That is an error that I brought to their attention before, but they never corrected. The text is describing what happens on run play settings.

I *think* it's the percentage chance that on any given play your defense will blitz in the Playbook). The individual blitzer is determined in the formation.

It would seem to somewhat make sense that if you bitzed your inside LBs or safeties, they would blitz from the inside. And if you blitzed your outside LBs or cornerbacks, they would blitz from the outside. If have no idea if this is actually the case.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=473996&TopicsTimeframe=30

^I asked the same question a couple of years ago. I thought customer service chimed in, but I guess not.

Oh and I did submit a ticket about the faulty language:

" that help is incorrect - it's referring to rush inside. We'll get that fixed.

Playbook blitz settings control how often you will blitz and formation blitz settings control who blitzes. So in order to blitz you need to have both set up correctly. Also, I believe the engine may prevent you from blitzing 100% of the time but you should be able to do it pretty often."

Loosely related question. Is there a difference in how the sim treats playing a LB on the line versus having him blitz in a given play?

Posted by rusticity on 6/18/2016 10:03:00 PM (view original):
Loosely related question. Is there a difference in how the sim treats playing a LB on the line versus having him blitz in a given play?

Many will have a theory, but that's all they are, is theories.

Thanks. While I'm at it, I have a question about the run/pass option in the playbook.
If you are running against me would you rather see:
a) 4-3 def with 3 LB in coverage (0 on the line) and expecting a run
b) 4-3 def with 2 LB in coverage (1 on the line) but expecting a pass

More questions and talking out loud. Does the run/pass setting in the defense playbook reward you for being closer to the % run/pass of the offense? Or does it just roll each independently and reward the defense when they are right.

For instance, if offense is 50/50 run/pass in a scenario. If I pick 100% run, I'll be right 50% of the time. But if I pick 50/50 (correctly matching their balance), I'll be right 25% and wrong 75%.

I loosely "feel" like the defense should potentially should be rewarded for correctly predicting the balance of the offense. However, if the chance of a run/pass is always independently rolled for the O's and D's, I'll always be worse off by going anything other than 100%.

I could be thinking about this all wrong though. The Offense rolls whether they run or pass, while the defense doesn't really ever roll, its more of a percentage by which they cheat. So with a 50/50 setting, they never cheat one way, so they never get a penalty or bonus, while going 100% will get you a bonus 50% of the time and penalty 50% of the time. This probably makes the most sense.

Never thought of it that way. I always considered it a single play call.

"For instance, if offense is 50/50 run/pass in a scenario. If I pick 100% run, I'll be right 50% of the time. But if I pick 50/50 (correctly matching their balance), I'll be right 25% and wrong 75%."
I'm no statistician, but if you use 50/50 you will be right on average 50% not 25% of the time; you'll get half wrong and half right on his pass calls and the same again on the run. The potential variance (good or bad) is greater though.
It's good question and one I've thought too long about and results steadily getting worse because of it. Let's hope someone can put us straight

With both offense picking 50/50 splits, there can be 4 different outcomes:

Offense Run / Defense Run (Match)
Offense Run / Defense Pass (Mis-match)
Offense Pass / Defense Run (Mis-match)
Offense Pass / Defense Pass (Match)

So polarsi is correct. There is a 50/50 chance that the defense matches up correctly.

I guess it gets little more complicated if say the offense has a 33/67 split and the defense stays with the 50/50.

Another question I have; Is it better to have a run defense against a pass play, or a pass defense against a running play?

Posted by polarsi on 6/20/2016 12:01:00 PM (view original):
"For instance, if offense is 50/50 run/pass in a scenario. If I pick 100% run, I'll be right 50% of the time. But if I pick 50/50 (correctly matching their balance), I'll be right 25% and wrong 75%."
I'm no statistician, but if you use 50/50 you will be right on average 50% not 25% of the time; you'll get half wrong and half right on his pass calls and the same again on the run. The potential variance (good or bad) is greater though.
It's good question and one I've thought too long about and results steadily getting worse because of it. Let's hope someone can put us straight

It is essentially guessing a coin flip. There are two possible outcomes and two possible guesses. Let's say you are against an offense that (in that particular down and distance) is 50/50 run/pass just like a coin flip. So let's break this down as if it was a coin flip.

If you are guessing 50% of the time heads and 50% of the time tails, here is what happens.

There are 100 coin flips. Of those, 50 are heads and 50 are tails. There are 100 guesses -- also 50 heads and 50 tails. For each flip there are four possible scenarios -- two of which you guess correctly and two you guess incorrectly.

Each flip you have a 50% chance of being right and a 50% chance of being wrong. When you mix your guesses 50/50, variance enters into it. It easily becomes possible to end up being right 75% of the flips or only 25% of the flips. If you you keep the guess the same every time, you lower the variance and you ensure you are right 50% of the time instead of probably being right about 50% of the time.