Season 109 Warner DII Blog Topic

Wow Ickiwonkin your a regular "John Anthony". Won by 16 against a rebuilding Mojo but Ill take any win I can get against him. Thanks for the write-ups. I do enjoy reading them.
7/1/2016 2:45 AM
Getting a late start to this because there was a tornado warning and my power went out for a while. I've been slacking towards the later parts of seasons and it's becoming a pattern. Let's hope I can turn that around next season. My apologies.

North
#1 Mansfield vs. #8 Bowie State
Mansfield was able to yet again take down Indiana in the CCG, putting them in a great spot as a #1 seed. They should be able to cruise easily in this one against a Bowie State team that, while not a threat right now, still has to be excited that they just snuck into the playoffs as the final team to get a bid at #32 in the WIS rankings. Still, this one should be a blowout.

#4 Cheyney vs. #5 Long Island
An interesting matchup here. If there was any different ending for Cheyney in the CCG, I'd be taking Long Island in convincing fashion here. And I'm still picking Long Island but I'm more intrigued at what Cheyney can bring to the table. They were down 21-17 at the half against Truman State in the CCG. They then exploded in dominating fashion and winning by a final score of 52-24. That's a beat down of 35-3 in the 2nd half. There was not another game during the season that showed that kind of dominance against a worthy opponent. Their only loss came to a Lenoir-Rhyne team that just missed the playoffs. This will most likely spell an easy win for Long Island, given that they had much better consistency in their wins and a solid win against Humboldt State as well that should give them enough confidence to take down this Cheyney team.

#3 Northern State vs. #6 Millersville
Congrats to ranger on winning the CCG against a UMC team that has long had their number. It's the first CC since season 93 for Northern State and ranger has to feel some relief for that. And also maybe a bit of excitement, considering that they really pummeled UMC in the first half of the CCG, leaving plenty of room for comfort in the 2nd half. They probably aren't very excited about having to face mojo in the first round though. This is a team that could most definitely upset Northern State with one or two missteps to spark it. This game should likely come down to turnovers. And though Northern State clearly has the better defense, they'll have to worry about their young QB making mistakes. It'll be a tough scenario of how to gameplan, as Millersville is probably weakest in their secondary, but I don't know how I'd feel about relying on that young QB. This game feels like it could go any way possible. I could see a blowout from either side, as well as a very tight game down to the end. I'll take Millersville in a close one, but I don't say that with much confidence at all.

#2 NCCU vs. #7 NSU
Though NCCU has a young QB of their own, I don't think this NSU team is the squad to be able to take advantage of it. Too much talent in all of the places that will keep NSU from having much of a chance. Even if NCCU's QB goes haywire and tries to throw the game away, I'd still bet on a double digit win from NCCU.

South
#1 Valdosta State vs. #8 WVWC
Superv stated that he was going to be giving some closer attention to the team this year, and it certainly shows. There wasn't a human team that could come closer than within 36 points of Valdosta and that included two blowout wins against West Alabama, the team that duped Valdosta out of a CC last season. This should be an easy first round playoff game for superv, even though robbman has made a quick playoff appearance with his new team. They just aren't ready to roll with the big boys. Valdosta by 35+.

#4 ESUP vs. #5 Saint Joseph's
This one has me stumped. Me and badaxe have never met before except for a game earlier this year during exhibition where I had all my freshmen in and got knocked around by some 60 points. I can't put a whole lot of stock into that performance, considering the crazy difference in Formation IQ in the game. I think my rookie QB threw around 12 picks, lol. I doubt I'll lose by 60 points but that doesn't mean I'm not worried quite a lot about this one. Badaxe has done some great, surprising things to some very good opponents (ones that are better than me for sure) and he's also had a LOT of close games throughout these last several seasons. And yet both these teams have had good playoff success in the last few years so something will give. SJC had absolutely zero challenges except for their lone loss against a good Quincy team. I'll guess this one comes down to the end but I could see either team also finding a way to scoot through to the 2nd round with a 14 point win as well. I'm thinking ESUP has the slight upper hand just based on all of those constant uphill PSAC struggles he has to deal with to prepare him for tough playoff games.

#3 Carson-Newman vs. #6 Colorado-Mines
At the beginning of the season, if you asked me if Mines would have a good shot in this game for a 1st round playoff match, I'd answer with an enthusiastic yes. But after losing to Highlands earlier in the year and then barely eking it out against them in the CCG, I'd say this one should belong to CN. CN hasn't exactly had a very tough road to get here, but I think they've still proven they should have the upper hand in this one. I could see myself being wrong in this one but if I were, I'm guessing Mines would have to win by a nose. I don't see how they could end up dominating this one.

