My bullpen blows - need help Topic

Hi all,

Semi new to HBD, and am really struggling with bullpen management. I am using a traditional LR, SU, CL model where my CL only pitches in save situations (recently changed to that). My CL is arguably my best reliever https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=6955063 .

20 of my 29 losses have come from the bullpen, and if I was a starting pitcher for this team, I would be getting pretty peeved. My combined starters ERA is 3.09 with a 1.16 whip. In contrast, the bullpen is sitting at a 5.97 / 1.661.

Other factors: I play in a very pitcher friendly park (SD), and my starting catcher's Pitch Calling is at 86. My team defense is overall ranked 4th; solid but not spectacular in terms of +/- plays.

Anyone have any suggestions or tips that I may be overlooking. thank you in advance!
6/25/2016 11:44 AM
Looking at your pitching staff as a whole, your staff's splits are too low. I'm not sure how they're managing 4.12 ERA, probably has a lot to do with the park. Go to WORLD-> REPORTS -> FRANCHISE RANKINGS. Filter to only show "Pitching Staff". Sort the results by vL or vR splits. Your team is bottom 5 in both. Their pitches are pretty solid but that won't entirely make up for the bad splits. Also, ditch the closer designation. You unnecessarily limit the innings of your best RP to the detriment of your team.

If you want specifics:
-Ugueto is not a ML pitcher with a vRH of 42
-Jordan should probably be pitching better than he is but his splits for a reliever are lower than ideal. His STA/DUR also limits how many innings he is available for.
-Mercedes's 3rd pitch at a rating of 30 is going to get him into trouble.

As a general rule of thumb, I'd like my pitchers to average at least a 70 between Control, vL, vR, P1, and P2. Closer to 80 on contending teams.

Also, ask the forum for help next time through FA and arbitration on who to extend/sign. This is one of the harder parts of the game to get a grasp. New owners almost always overvalue players, giving them arb and contracts they don't deserve. Looks like you've handed out a few contracts to guys that should be in AAA. Perkins getting $4M is a good example. Nobody with splits under 50 should be anything more than a mop-up or emergency call-up.
6/25/2016 12:29 PM
RP stats are always volatile because of small sample size. Mercedes and Jordan are both way below their previous performances, and with good defense and PC they'll regress toward their career norms. Perkins' horrible splits, esp vR, are not going to do well in ML even with great P1/VEL. Your pen has thrown just over 100 innings so the ERA is inflated by a few events, particularly the 7 HR given up by Jordan. Befre this season's 28 IP he gave up 0.98 HR/9. This season it's 2.25. That's driven by small sample size, not anything to do with defense or a dropoff in skill. Five of those 7 HR came at home in a -3 HR park; that's bad luck or running into big power hitters in a few at-bats.
6/25/2016 12:34 PM
And second what Brian said. Splits in the 50s will work only if most other key ratings are outstanding, and even then not against a good offensive team. A guy with 38/54 splits and 53/29 VEL/GB is going to get hit hard. Ugueto's other ratings would make him marginally useful as a back-of-the-pen pitcher if his splits were reversed. But 42 vR isn't ging to work. Delgado's 62/58 would be marginal if the other ratings were great, but they're not. Delgado, Lynn, Ugueto and Perkins are emergency, short-term callups from AAA and none is worth paying more than minimum wage for.
6/25/2016 12:42 PM
Very helpful guys. Thank you. Perkins needs to go for sure. I think he was the first contract I renewed in my first season. Bad move. I tried to get a few better FA's in the off season, but apparently needed to be more aggressive, as I have a huge budget surplus for players. I totally get the splits being very low, and will look for alternatives. Would it be a bad idea to bring up some promising young starting talent and throw them in the pen?

Are either one of you available to mentor if I have trade questions or FA opportunities?
6/25/2016 3:14 PM
Yeah, we've all made trades and contract offers we regret, part of the learning curve.

HBD is hard enough for a new player to learn how to manage the day to day aspects of the team. But the really hard part is understanding how to manage your finances efficiently, turning you budget into on-field success, all while having patience with a long term outlook.

The first step when taking over a team is figuring out where your team is at - rebuild (cupboards are bare, lots of bad contracts), on an upward trend (have young talent), contender (talent throughout the club), or on a downward trend (primarily older ML talent only). Most owners coming in fall into rebuild or downward trend situations. Figuring this out will drive all future decision making.

Personally, I wouldn't promote them until I had an idea of where my team is at and where I want it to be in the next 3+ seasons.

I'd offer to mentor but I'm still relatively new to the game, which is also why you should take what I have to say with a grain of salt. But you're more than welcome to send me a PM either way.
6/25/2016 4:00 PM
You should take everything anyone says with a grain of salt. If they use "always" "every" "have to" or "must" make it a shaker of salt.

