Posted by taniajane on 5/18/2016 7:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/18/2016 7:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dadbod on 5/18/2016 6:19:00 AM (view original):
Have you ever seen a basketball game where a team stands in the paint on defense? I haven't.

I'm not sure I've seen a team take 0 legit 3 pointers in real life (not including end of half or end of game full/half court shot). But that's pretty common in HD. Hence why you CAN'T have the entire team stand in the paint in real life.

yep.........I Assume all commenting on the -5 have at least attempted it. NO it doesnt stop post scoring and it DOES NOT increase perimeter scoring. It simply created more fouls. TRUE if your team is more Athletic and has a Great Interior defense it will slow down the post scoring and have less fouls, but a setting of 0 will do the same with that superior advantage.
It is a useless setting that people game for advantage. If it was real life and a team had no perimeter threat...darn right their opponents would be packing the paint and would see a great amount of offensive fouls.


But this is not real life

The -5 absolutely decreases interior FG% and increases perimeter FG%. It isn't an absolute but it does have an effect.

To say it is useless is beyond hyperbole and just flat out incorrect. It probably isn't as effective as you think it should be but to completely dismiss it is silly.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/18/2016 8:47:00 AM (view original):

Posted by taniajane on 5/18/2016 7:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/18/2016 7:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dadbod on 5/18/2016 6:19:00 AM (view original):
Have you ever seen a basketball game where a team stands in the paint on defense? I haven't.

I'm not sure I've seen a team take 0 legit 3 pointers in real life (not including end of half or end of game full/half court shot). But that's pretty common in HD. Hence why you CAN'T have the entire team stand in the paint in real life.

yep.........I Assume all commenting on the -5 have at least attempted it. NO it doesnt stop post scoring and it DOES NOT increase perimeter scoring. It simply created more fouls. TRUE if your team is more Athletic and has a Great Interior defense it will slow down the post scoring and have less fouls, but a setting of 0 will do the same with that superior advantage.
It is a useless setting that people game for advantage. If it was real life and a team had no perimeter threat...darn right their opponents would be packing the paint and would see a great amount of offensive fouls.


But this is not real life

The -5 absolutely decreases interior FG% and increases perimeter FG%. It isn't an absolute but it does have an effect.

To say it is useless is beyond hyperbole and just flat out incorrect. It probably isn't as effective as you think it should be but to completely dismiss it is silly.

Do you think it depends on the defense too? Since fouling is less likely in a 2-3 zone vs press then wouldn't it make more sense to risk the extra fouls in the 2-3 by going to the -5?

Yeah, the defense has a lot to do with foul rate. I play -5 with both zones reasonably frequently. I don't do it with man or press as much any more.

There are a lot of factors at play for fouling:

Type of defense
Setting (O/D)
ATH/DEF Rating of the defender
Ratings for the offense

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/18/2016 9:02:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, the defense has a lot to do with foul rate. I play -5 with both zones reasonably frequently. I don't do it with man or press as much any more.

There are a lot of factors at play for fouling:

Type of defense
Setting (O/D)
ATH/DEF Rating of the defender
Ratings for the offense

I agree...and would add in the player distribution as well....if teams pound the paint they will have higher distribution than the perimeter players...again though I find -5 to be totally unrealistic and useless for what it says it will do

Posted by taniajane on 5/18/2016 9:47:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/18/2016 9:02:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, the defense has a lot to do with foul rate. I play -5 with both zones reasonably frequently. I don't do it with man or press as much any more.

There are a lot of factors at play for fouling:

Type of defense
Setting (O/D)
ATH/DEF Rating of the defender
Ratings for the offense

I agree...and would add in the player distribution as well....if teams pound the paint they will have higher distribution than the perimeter players...again though I find -5 to be totally unrealistic and useless for what it says it will do

How so .. as in "Take Away the Inside" ?

That ALSO depends on if your team has the ability to do that. If your ATH/Def/SPD is not as good as the inside shooter's Ath/SPD/PER, then they will be less effective but will not be shut down.

What it does is: 1) lower interior FG%, 2) increase perimeter FG%, 3) increase Def Rebounds, 4) increase Fouls on Def on interior shots. 5) Cause less interior shots 6) Cause more perimeter shots.

LeBron James is still going to take some inside shots, as are guys like Lamarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard, Carl Anthony Towns, Demarcus Cousins .. it does not matter how many people you put in the paint.

are you serious in bringing Lebron James and others?...I believe they have perimeter shooters and cant think of a game in the NBA or many in college that have teams taking Zero 3 point attempts since the line was introduced.

Gee if You have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD why even go to a situation that causes more fouls in this simulation? Sure you may Slightly lower the Interior FG % ( But not "Take away the inside") at the cost of fouls on your players that have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD . And there is NO defense against a Good Free Throwing Team,

Posted by Benis on 5/18/2016 7:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dadbod on 5/18/2016 6:19:00 AM (view original):
Have you ever seen a basketball game where a team stands in the paint on defense? I haven't.

