414
68	Wofford College	1413
69	BethuneCookman	1411
70	Savannah State	1408
71	Morehead State	1406
72	Samford	1406
73	Iona College	1404
74	Richmond	1399
75	Illinois State	1396
76	Prairie View	1394
77	Lafayette	1393
78	Dayton	1388
79	Nicholls State	1385
80	St. Peter`s	1383
81	Indiana State	1377
82	Davidson College	1375
83	California State	1373
84	GardnerWebb	1369
85	Wagner College	1367
86	William & Mary	1357
87	Dartmouth	1357
88	New Hampshire	1347
89	Siena College	1338
90	Delaware	1337
91	Pennsylvania	1333
92	EWU	1323
93	NC A&T	1311
94	SLU	1301
95	La Salle	1299
96	Elon University	1297
97	Tennessee State	1297
98	CSU	1297
99	Hofstra	1296
100	Jackson State	1296
101	Rhode Island	1290
102	SU	1283
103	NWSU	1281
104	Fordham	1271
105	Butler	1263
106	Colgate	1261
107	Bucknell	1255
108	Stony Brook	1245
109	Western Kentucky	1243
110	Western Illinois	1238
111	Towson	1232
112	Monmouth	1227
113	Georgia Southern	1222
114	VMI	1199
115	Brown University	1146
116	Idaho State	1141
117	Alcorn State	1121
118	Hampton	1109
119	Western Carolina	1087
120	St. Francis	1018

Thanks for doing this. It feels like we are climbing a ladder.

Posted by awags on 5/13/2016 4:32:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for doing this. It feels like we are climbing a ladder.

Yeah, well you just stepped on my head.