Getting a late start to this because there was a tornado warning and my power went out for a while. I've been slacking towards the later parts of seasons and it's becoming a pattern. Let's hope I can turn that around next season. My apologies.
North
#1 Mansfield vs. #8 Bowie State
Mansfield was able to yet again take down Indiana in the CCG, putting them in a great spot as a #1 seed. They should be able to cruise easily in this one against a Bowie State team that, while not a threat right now, still has to be excited that they just snuck into the playoffs as the final team to get a bid at #32 in the WIS rankings. Still, this one should be a blowout.
#4 Cheyney vs. #5 Long Island
An interesting matchup here. If there was any different ending for Cheyney in the CCG, I'd be taking Long Island in convincing fashion here. And I'm still picking Long Island but I'm more intrigued at what Cheyney can bring to the table. They were down 21-17 at the half against Truman State in the CCG. They then exploded in dominating fashion and winning by a final score of 52-24. That's a beat down of 35-3 in the 2nd half. There was not another game during the season that showed that kind of dominance against a worthy opponent. Their only loss came to a Lenoir-Rhyne team that just missed the playoffs. This will most likely spell an easy win for Long Island, given that they had much better consistency in their wins and a solid win against Humboldt State as well that should give them enough confidence to take down this Cheyney team.
#3 Northern State vs. #6 Millersville
Congrats to ranger on winning the CCG against a UMC team that has long had their number. It's the first CC since season 93 for Northern State and ranger has to feel some relief for that. And also maybe a bit of excitement, considering that they really pummeled UMC in the first half of the CCG, leaving plenty of room for comfort in the 2nd half. They probably aren't very excited about having to face mojo in the first round though. This is a team that could most definitely upset Northern State with one or two missteps to spark it. This game should likely come down to turnovers. And though Northern State clearly has the better defense, they'll have to worry about their young QB making mistakes. It'll be a tough scenario of how to gameplan, as Millersville is probably weakest in their secondary, but I don't know how I'd feel about relying on that young QB. This game feels like it could go any way possible. I could see a blowout from either side, as well as a very tight game down to the end. I'll take Millersville in a close one, but I don't say that with much confidence at all.
#2 NCCU vs. #7 NSU
Though NCCU has a young QB of their own, I don't think this NSU team is the squad to be able to take advantage of it. Too much talent in all of the places that will keep NSU from having much of a chance. Even if NCCU's QB goes haywire and tries to throw the game away, I'd still bet on a double digit win from NCCU.
South
#1 Valdosta State vs. #8 WVWC
Superv stated that he was going to be giving some closer attention to the team this year, and it certainly shows. There wasn't a human team that could come closer than within 36 points of Valdosta and that included two blowout wins against West Alabama, the team that duped Valdosta out of a CC last season. This should be an easy first round playoff game for superv, even though robbman has made a quick playoff appearance with his new team. They just aren't ready to roll with the big boys. Valdosta by 35+.
#4 ESUP vs. #5 Saint Joseph's
This one has me stumped. Me and badaxe have never met before except for a game earlier this year during exhibition where I had all my freshmen in and got knocked around by some 60 points. I can't put a whole lot of stock into that performance, considering the crazy difference in Formation IQ in the game. I think my rookie QB threw around 12 picks, lol. I doubt I'll lose by 60 points but that doesn't mean I'm not worried quite a lot about this one. Badaxe has done some great, surprising things to some very good opponents (ones that are better than me for sure) and he's also had a LOT of close games throughout these last several seasons. And yet both these teams have had good playoff success in the last few years so something will give. SJC had absolutely zero challenges except for their lone loss against a good Quincy team. I'll guess this one comes down to the end but I could see either team also finding a way to scoot through to the 2nd round with a 14 point win as well. I'm thinking ESUP has the slight upper hand just based on all of those constant uphill PSAC struggles he has to deal with to prepare him for tough playoff games.
#3 Carson-Newman vs. #6 Colorado-Mines
At the beginning of the season, if you asked me if Mines would have a good shot in this game for a 1st round playoff match, I'd answer with an enthusiastic yes. But after losing to Highlands earlier in the year and then barely eking it out against them in the CCG, I'd say this one should belong to CN. CN hasn't exactly had a very tough road to get here, but I think they've still proven they should have the upper hand in this one. I could see myself being wrong in this one but if I were, I'm guessing Mines would have to win by a nose. I don't see how they could end up dominating this one.