#2 Humboldt State vs. #7 Indianapolis
Indianapolis had a pretty underwhelming season, but their four games against human opponents were all teams they really should have lost to anyway, so the fact that they played two of those teams fairly tough might say something. Humboldt State had one hiccup against Long Island but otherwise looked like their stellar selves for the rest of the season. If they regular season showed us anything, it would be that Indianapolis probably isn't ready to take on and defeat a team like Humboldt. Too much firepower to defend against and not enough of their own to make it a game. I like Humboldt by three scores.

East
#1 Bryant vs. #8 Findlay
Bryant is definitely the weakest of the #1 seeds but I don't think their season will end so soon. This is a rematch from earlier in the season where bribigdog took care of business with ease, winning 44-19. The only thing that mgoblue should have going for him is that he was able to see the tactics used in the first go around. I don't think that will matter enough in this one, considering that Bryant will still have a sizable talent advantage. I like Bryant by 17 or so.

#4 SEO vs. #5 Delta State
These two teams should feel pretty good to be in the East bracket because of that potential second round game. I think SEO is a very good team to be at a #4 seed but Delta State has also showed some very good promise from the last couple years. The talent gap might be a bit too much to overcome for Delta though, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where SEO will have a good edge with their depth. I like SEO by 10-14.

#3 UMC vs. #6 West Alabama
UMC might be reeling from their first CCG loss in quite some time, but they should have this one in the bag unless some very weird stuff happens. It was surprising enough to see them get their butts handed to them against Northern State, but that was a team with some definite experiential edge. West Alabama is making their strides, but I think they showed they still have a ways to go with their two losses against Valdosta this year, totalling up at a deficit of 34-180. West Alabama would have had a serious shot against CN if they had drawn them, but it wasn't in the cards. I like UMC by 20+.

#2 Indiana vs. #7 Truman State
Whoops. Not the right draw for Truman State to be able to walk away from this one with much of a grin. If Indiana had won the CCG and Truman would be playing Mansfield in this first round, I'd be saying the same thing though. Indiana by a lot. Tough break for Truman but there weren't many #2 seeds that they'd have the potential in beating anyhow at this stage of the school's development.

West
#1 GVSU vs. #8 ACU
Another undefeated regular season for GVSU, but they want to make a NC appearance. At least the semis would feel good to make it back to. This might be the right bracket to have a chance for that though. The most likely meeting for them in the quarters would be Quincy, who I think those two teams are matched up pretty evenly. But for here now against ACU, GVSU should be able to roll through with ease. It might not be a run the score up type of affair, but it should be efficient enough to not have a sweat. ACU isn't a terrible #8 seed, but they've dropped off a bit from where they were a couple years ago. I like GVSU by 20.

#4 Concord vs. #5 SDSU
Bballc has to feel good about where the Concord program is at. The loss to Bryant in the CCG was understandable, but they had to be happy just to be playing in that game. And now they'll have a somewhat decent shot at winning a first round game. SDSU is probably the better team, but they left early in last year's playoffs and this year's team isn't quite as good as last year's squad. Concord is, however, a much lighter opponent as opposed to last year's Valdosta State. I think SDSU has about a 60-65% chance in this one, so I wouldn't be shocked if Concord won, but I do think it would be a legitimate upset on their part. I'll take SDSU by a TD.

#3 Virginia State vs. #6 Miles
Virginia State had a great showing in the CCG and Miles gets a real bad draw here. Pistol just seems to have his team exactly where it needs to be and it looks as if they'll get through to the 2nd round unscathed. Miles isn't a slouch, but their offense dropped off some from last year, making their defensive woes that much more troublesome. I like Virginia State by 21+.

#2 Quincy vs. #7 California
What a tough blow for metcalf and California. They play Indiana amazingly well, limiting them to only 14 points, and though they ended with a weak SOS, they get rewarded nothing for it. It would be nice if close losses against great teams actually counted for something more in this game. California is definitely better than a #7 seed but thems the breaks I guess. Quincy had a great season and even if this were a #1/#4 matchup in the 2nd round, Quincy would have the clear advantage. Brygold shouldn't sleep on this one though. With metcalf showing that great performance against lyonzfan and Indiana, he's proven he can play elite teams tough. That being said, I think I'll take Quincy by somewhere between 17 and 24 points.

Alright, GL all in the 1st round. Let's have some classic games to start!
7/5/2016 11:19 PM (edited)
Round 1 is in the books and I somehow managed to pick all the winners correctly, except for my own game, where I gave ESUP the slight edge and ended barely walking away with a win. I definitely didn't get how the teams I chose to win would win, but better than I usually do.

