Posted by joshkvt on 5/13/2016 3:26:00 PM (view original):
It would seem absurd to put the effort into programming minor leagues, coaching, spring training, training, etc., and then just have everyone develop the same regardless. And it's certainly not true that most players hit their projections. Not even close.
What you see as projections are fuzzy. You don't know what the players true projections are. So you can't say with 100% confidence that most players don't hit their projections, because you have no way of knowing what their true maximum projections really are.
It's easy to see in some cases, if a player has been crippled by injuries due to misuse or a poor medical/training budget, or if they have been allowed to languish in the minors and not developed properly. But if everything is done "right", they likely will hit their true projections. It just might not be the projections you see and think they should hit.