I'm sure I'm just imagining that the SIMs play much better at the end of the year. Overall improvement was 39 points per player for our team. Overall improvement for the other team was 23 points per player. So how did they get that much better during the season? If it isn't practice playing efficiency, then what is it?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13194738

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13217187

you changed your gameplan and just generally variability game to game.

sims are horrible at practice plans...

Posted by the0nlyis on 5/30/2016 12:29:00 AM (view original):
you changed your gameplan and just generally variability game to game.

sims are horrible at practice plans...

You're probably right on the practice plan, I thought maybe there was some logical reason without insinuating that there was something fishy going on.

Doesn't explain the 45 point win and then the same team beats me by 10. Even though the game plan changed a little.

I'm about one step away from retiring or taking a long break from the game. Tired of being at a low level D-1 and not being able to get a decent Big 6 team. Kind of feel with what I've accomplished with some of these teams, I deserve a much better job. You get a low level Big 6 job, you're stuck, can't get great recruits, and then can't beat the better teams, and prestige stays down.

Take a low level D-1 job, have a lot of success and still can't go too far up the ladder.

Doesn't explain the 45 point win and then the same team beats me by 10. Even though the game plan changed a little.

Changed gameplan, 45 point win was probably on the very rare occurances so it was way outside the normal range. And I still believe CT upsets happen at a higher rate.(just this season alone in crum D3 had 3 top 5 ranked teams including number 1, 3, and 5 lose in their 1st CT games(all had byes)

Dont' worry the update will fix all the problems, you'll enjoy being at a non major more with this update even though it still takes the same to get to a big 6 job AND you get an extra season at your new job(when you finally get one) where you don't even get to bring in your own players because you should "wet your feet". oh and once you finally are able to recruit don't take any walkons even though you are a C- big 6 job because we will punish you and give you half the attention points for those spots.

On a serious note whats holding you back is the PI bids(while great for big 6 schools, I think they are extremely looked down upon at mid/non majors) and you're scheduling is really not great. you schedule a lot of big 6 games against above teams and games against big 6 teams that suck, so you aren't really helping your rpi ebcause their records don't look good so while it might be a "tough" schedule in terms of talent it doesn't translate and you end up not making the NT

While I don't really think the SIMAI gets rocket boosters during CT time I was about to believe it while reading the play by play for a 1st round game the other day.

First I beat the SIM by 30. https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13155669

Then I beat the SIM by 47. https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13204881

Then the very next game I played the SIM again and I was losing by 13pts with 14 min to go. Was about to lose to mind. Ended up winning by only 10. https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13212246

This was another conference final vs a SIM team this season, same world, another division. Just happened to accidentally run into this game.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=13228731