Whether to promote depends on many factors. 1-Are they better than what you have in the majors? 2-Wll they make a difference between being competitive/non-competitive? 3-Does your world have MWR you need to worry about? 4-How much better are the ML coaches than AAA/AA coaches? 5-What ages are they (i.e. will the year of control you lose by putting them on the 40-man be when they are 30 or 35)? 6-Are they mostly done developing (around age 24-25 in very general terms)?

If your AAA coaches are reasonably close to ML, you won't be competitive either way, and there's no MWR to worry about, you're more likely to want them to stay in AAA. If your ML PC is 94 and your AAA/AA are 73/70, and they're in their mid 20s, you're more likely better off promoting them. Also check out the WW every day, and look to see what FA are hanging around. With the season under way any FA who are better than what you have are dirt cheap.
6/25/2016 4:16 PM
hi dark, different combos of dur and stam have optimal pitch count settings. Take note that on average, one inning (1.0 IP) will take approx 17-18 pitches for all pitchers overall, and elite guys are in the 14-15 range. My best advice is to diverge from the bullpen roles and player settings that simmy assigns. Simmy tends to over-use pitchers on a per-appearance basis. For a guy like Jordan (47 dur 39 stam), simmy probably assigns him role ClA, inning available 8 or 9, pitch counts of 30 min 35 max, with call bullpen 1 or 2. Instead, I would recommend setting him to ClA, inning avail 9, pitch count min none max 20, call bullpen 2 or 3. If you restrict his innings-per-appearance to whatever is the requirement for his role, then you can use him more often and he can have an impact on a larger volume of games. Closer is a specialty role that is not always correct (sometimes 20-30 setup pitches is more appropriate, it depends on dur-stam). ClA is most appropriate for 15 max-pitch guys.

Another useful tip is that for starters it's good to do both min-pitch and max-pitch, but for relievers you should try max-pitch only, with a min-pitch of none for all of them. This means that every RP is eligible to be pulled at any time. With min 20 max 30 simmy tends to leave RPs in jams prior to the 20th pitch because he hasnt hit his target, but with min none max 30 your guy can get pulled at any point. One of the key advanced stats is inherited runners (volume) and inherited runners percentage, so it can be useful to look up which teams rate most highly in that category and observe them and learn from their preferences

Another tip that helps my teams is to avoid call bullpen 1 at all costs for starters and relievers alike. Sometimes your best guy just doesn't have it, or matches up poorly against certain teams, or sometimes a pitching change gets a better 1v1 matchup that gets out of a jam. It might seem counter-intuitive but not even the best players are infallible. Player Profile: Emmanuel Vizquel is a 2, because sometimes he needs Player Profile: Steve Shaw to bail him out. Player Profile: Mike Prinz is great when he starts off innings but his K-rate and double-play rate are both low, call bullpen 2 (as opposed to 1) keeps him away from appearances where he gives up 5 runs. Player Profile: Richard Tatum is wildly inconsistent because his control is sub-par. In his two best seasons I was using him as SuA inning avail 8 min pitch none max pitch 25 with call bullpen 2 and he got a bunch of 2.0 IP saves, but in his two bad seasons I was using him as SuB with available inning 6 and call settings of 4 because 3-12 with 4.5 ERA is awful. Setting the best SP and RP to call 2, good SP and RP to 3, and average to mediocre SP and RP to 4. If a guy is bad enough to require a call setting of 5, then he probably just belongs in the minors. If you devote a roster spot to mop-up, set the mop-up's min pitch to none and max pitch to [2x stam] and call bullpen to 1 because that guy only pitches when you're losing by a ton anyways so who cares if he gives up 10 runs, just get the outs and save the real guys for the next game
6/28/2016 12:28 AM
That's a lot of words. I can probably summarize it without reading all of it.

RP can't be looked at with their basic stats. They throw limited innings and a couple of bad ones will wreck their overall. 5 runs in 45 innings is a 1.00 ERA. If he has a walk, hit, homer inning, he's 60% of the way there. If he has 5 of those in 45 one inning appearance, his ERA is 3.00. Acceptable but he was a shut-the-door RP in his 40 other appearances. I'll take that all day.

In keeping with pjf's long-winded soliloquy, recs are too high for most RP. Start there and adjust. If SIMMY has 15/15, I use 10/15. I don't have any short reliever over 25/30 because, if he's doing his job, he's pitching two innings. That's enough.
6/28/2016 8:25 AM
This was very helpful guys. I have made some adjustments, and hope to reap the benefits.
6/28/2016 7:36 PM
My bullpen blows - need help Topic

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