#2 Humboldt State vs. #7 Indianapolis
Indianapolis had a pretty underwhelming season, but their four games against human opponents were all teams they really should have lost to anyway, so the fact that they played two of those teams fairly tough might say something. Humboldt State had one hiccup against Long Island but otherwise looked like their stellar selves for the rest of the season. If they regular season showed us anything, it would be that Indianapolis probably isn't ready to take on and defeat a team like Humboldt. Too much firepower to defend against and not enough of their own to make it a game. I like Humboldt by three scores.
East
#1 Bryant vs. #8 Findlay
Bryant is definitely the weakest of the #1 seeds but I don't think their season will end so soon. This is a rematch from earlier in the season where bribigdog took care of business with ease, winning 44-19. The only thing that mgoblue should have going for him is that he was able to see the tactics used in the first go around. I don't think that will matter enough in this one, considering that Bryant will still have a sizable talent advantage. I like Bryant by 17 or so.
#4 SEO vs. #5 Delta State
These two teams should feel pretty good to be in the East bracket because of that potential second round game. I think SEO is a very good team to be at a #4 seed but Delta State has also showed some very good promise from the last couple years. The talent gap might be a bit too much to overcome for Delta though, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where SEO will have a good edge with their depth. I like SEO by 10-14.
#3 UMC vs. #6 West Alabama
UMC might be reeling from their first CCG loss in quite some time, but they should have this one in the bag unless some very weird stuff happens. It was surprising enough to see them get their butts handed to them against Northern State, but that was a team with some definite experiential edge. West Alabama is making their strides, but I think they showed they still have a ways to go with their two losses against Valdosta this year, totalling up at a deficit of 34-180. West Alabama would have had a serious shot against CN if they had drawn them, but it wasn't in the cards. I like UMC by 20+.
#2 Indiana vs. #7 Truman State
Whoops. Not the right draw for Truman State to be able to walk away from this one with much of a grin. If Indiana had won the CCG and Truman would be playing Mansfield in this first round, I'd be saying the same thing though. Indiana by a lot. Tough break for Truman but there weren't many #2 seeds that they'd have the potential in beating anyhow at this stage of the school's development.
West
#1 GVSU vs. #8 ACU
Another undefeated regular season for GVSU, but they want to make a NC appearance. At least the semis would feel good to make it back to. This might be the right bracket to have a chance for that though. The most likely meeting for them in the quarters would be Quincy, who I think those two teams are matched up pretty evenly. But for here now against ACU, GVSU should be able to roll through with ease. It might not be a run the score up type of affair, but it should be efficient enough to not have a sweat. ACU isn't a terrible #8 seed, but they've dropped off a bit from where they were a couple years ago. I like GVSU by 20.
#4 Concord vs. #5 SDSU
Bballc has to feel good about where the Concord program is at. The loss to Bryant in the CCG was understandable, but they had to be happy just to be playing in that game. And now they'll have a somewhat decent shot at winning a first round game. SDSU is probably the better team, but they left early in last year's playoffs and this year's team isn't quite as good as last year's squad. Concord is, however, a much lighter opponent as opposed to last year's Valdosta State. I think SDSU has about a 60-65% chance in this one, so I wouldn't be shocked if Concord won, but I do think it would be a legitimate upset on their part. I'll take SDSU by a TD.
#3 Virginia State vs. #6 Miles
Virginia State had a great showing in the CCG and Miles gets a real bad draw here. Pistol just seems to have his team exactly where it needs to be and it looks as if they'll get through to the 2nd round unscathed. Miles isn't a slouch, but their offense dropped off some from last year, making their defensive woes that much more troublesome. I like Virginia State by 21+.
#2 Quincy vs. #7 California
What a tough blow for metcalf and California. They play Indiana amazingly well, limiting them to only 14 points, and though they ended with a weak SOS, they get rewarded nothing for it. It would be nice if close losses against great teams actually counted for something more in this game. California is definitely better than a #7 seed but thems the breaks I guess. Quincy had a great season and even if this were a #1/#4 matchup in the 2nd round, Quincy would have the clear advantage. Brygold shouldn't sleep on this one though. With metcalf showing that great performance against lyonzfan and Indiana, he's proven he can play elite teams tough. That being said, I think I'll take Quincy by somewhere between 17 and 24 points.
Alright, GL all in the 1st round. Let's have some classic games to start!
7/5/2016 11:19 PM (edited)