I'm not sure I've seen a team take 0 legit 3 pointers in real life (not including end of half or end of game full/half court shot). But that's pretty common in HD. Hence why you CAN'T have the entire team stand in the paint in real life.

it is really "pretty common" in HD? i thought the FT-only strategy was still a fairly rarely used strategy, although the teams that use it do get more attention than your average team. so, is this still just like, a few teams per division thing? or is it really like 10-20% of the teams are now doing this?

Zero? Very few (probably only myers).

Less than 50 3FGA? There's probably 5 or 6 teams in D3 that do that in each world.

Less than 10% of their total shots? Number probably triples.

I was probably speaking in hyperbole with the 0 legit 3 pointers comment. I was probably thinking in the range of attempting only a couple 3 pointers per game which would still be incredibly abnormal in real life. I decided to take a look at two of my teams that I have data for to see how often I shoot 3s. Chestnut runs Motion while Ramapo runs Flex. The 1% is basically zero since those 3s were of the end of half/game variety. Or desperation. So, I definitely do the 'pound it inside and get to the line strategy' even though I don't run FB.

Finally, I just did a quick look at the humans in my conference and compiled their 3pt rate

Chestnut	FGA	3PT	3pt/FGA
79	1704	441	26%
80	1569	415	26%
81	1253	119	9%
82	1335	65	5%
83	1483	153	10%
84	1340	237	18%
85	1505	22	1%
86	1053	45	4%

Ramapo	FGA	3PT	3PT/FGA
81	1309	149	11%
82	1642	75	5%
83	2022	125	6%
84	1746	85	5%
85	1606	18	1%

	FGA	3PT	%
Goucher	942	265	28%
Gallaudet	1018	47	5%
Marymount	1193	177	15%
St Marys	1011	72	7%
Chestnut	1053	45	4%
Stevenson	1149	333	29%

Posted by taniajane on 5/18/2016 12:16:00 PM (view original):
are you serious in bringing Lebron James and others?...I believe they have perimeter shooters and cant think of a game in the NBA or many in college that have teams taking Zero 3 point attempts since the line was introduced.

Gee if You have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD why even go to a situation that causes more fouls in this simulation? Sure you may Slightly lower the Interior FG % ( But not "Take away the inside") at the cost of fouls on your players that have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD . And there is NO defense against a Good Free Throwing Team,

Not shooting 3 point shots does not mean not taking shots outside the paint. If a team has a player with PER who is set to -2, just because they are not shooting 3's does not mean they are not shooting mid range jumpers outside the paint.

Some guys with only LP are shooting in the paint. There was a time that -5 was way too powerful. Now it is, IMHO,. about right.

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/18/2016 1:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/18/2016 7:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dadbod on 5/18/2016 6:19:00 AM (view original):
Have you ever seen a basketball game where a team stands in the paint on defense? I haven't.

I'm not sure I've seen a team take 0 legit 3 pointers in real life (not including end of half or end of game full/half court shot). But that's pretty common in HD. Hence why you CAN'T have the entire team stand in the paint in real life.

it is really "pretty common" in HD? i thought the FT-only strategy was still a fairly rarely used strategy, although the teams that use it do get more attention than your average team. so, is this still just like, a few teams per division thing? or is it really like 10-20% of the teams are now doing this?

I don't know how "common" it is but here's a comparison between HD and the NCAA regarding percentage of shots taken from 3 for the past season. The HD data is from Knight since it's recently completed and shows a full season of data. The NCAA data is from NCAA.com (for D2 and D3) and sports-reference.com (for D1):

HD Knight D1:
Average % of shots from 3 = 32.8%

Highest Team % = 65.9% (Kansas St)
Lowest Team % = 3.5% (Michigan St)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 47 of 324 (14.5%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 22 of 324 (6.8%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 11 of 324 (3.4%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 8 of 324 (2.5%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 2 of 324 (0.6%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 2 of 324 (0.6%)

NCAA D1:
Average % of shots from 3 = 35.3%

Highest Team % = 52.7% (Wyoming)
Lowest Team % = 23.7% (Old Dominion)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 4 of 351 (1.1%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 0 of 351 (0.0%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 4 of 351 (1.1%)

HD Knight D2:
Average % of shots from 3 = 32.3%

Highest Team % = 57.4% (N. Kentucky)
Lowest Team % = 0.7% (St. Rose)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 38 of 276 (13.8%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 24 of 276 (8.7%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 13 of 276 (4.7%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 6 of 276 (2.2%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 2 of 276 (0.7%)

?# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 3 of 276 (1.1%)

NCAA D2:
Average % of shots from 3 = 35.7%

Highest Team % = 52.9% (Adelphi)
Lowest Team % = 19.5% (U of the Sciences)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 6 of 313 (1.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 1 of 313 (0.3%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 3 of 313 (1.0%)

HD Knight D3:
Average % of shots from 3 = 31.7%

Highest Team % = 56.8% (SUNY Geneseo)
Lowest Team % = 0.6% (Dickinson)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 67 of 384 (17.4%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 42 of 384 (10.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 24 of 384 (6.3%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 16 of 384 (4.2%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 5 of 384 (1.3%)

?# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 5 of 384 (1.3%)

NCAA D3:
Average % of shots from 3 = 34.8%

Highest Team % = 64.4% (Grinnell)
Lowest Team % = 19.4% (Fitchburg St)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 18 of 419 (4.3%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 1 of 419 (0.2%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 3 of 419 (0.7%)
# of Teams shooting more than 60% of shots from 3 = 1 of 419 (0.2%)

Posted by hughesjr on 5/18/2016 10:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by taniajane on 5/18/2016 12:16:00 PM (view original):
are you serious in bringing Lebron James and others?...I believe they have perimeter shooters and cant think of a game in the NBA or many in college that have teams taking Zero 3 point attempts since the line was introduced.

Gee if You have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD why even go to a situation that causes more fouls in this simulation? Sure you may Slightly lower the Interior FG % ( But not "Take away the inside") at the cost of fouls on your players that have an advantage in ATH-DEF-SPD . And there is NO defense against a Good Free Throwing Team,

Not shooting 3 point shots does not mean not taking shots outside the paint. If a team has a player with PER who is set to -2, just because they are not shooting 3's does not mean they are not shooting mid range jumpers outside the paint.

Some guys with only LP are shooting in the paint. There was a time that -5 was way too powerful. Now it is, IMHO,. about right.

Thats true Hugh...but not of teams that are built with High Ath-LP-FT..and a team low of PER. And those are the teams logically one would attack with a -5 defense. However, as you and others pointed out and my experience with it, it only leads to excessive defensive fouls and a very small reduction in FG % even though they would shooting outside the paint where logically LP should not be a need compared to PER..

In my experience, the -5 setting is a waste and does not accomplish what it claims it should. I accept that as part of this game.

Nice data Possum. I think the data would be even more telling if you just compared it to humans in Knight instead of all teams. Since we know that SIMs will jack up 3s, they're obviously not going to be one of the teams with less than 25% of total shots being 3 pointers.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/18/2016 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Zero? Very few (probably only myers).

Less than 50 3FGA? There's probably 5 or 6 teams in D3 that do that in each world.

Less than 10% of their total shots? Number probably triples.

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 67 of 384 (17.4%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 42 of 384 (10.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 24 of 384 (6.3%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 16 of 384 (4.2%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 5 of 384 (1.3%)

Not for nothing, but I nailed it!

Posted by Benis on 5/19/2016 6:45:00 AM (view original):
Nice data Possum. I think the data would be even more telling if you just compared it to humans in Knight instead of all teams. Since we know that SIMs will jack up 3s, they're obviously not going to be one of the teams with less than 25% of total shots being 3 pointers.

HD Knight D1 Human (123 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 27.7%
Standard Deviation = 9.5%

Highest Team % = 65.9% (Kansas St)
Lowest Team % = 3.5% (Michigan St)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 47 of 123 (38.2%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 22 of 123 (17.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 11 of 123 (8.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 8 of 123 (6.5%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 2 of 123 (1.6%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 2 of 123 (1.6%)


HD Knight D1 SIM (201 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 36.1%
Standard Deviation = 3.9%

Highest Team % = 46.8% (Arkansas St)
Lowest Team % = 25.9% (Canisius)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 0 of 201 (0.0%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 0 of 201 (0.0%)

HD Knight D2 Human (105 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 28.5%
Standard Deviation = 11.1%

Highest Team % = 57.4% (N.Kentucky)
Lowest Team % = 0.7% (St. Rose)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 35 of 105 (33.3%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 24 of 105 (22.9%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 13 of 105 (12.4%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 6 of 105 (5.7%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 2 of 105 (1.9%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 3 of 105 (2.9%)


HD Knight D2 SIM (171 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 34.8%
Standard Deviation = 4.9%

Highest Team % = 46.5% (Tampa)
Lowest Team % = 23.3% (S. Connecticut St)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 3 of 171 (1.8%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 0 of 171 (0.0%)

HD Knight D3 Human (114 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 25.8%
Standard Deviation = 13.1%

Highest Team % = 56.9% (SUNY Geneseo)
Lowest Team % = 0.6% (Dickinson)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 59 of 114 (51.8%)
# of Teams shooting less than 20% of shots from 3 = 42 of 114 (36.8%)
# of Teams shooting less than 15% of shots from 3 = 24 of 114 (21.1%)
# of Teams shooting less than 10% of shots from 3 = 16 of 114 (14.0%)
# of Teams shooting less than 5% of shots from 3 = 5 of 114 (4.4%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 4 of 171 (3.5%)


HD Knight D1 SIM (270 Teams):
Average % of shots from 3 = 34.4%
Standard Deviation = 5.3%

Highest Team % = 51.1% (Norwich)
Lowest Team % = 20.6% (Augsburg)

# of Teams shooting less than 25% of shots from 3 = 8 of 270 (3.0%)

# of Teams shooting more than 50% of shots from 3 = 0 of 270 (0.0%)