02:34	Nile Morrow drills a 3pt attempt from the right corner	64-49
02:26		64-52	Claude Shea connects on the 3pt jumper from the left wing
02:15	Dikembe Alleruzzo misses long on a 3pt jumper from the left wing	64-52
02:13		64-52	The rebound goes to Bruce White
02:02		64-52	Bruce White hits the front of the rim on the shot in the lane
02:00		64-52	James Walker grabs the offensive rebound
01:44		64-52	Claude Shea hits the front of the rim on the jumper from the left side but he's hacked by Dikembe Alleruzzo - foul #1 on Dikembe Alleruzzo, team foul #9
01:44	Jonathan Clark (PF), James Johnson (C) Donald Lanphear, James Dickinson	64-52
01:44		64-53	Claude Shea makes the 1st free throw
01:44		64-54	Claude Shea makes the 2nd free throw
01:29	Bruce White is called for the reach on Matthew Reisinger - foul #2 on Bruce White, team foul #10	64-54
01:29	Matthew Reisinger makes the 1st free throw	65-54
01:29	Matthew Reisinger makes the 2nd free throw	66-54
01:13		66-56	Bruce White hits a shot from the baseline
00:48	Matthew Reisinger is called for a charge - foul #1 on Matthew Reisinger, team foul #10	66-56
	E. Kentucky is playing a motion offense (slowdown) and a man to man (0)		Austin Peay is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and a man to man (0)
00:40		66-59	Thad Bowers hits a 3pt attempt from straight away on a great pass from Claude Shea
00:40	E. Kentucky calls a full timeout (2 :30 3 full remaining)	66-59
00:40	Tommy Mueller (PG), Wesley Spiller (SG), Corey Epp (SF), Donald Lanphear (PF) Dikembe Alleruzzo, Matthew Reisinger, Nile Morrow, Jonathan Clark	66-59	Steve Robertson (PG), Kenneth Bostwick (SG), Eugene Terrell (SF), Steve Waller (PF), Alex Krueger (C) Claude Shea, Thad Bowers, Kevin Greer, Bruce White, James Walker
	E. Kentucky is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (0)		Austin Peay is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and intentionally fouling (0)
00:38	Donald Lanphear is hacked by Steve Robertson in the backcourt - foul #2 on Steve Robertson, team foul #11	66-59
00:38	Donald Lanphear makes the 1st free throw	67-59
00:38	Donald Lanphear makes the 2nd free throw	68-59
	E. Kentucky is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and intentionally fouling (0)
00:31		68-62	Kenneth Bostwick connects on the 3 pointer from the right wing on a nice dish by Steve Robertson
00:30	Steve Robertson is called for the reach on Donald Lanphear in the backcourt - foul #3 on Steve Robertson, team foul #12	68-62
00:30	Dikembe Alleruzzo (PG) Tommy Mueller	68-62
00:30	Donald Lanphear makes the 1st free throw	69-62
00:30	Donald Lanphear makes the 2nd free throw	70-62
00:25		70-65	Steve Robertson connects on the 3 pointer from the left corner
00:22	Kenneth Bostwick is called for the reach on Wesley Spiller in the backcourt - foul #2 on Kenneth Bostwick, team foul #13	70-65
00:22	Matthew Reisinger (SG) James Johnson	70-65
00:22	Wesley Spiller misses the 1st free throw	70-65
00:22	Wesley Spiller makes the 2nd free throw	71-65
00:16		71-68	Steve Robertson hits a 3 from the right wing on a great pass from Kenneth Bostwick
00:16	E. Kentucky calls a full timeout (2 :30 2 full remaining)	71-68
00:16	James Johnson (C) Wesley Spiller	71-68
00:15	Dikembe Alleruzzo is hacked by Steve Robertson in the backcourt - foul #4 on Steve Robertson, team foul #14	71-68
00:15	Dikembe Alleruzzo makes the 1st free throw	72-68
00:15	Dikembe Alleruzzo makes the 2nd free throw	73-68
00:09		73-71	Kenneth Bostwick knocks in the 3pt jumper from straight away on a nice dish by Eugene Terrell
00:08	Dikembe Alleruzzo is hacked by Steve Robertson in the backcourt - foul #5 on Steve Robertson, team foul #15	73-71
00:08	Wesley Spiller (SG) Matthew Reisinger	73-71	Claude Shea (PG) Steve Robertson
00:08	Dikembe Alleruzzo makes the 1st free throw	74-71
00:08	Dikembe Alleruzzo misses the 2nd free throw	74-71
00:08		74-71	The rebound goes to Alex Krueger
00:08		74-71	Austin Peay calls a :30 timeout (1 :30 4 full remaining)
	E. Kentucky is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a triangle offense and intentionally fouling (0)
00:01		74-74	Claude Shea scores on a 3 pointer from the left wing
