I compared the final ELO rankings to the WIS rankings. It may give a little insight into the playoffs. A negative rating for "vs ELO" column means WIS rated them much lower than they should be, a positive rating means WIS overrated them vs ELO.
Underrated teams:
Northeastern should be a #1 seed, not #2 seed.
Jacksonville State is vastly underrated. Should be the top 3-seed, not a 5-seed. They are definitely favorites over Duquesne.
Columbia is very underrated, they should be a top 4-seed instead of a bottom 6-seed. Unfortunately they meet up with #3 seed Drake, who should be a number 2 seed, so they will still be underdogs. Brutal first round matchup for both teams.
Eastern Illinois is also underrated; they should be a #4 seed instead of a top 7-seed! They are only slightly lower in ELO than Jacksonville (who should be a 3-seed), so this game will nearly be a coin-flip.
Cal Poly snuck into the playoffs with a win over #2 seed Texas State in the conference championship game, but they probably deserved a place prior to that win. I project them as a low 5-seed instead of an 8-seed. However, they still don't stand much chance vs 1-seed Holy Cross (who I project as a 2-seed).
Overrated teams:
Alabama A&M is the first team overrated by more than 4 spots. A 3-seed when they should be a 4-seed. Not that big of a discrepancy.
Texas Southern was generously given a 3-seed when they should be a top 6-seed. They went 1-2 vs top 25 competition; the rest of their schedule was easy.
Appalachian State was generously given a 4-seed when they should have been a 6-seed. Only 0-1 in top 25 matches (47-0 loss to Youngstown State), they had very little high level competition. However, they did win vs two teams ranked #26 and 28 (East Tennessee St and Elon, both teams SEVERELY overrated per ELO rankings). Per ELO, their top win was a #40 ranked team. They also barely survived the #118 WIS team, only winning by 6 points. I normally would expect ASU to lose as a 4-seed, however, they lucked out by being match up against an overrated:
Bethune-Cookman: This team should have been an 8-seed, but managed to get a 5-seed.
Howard is slightly overrated, with a 4 seed when they should have been a 6 seed. ELO ranks them as underdogs vs Northern Arizona.
East Tennessee State was 0-2 vs top 25, lost to a #31 team, squeaked out some wins (triple OT vs #66 WIS team), yet still somehow the committee award them a 7-seed. Some media members have made mentions of committee members passing around bottles of Tennessee whiskey, but the committee has denied any involvement with ETSU boosters.
Dayton got blown out in all 3 top 25 games, yet the committee miraculously rewarded them with a 7-seed for beating up on easier opponents.
Elon University is probably one of the most boggling admissions to the playoffs by the committee. After losing to Delaware State (#87 WIS), they didn't beat anyone else that deserves to be in the playoff field. They lost to East Tennessee State, and their only win over a playoff team was...
Northwestern State, who had a cupcake schedule all season. Their only win over a playoff team was East Tennessee State. NWSU, ETSU, and Elon all managed to play off each other and sneak into the playoffs together, when none of the three deserved to be there per ELO.
Savannah State went 0-2 vs top 25 teams. Can't totally blame them for not playing top level talent, as coach rusticity just started this season. However, the loss to #105 ranked Monmouth shows this team probably shouldn't be in the playoffs this year.
Teams that should have been in the playoffs:
Albany is ranked #17 in ELO, but #34 in WIS. They went 0-4 vs top 25 competition (losing one in OT), 9-0 vs the rest of competition. Winning the OT game would have likely secured them a #6 position. ELO has Albany ranked as the top 5-seed. Their scoring margin was ranked 9th in D-IAA, showing that overall on the season, they won by large margins. Coach naskin declined to comment on the committee's decision, but soon after his season-ending press conference, loud noises were heard from the locker room, and a chair was thrown into the hallway.
Sam Houston State was just as underrated (#25 in ELO, #44 in WIS) after undergoing a brutal non-conference schedule, with the Champions League on their plate. Expect them to rebound strongly in WIS rankings next season if their ELO rating holds true (and considering they've been relegated from Champions League)
Villanova should be in as a 7-seed (#28 ELO). Instead, they were ranked #41. The committee is maybe overcompensating for the #1 seed they gave Villanova 2 seasons ago.
Marist should be in as an 8-seed, however the committee barely voted them out. Similar to Albany, they went 0-4 vs top 25, and 9-0 vs all other teams.
Yale is the last team that should be in, as an 8-seed. They went 1-3 vs top 25, but the committee didn't like them losing to SC State in the first week of the season.
Teams that should NOT have been in the playoffs (described previously under overrated section):
East Tennessee State
Dayton
Elon University
Savannah State
Northwestern State
6/24/2016 4:48 PM (edited)