North
#1 Mansfield vs. #5 Long Island
This one might end up being a bit closer than I'm going to predict, so I won't say this with too much confidence. But I quite like Mansfield in this one and them and Indiana just both seem so tough to take down. I'm thinking Mansfield by 17, and though it may be a bit high, I'm sticking with it. Long Island isn't a bad team, but they have showed instances of underwhelming moments during the season. And you can't have those when facing the elite of the elite.

#6 Millersville vs. #2 NCCU
NCCU did not get through that first round with much momentum. You could say they even kind of limped through. I like Millersville in this game for one sole reason, that NCCU QB is just too young and final scores throughout the year have proven that to me. Millersville has some things rolling on offense and as long as they don't have a defensive collapse and can rattle the young QB instead, I like them to take down the #2 seed. I'll say Millersville by 10, making it a PSAC quarterfinal in the North.

South
#1 Valdosta State vs. #5 Saint Joseph's
Valdosta creamed the newcomers, WVWC, while SJC had some major leaks that led to a very close game that they nearly lost, and by looking at the box score, shouldn't have had much of a problem winning at all. Two special teams TDs given up against ESUP and -2 in the turnover margin made it a big struggle for SJC. If that happens in this one, you can mark down Valdosta in the quarterfinals for the South bracket. SJC will have to play much cleaner and even that will likely not be enough. Valdosta is just shredding defenses right now and no one has been able to slow them down. They haven't had much in the line of a worthy defensive opponent, but the numbers they're showing are still quite ridiculous. I like Valdosta by 13 or so.

#3 Carson-Newman vs. #2 Humboldt State
Though Humboldt State had some problems with Indianapolis and really had to struggle to squeak one out, I'm going to predict a blowout in this one. Humboldt State all the way by 28+. Carson-Newman just has way too many depth issues and I feel like they've wound up in a spot where their seed is far better than their actual team.

East
#1 Bryant vs. #4 SEO
This could very well be the closest game of the 2nd round. I feel like Bryant is more of a #2 or #3 seed, while SEO is also more of a #2 or #3 seed, yet they both wound up a little further from the truth and end up playing each other as two very evenly matched counterparts. My edge goes to SEO as I feel they have the more complete team and will be less prone to weaknesses defensively speaking. I do think this game will be wildly close though. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple OTs in the box score. Either team will have a hefty load to try to get through in the next round, with the likely winner being Indiana.

#3 UMC vs. #2 Indiana
Nacorwin pulled the 2nd round match that no one likes to see. Indiana has been less dominant than in recent years past, but they still look damn tough to beat. UMC will have to really control this game through the clock and play mistake free football, while hoping to gain an edge on special teams, something they've usually been on the wrong side of. I think it may be close going into the half, with Indiana pulling away mid-3rd quarter and taking it by 17-20 points.

West
#1 GVSU vs. #5 SDSU
GVSU definitely could have had a more convincing victory in round 1 but it seems like their team performs similarly to teams in the top ten as they do against teams in the next 10-15 ranking spots. The final result is that they very commonly win. And that's all that really matters. The top 5 teams are the ones they need to have more consistency against, and I can tell you that SDSU is not one of those teams. But I wouldn't completely count them out. I think it's a long shot, but if some lucky bounces roll their way, they just may be able to steal one. GVSU isn't the type of team to drop 70 in the playoffs very frequently so it always gives lesser teams a little bit more hope. But likely false hope. I'll take GVSU in the end by 16.

#3 Virginia State vs. #2 Quincy
This is a very tough one to predict. On the one hand, you could look at Quincy's first round matchup and say that it doesn't look promising, only being able to win by 2 against a #7 seed. But California has just been playing ridiculously great defense and I don't hold that against Quincy. Now they play the opposite type of a team, with a well oiled offensive machine. I hate to say it, as I'd like my fellow SIAC mate to advance, but I'm gonna have to go with the hot hand of Virginia State in this one. They just seem to have too much firepower to handle. Quincy is a great team who has had some great success on offense themselves this season, but something tells me Virginia State will be the team to come out on top in this one. I still think it will be close, but I like pistol's team to take this one by a TD.

GL to all in the 2nd round! Maybe I'll get every game wrong this time.
7/6/2016 11:32 PM
Well, apparently WIS was actually pretty accurate for a change by getting very close to perfect on the rankings of the last 8 teams. All top 8 ranked teams are there with Virginia State being substituted as the #10 seed in replace of the team they actually just faced, #7 seed Quincy. If Quincy would have won, I can only imagine how rare that would have been for all top 8 ranked teams to be the last 8 standing. Anywho.