	E. Kentucky is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a triangle offense and a man to man (0)
00:00	Wesley Spiller clanks a fullcourt shot	74-74
OT 1 Summary
Time	E. Kentucky	Score	Austin Peay
	PG Tommy Mueller(fresh) 6 ast. 3 pf. SG Wesley Spiller(fresh) 14 pts. 1 ast. 3 pf. SF Corey Epp(fresh) 5 pts. 1 ast. PF Donald Lanphear(fresh) 15 pts. 7 reb. 2 blk. C James Johnson(fresh) 7 pts. 3 reb. 4 pf.		PG Claude Shea(fresh) 8 pts. 3 ast. SG Kenneth Bostwick(fresh) 22 pts. 4 ast. 2 stl. SF Eugene Terrell(fresh) 2 pts. 7 reb. PF Steve Waller(fresh) 5 pts. 5 reb. 4 pf. C Alex Krueger(fresh) 13 pts. 9 reb. 2 blk.
05:00		74-74	Steve Waller wins the tip
	E. Kentucky is playing a motion offense and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a triangle offense and a man to man (0)
04:31		74-74	Eugene Terrell clanks a shot in the paint
04:30		74-76	Kenneth Bostwick tips it in
04:15	Wesley Spiller clanks a fadeaway from the right wing	74-76
04:14		74-76	The rebound goes to Steve Waller
04:08		74-78	Eugene Terrell scores on a floater near the basket on a nice dish by Kenneth Bostwick
03:41	James Johnson scores on a shot from the right block and he's hacked by Alex Krueger - foul #2 on Alex Krueger, team foul #16	76-78
03:41	James Johnson misses the free throw	76-78
03:41		76-78	Steve Waller snags the defensive board
03:34		76-78	The short jumper by Alex Krueger is denied by James Johnson
03:33	The rebound goes to Corey Epp	76-78
03:13	Donald Lanphear knocks in the fadeaway from the left block	78-78
03:07		78-78	Steve Waller clanks a 3 pointer from the left corner
03:06	James Johnson grabs the board	78-78
03:02	Wesley Spiller loses the dribble to Kenneth Bostwick	78-78
02:59		78-80	Kenneth Bostwick hits the finger roll
02:48	James Johnson misses badly on a jump hook from the right block	78-80
02:46		78-80	Alex Krueger pulls down the rebound
02:28		78-80	Claude Shea misses the 3pt jumper from the left corner
02:27	Wesley Spiller grabs the board	78-80
02:03	James Johnson is denied on a layup by Steve Waller	78-80
02:01	James Johnson tips it but misses	78-80
02:00		78-80	Kenneth Bostwick pulls down the rebound
01:44		78-80	Donald Lanphear picks off the pass by Kenneth Bostwick
01:34	James Johnson comes up short on the turnaround from close range	78-80
01:32		78-80	Steve Waller pulls down the rebound
01:09		78-83	Claude Shea hits a 3pt jumper from the right wing
00:49	Eugene Terrell is called for the reach on Wesley Spiller - foul #3 on Eugene Terrell, team foul #17	78-83
00:49	Wesley Spiller makes the 1st free throw	79-83
00:49	Wesley Spiller makes the 2nd free throw	80-83
	PG Tommy Mueller(fairly fresh) 6 ast. 3 pf. SG Wesley Spiller(fairly fresh) 16 pts. 1 ast. 3 pf. SF Corey Epp(fairly fresh) 5 pts. 1 ast. PF Donald Lanphear(fairly fresh) 17 pts. 7 reb. 2 blk. 2 stl. C James Johnson(fairly fresh) 9 pts. 5 reb. 4 pf.		PG Claude Shea(fairly fresh) 11 pts. 3 ast. SG Kenneth Bostwick(fairly fresh) 26 pts. 5 ast. 3 stl. SF Eugene Terrell(fairly fresh) 4 pts. 7 reb. 3 pf. PF Steve Waller(fairly fresh) 5 pts. 8 reb. 4 pf. C Alex Krueger(fairly fresh) 13 pts. 10 reb. 2 blk.
	E. Kentucky is playing a motion offense and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (0)
00:15		80-85	Kenneth Bostwick hits a floater from the left wing on a nice dish by Eugene Terrell
	E. Kentucky is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (0)
00:11	Kenneth Bostwick steals it from Corey Epp	80-85
	E. Kentucky is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and intentionally fouling (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (0)
00:10		80-85	Tommy Mueller is called for the reach on Eugene Terrell in the backcourt - foul #4 on Tommy Mueller, team foul #11
00:10		80-85	Kevin Greer (C) Alex Krueger
00:10		80-86	Eugene Terrell makes the 1st free throw
00:10		80-87	Eugene Terrell makes the 2nd free throw
00:07	Tommy Mueller's pass is off the mark and out of bounds in the backcourt	80-87
	E. Kentucky is playing a quick shot offense (quick shot) and a man to man (-2)		Austin Peay is playing a spread offense (hold ball) and a man to man (0)
00:00		80-87	Claude Shea runs out the clock

