Posted by hockey1984 on 5/15/2016 3:49:00 PM (view original):
Molitor is going to gain 24 points VsR at 22 years old? I still feel like those advance numbers are off. Will be interesting to see what his progression is.

In Riley I have $20 million in HS. I think someone hit the nail on the head when they said $20 million will get you 80% correct projections. In 2 years I have just picked a guy in the first round from the other 20%. Oh well.

Hmm. Good point. Well, we'll see.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/15/2016 3:08:00 PM (view original):
As more people decide to punt the draft, more people will benefit from the draft. Less competition, better results.

I, for one, have no problem with the way things are currently. I've missed on a few but, by and large, I'm still getting quality from the draft. Sometimes, my 2nd rounder is better than my supplemental pick but, really, isn't that what we asked for?

Agree.

1) Major league prospects aren't going undrafted. So the net benefit from the draft to a world under fuzzy projections is, by definition, the same as it was under less fuzzy projections.
2) Projections, when inaccurate, are WAY more likely to be inaccurate high than low.

So what's happening under the new approach is that you're seeing more inaccurate, and therefore higher, projections on all draftees, but they're the same old draftees. So you feel like you're getting screwed-- but you're not. You're just suffering from falsely elevate expectations.

In response to this, you can either lower your expectations, or bail on the draft. If you bail on the draft, everyone who doesn't will start kicking your *** in the draft, because you'll see fewer players.

There are some real reasons to bail on the draft, or internationals. But those reasons haven't changed with the new fuzzy projections.

Checked Coopertown and Moonlight Graham.

Average scouting for the draft has remained constant in Coop and is now higher in MG over the last 4 seasons. People may be punting the draft but it's certainly not evident in the two worlds I commish.

So whether it is college or HS and with top 10 pick, what should be budgeted if you want to plan on getting one very good prospect and maybe 2-3 decent prospects. Could you get away with 11-12 mil or would 15-17 be more in line or best to go all the way up to 20?

It seems like 0 or $20 is the only way to go. Anything else is a total crapshoot. For my two teams I'm picking $20 for one type of scouting (COLL or HS) and putting 0 for the other and INT. I never liked INT much anyways.

No and no. I wouldn't go lower than 16, 20 if at all possible. I'd cut something else out of the budget first.

I'm having pretty good luck with 16m but would go higher if my budget allowed it.

Mike, do you do IFA as well?

If I can put 12m into it, I do. With IFA, you can somewhat judge what you're seeing/not seeing by the bidding process. If a player's price is skyrocketing, there's a good chance that someone with higher scouting is causing it. With 12m, you can get an idea and the let the process work for you.

I scored a big IFA in Riley recently using just that process, with only 9 mil in IFA scouting. (I would have budgeted more but I was only at 5 mil last season.) At 9 mil I was just hoping to find a player worth it. As it happened, two came out at the same time but I only saw one of them. I knew my projections were next to useless, but I followed the bidding upward and eventually figured the guy must really be worth it if someone else was going big.

It should be said that it can also be a case of the blind leading the blind. Perhaps me(with my 12m) and damag(with his 9m) see a guy. As do several owners with 20m. He's OK but not a stud. 20m guy says "11m is my max". Me, damag and 20m start bidding. 20m drops out at 11m. Me/damag keep going and one of us pays 19m for an 11m value. It's a risk not a guarantee.

Oh for sure. I was completely aware of that. I also wonder if there are owners who bluff bid out there, drive up turds' prices on purpose. But at some point you have to decide if you're all in or not.

I just made the comment so no one would think "I can just budget 8m and watch the bidding. If it goes up, I'm all in."

It's a gamble. With 12m I get a rough idea. Less than that, I feel like I'm flying blind.