North
Mansfield vs. NCCU
Mansfield absolutely dominated last round and NCCU had to sneak by Millersville in a hard fought game. I don't see NCCU's chances as very high in this one. Just too much dominance from Mansfield as of late, especially from their defense. And the biggest issue for NCCU is their QB. So I'm guessing this one won't be very close. I don't think it will be anything like the shutout that Mansfield just dealt to Long Island, but something in between that. So I'll say Mansfield by 17-20 points.

South
Valdosta State vs. Humboldt State
I'm gonna have a hard time forgetting the game I just blew to Valdosta. There were several things that could have prevented the comeback win by superv's squad, but none of them worked out the way I would have liked. 31-17 at half looked good for SJC and it turned into a 45-38 defeat in OT. While Humboldt didn't have quite the issues in their game against CN, it also wasn't as lopsided as I thought it may be. I don't think Humboldt is out of contention in this one by any means, but I do think Valdosta is the better team. Humboldt should be able to score a decent amount of points, but they'll have to be pretty perfect on offense with the way that Valdosta has been slinging the ball. Because the higher the score goes in this one, the more it favors Valdosta. I'll take Valdosta by 13.

East
Bryant vs. Indiana
Bryant walked away with a very nice win against SEO, and that will really start to help in terms of vision and creating a top team for the future. But I think this is where the road stops for them. If they can find a way to beat Indiana, I'll be seriously impressed. I wouldn't even know where to begin on how to accomplish that though. Crossing fingers never hurts, right? I'll take the former champs going on 3 years by 24.

West
GVSU vs. Virginia State
Boy, Virginia State is really showing their dominance this season by dismantling teams without a whole lot of trouble like Quincy and NCCU. GVSU is in the same category and I guess that's why I have to take Virginia State again. This shotgun wrecking crew can't seem to be stopped. GVSU may try to control the game and keep that offense off of the field, but that will be easier said than done. I'll take Virginia State by 10.

GL to all! Wish I could have been playing this next round, but alas, it wasn't meant to be.
7/7/2016 10:30 PM
The final four
Mansfield vs. Valdosta State
Another ridiculously dominating performance from Mansfield should keep them as solid favorites against Valdosta. No disrespect to superv and Valdosta, but look at the last couple of games alone for Mansfield. A 40-0 win against a good long island team and then a 48-7 drubbing against NCCU. Valdosta will have to pull a magic trick to get through this game, something that they do have the potential to do. It feels like a close first three quarters, followed by decent separation made by Mansfield in the fourth. I'll take Mansfield by 14 in a game that is closer than the score indicates.

GVSU vs. Indiana
The only team left with a loss is the same team who has won the last 3 NCs. Lyonz will need to get past realist and GVSU in order to get back for a chance at a fourth in a row. I see lyonz getting there but realist has had some very convincing elite play at times this year. One of those major times was against Virginia State in their last game. A phenomenal defensive performance against a powerhouse offense that has been shredding everyone. I think this one is going to come down to the wire. I like Indiana but I really feel like it will be decided by 3-6 points. Indiana could also end up winning in a blowout but I think this is the year their complete dominance this late in the season comes to an end. Indiana still to win, but not in the way they've grown accustomed to.

GL, you four!
7/9/2016 1:08 AM
Final 2 = Mansfield vs Indiana PA !
7/9/2016 1:54 AM
You were half right.
7/9/2016 11:49 PM
GG SuperV, your team is firing on all cylinders!

Icki - Do you not use the results tab on the Office page to view your game play by play?? I think this is the absolute best part of GD.
7/10/2016 2:22 AM
Posted by fotman on 7/10/2016 2:22:00 AM (view original):
GG SuperV, your team is firing on all cylinders!

Icki - Do you not use the results tab on the Office page to view your game play by play?? I think this is the absolute best part of GD.
I used to. And it was absolutely my favorite part as well. And now, to be honest, it's just too damn stressful. I'd rather tear the bandaid off. It helps me take the game less seriously as well, which is something that I need to do in my life. Otherwise I become too competitive for my own good. I probably would have gotten much angrier if I had watched the Valdosta play by play and I hate when I get angry over a game.

It's looking like Indiana may just be crowned for the 4th time in a row. Valdosta had a KR for a TD that is keeping them in this game but they'll have to have a heck of a turnaround on both sides of the ball in order to be able to make the comeback win. It could definitely look a lot worse for them, so as long as they can make the appropriate changes and maybe force a turnover or two, they have a great shot at this one.

GL to both of you!
7/10/2016 9:28 AM
Wow! An OT Final! Congrats Lyonzfan!
7/10/2016 5:35 PM
Glad I was able to make a game of it. Congrats lyonzfan!
7/11/2016 9:17 AM
Enjoyed the read, wish I'd have picked up on it earlier I will be watching for S-110 Blog
7/12/2016 8:05 PM
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