Posted by thewizard17 on 7/26/2016 11:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 8:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by thewizard17 on 7/26/2016 2:44:00 PM (view original):
It's tricky and you have to take into consideration a number of factors when deciding to play a + defense.
Yanks made a good point about a team taking a lot of 3s and missing them and letting them shoot them. Your worst enemy is allowing offensive rebounds, because then the scoring chances increase significantly.. Also, if the other team has good athleticism and low post, they can adjust against a + defense and look to score inside. The SIM will automatically do this. The benefits of playing a + defense is you don't foul as often.
Also, try to find comparable teams to your team they've played, for instance, good man to man defense and see how they shot. I've had teams that have shot a much higher percentage against a certain type of defense compared to other defenses
just in case anyone is wondering who i was talking to, trying to discourage the behavior of considering how the opponent performed against various defenses, it was this post / thewizard17. wasn't sure that would be clear... i felt i had phrased it a little different, and upon re-read of the post that inspired mine, i still feel that is true...
You're probably much more knowlegeable at this game than I am, gillispie, however I do disagree here.
Maybe I misinterpreted your last post. My thinking maybe was a bit more complex here. It is known that three point percentages are lower against a man to man defense compared to a 2-3 zone defense. A team that runs a FCP may also have a stamina advantage against a particular team trying to break the press. If a team has low stamina low post players vs the same team with high stamina three point shooting guards, against a FCP those low post players are going to tire quickly, therefore the three point shooting guards are going to be more efficient.
i am actually not 100% sure i follow you. yes, 3pt percentages vary by defense - we both agree there (i think i said as much in the post). that is roughly a constant effect though, 3-2 > man > press > 2-3 when it comes to 3 point defense. that is going to be true pretty much in every situation, although i'm sure there are extreme outliers.
the fatigue issue you raise is a fair one, a short team will probably shoot worse against a press team. however, that is universally true, it affects 2s and 3s in a similar capacity. so, would that affect a +/- setting? i don't think so, although i guess i can't totally rule it out.
what i can say with confidence though, is over the course of a season, there are barely enough games against a single defense (on average) to really start to draw even broad conclusions. what was stated above about the sets, that is a known, and trying to deduce if that applies to a particular team by looking at a half dozen to dozen games, it seems far less accurate than just applying the knowledge of the sets generically. besides, as i mentioned, you'd have to account for an insane amount of stuff - player defensive abilities, +/- played, fatigue, many of which are extremely complex factors to account for and gauge, in and of themselves.
so, sure, you might play a +/- different based on the set you play - in fact, i really hope you would. but, you play that set against anyone, so the way you make that adjustment should be basically static against the opponent, no? what i believe you were/are saying is, that you should examine how you opponent did against, say, m2m (when you play m2m) to assess their performance. i guess if you are saying something like, see if they played all man teams, and if so, that is dragging down their fg% and then you should assume they are actually better than they appear - i could see that, although it seems very slight for how difficult it is to measure (have to open ever pbp basically) - and, that would have nothing to do with the set you play, that would be relative to that team, only.
really, i most want to know if i am understanding you correctly. are you suggesting that if you play m2m, you should consider opponents' performance against m2m specifically and use that to evaluate your +/-? feels a little silly to argue against something when i am now doubting i know for sure what you even suggested. i thought i knew then, but on re-read later when i made the above post, i actually wasn't even sure at that time! if that is your case, i think you actually left out the strongest argument you have, but i don't want to ramble on if i am on the wrong topic!
8/1/2016 11:05 PM (edited)