Sim Team goes 3-17 in the first 37 minutes of the game from 3, but then, while fatigued, proceeds to hit 7 consecutive three pointers against a man to man defense.

last 3 minutes increased 3 point settings.and human had switched to minus 2 for a majority of the 2nd half

Yeah, I saw that he played -2, but still I'm not a conspiracy theorist. Sometimes you get a hunch that something isn't right. Maybe I'm just crazy.

I've mentioned in a couple of my worlds that the Sim teams seem to have improved (in some cases dramatically) recently. I've had teams and seen other human coached teams that have lost games to Sim teams that they had no business losing to (and Dcy doesn't make a habit of losing to Sim teams). Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but I know what I've seen and what I've seen says that there has been a change made somewhere to how the Sim teams operate. Maybe they're recruiting better players, I don't know, but "something" is different (and I'm talking regular season games as well).

I'm aboard the theory that sim teams get hidden bumped per ratings and increased upset chances in the CT.

Anytime I try to run a team a all 0 like sims they never come close to the percentages that the sims do, it insane how well some of them shoot for terrible per ratings with like 2 guys in the 60's and they are making 8-25 on a regular basis which isn't great but for 2 guys with sub 65 spd/per/bh thats way better than they should be shooting

Posted by dcy0827 on 5/30/2016 3:04:00 PM (view original):
I've mentioned in a couple of my worlds that the Sim teams seem to have improved (in some cases dramatically) recently. I've had teams and seen other human coached teams that have lost games to Sim teams that they had no business losing to (and Dcy doesn't make a habit of losing to Sim teams). Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but I know what I've seen and what I've seen says that there has been a change made somewhere to how the Sim teams operate. Maybe they're recruiting better players, I don't know, but "something" is different (and I'm talking regular season games as well).

It's not just the SIM teams winning, especially if the teams are evenly or closely matched, I have no problem with that. It's the impossible comebacks late in the game, human coached teams sweeping the SIM teams by 10+ points during the regular season, only to have the human team lose to that same team by 10 points, usually about a 20 point swing. All sorts of strange things like that happening. It appears to happen mostly in the conference championship and with random teams.

Posted by thewizard17 on 5/30/2016 3:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dcy0827 on 5/30/2016 3:04:00 PM (view original):
I've mentioned in a couple of my worlds that the Sim teams seem to have improved (in some cases dramatically) recently. I've had teams and seen other human coached teams that have lost games to Sim teams that they had no business losing to (and Dcy doesn't make a habit of losing to Sim teams). Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but I know what I've seen and what I've seen says that there has been a change made somewhere to how the Sim teams operate. Maybe they're recruiting better players, I don't know, but "something" is different (and I'm talking regular season games as well).

It's not just the SIM teams winning, especially if the teams are evenly or closely matched, I have no problem with that. It's the impossible comebacks late in the game, human coached teams sweeping the SIM teams by 10+ points during the regular season, only to have the human team lose to that same team by 10 points, usually about a 20 point swing. All sorts of strange things like that happening. It appears to happen mostly in the conference championship and with random teams.

So here's some food for thought. While the engine that runs "Sim Matchup" is probably not perfectly identical to the one used in HD, it's probably pretty closely related and largely operates on the same principles. I like to think of the "Sim Matchup" engine as simulating games with both teams running at 0.

Having read this forum, and several others I've read on this subject over the last few years I decided to run a little test. So I ran the sim engine 45 times on a match between 2015-16 Horizon League competitors Northern Kentucky and Valparaiso. Valpo finished the real life season 30-7 winning the Horizon League regular season championship going 16-2 (their two losses were to Wright St.). Northern Kentucky finished 9-21 this past season ending conference play in 8th place at 5-13. Valpo won both regular season matchups (winning by 25 on the road and then by 12 at home).

For the sim matchup I ran the engine for 15 neutral court games and then gave each team 15 home games. The results:

Valparaiso won 36 of 45 games going 13-2 on neutral court, 13-2 on their home court, and 10-5 on the road. Average margin of victory was 12.9 on neutral court, 13.7 on home court and 4.7 on the road. The largest margin of victory on neutral court was 32 points, the largest margin of loss was 22, a 54 point swing; On home court the largest margin of victory was 33 points and the largest margin of loss was 10 points, a 43 point swing; On the road the largest margin of victory was 21 points and the largest margin of loss was 4 points, a 25 point swing.

So here you have two teams where one, based on their RL results, was clearly better and yet still lost in the SIM engine 9 times and once by as much 22 points. But overall, they still won 80% of the time - so the better team won more often than not. And these results don't seem that out of line with what is being posted in the examples above. So presumably you can take any of the results from the SIM Matchup and conclude that they are part of a normal distribution of results between two unevenly matched teams. From there it is also reasonable to conclude that HD will also have such a wide range of results within the normal distribution, irrespective of game settings.

My conclusion is that the reason behind such disparate results is by and large a product of the random number generator more than anything else and by a very large margin and it is also unlikely that there is any kind of "engine" boost given to SIMs in the post season, relative to the regular season.

My beef was the loss to Eastern Michigan. I blew it against a human coach. And he blew the game plan against the sim. By no means Eastern Michigan should have ever lost to Miami

Posted by jsajsa on 5/29/2016 10:59:00 PM (view original):
You can't possibly be serious that the sim is maximizing its practice and game plans, can you??? That's not even close to the truth.

And I'm also of the opinion that if you lose to a sim it's nearly always your own fault and shouldn't be chalked up to a phantom advantage they must have at a certain point of the season.

And sometimes it's random dumb luck. My CT streak at Maryville got snapped by a 2nd day loss to a sim Muskingum. IIRC, I won a national championship at 33-1 that season. Sometimes weird crap happens. But this doesn't happen often