There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

2-3 zone kills you LP scorers and guards with no lp/per that rely on ath/spd/bh alone

I'm assuming you lose because you shoot less efficiently, get out rebounded, and give up more FTA against zone teams

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

lol. Who told this to you?

Posted by the0nlyis on 7/26/2016 6:38:00 PM (view original):
2-3 zone kills you LP scorers and guards with no lp/per that rely on ath/spd/bh alone

I'm assuming you lose because you shoot less efficiently, get out rebounded, and give up more FTA against zone teams

Guess I need Potter and Williams to come up big tonight!

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

Pretty sound logic to me!

And if you're reading the play by play of the game spread cheese while taking a dump, you have an 85% chance to cover your next game by at least 4.5 points.

I have the data.

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

lol. Who told this to you?

Its a seceret!

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

frankly, you would have to observe this for 100 seasons to draw a conclusion, and you've played what, like 5? i'll save you 5 years of waiting - the answer is no. there is no built-in random game spread cheese, just bad sets of dice rolls that occur naturally.

here's something similar you could use instead: if you get your horrible set of dice rolls in the regular season, rejoice! because even though it has no impact on your odds of getting it in the post season - if you only get 1 that season, then you didn't get it in the post season, and that is far, far better than getting your horrible dice rolls in the post season, when it really counts.

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

i am not familiar with your teams, and only have this season to review. but, i don't really have to look, to ask you the one simple question that matters. do you take a lot of 3s - is your offense heavily 3 point dependent or heavily 2 point dependent, or neither?

if your answer is: i don't really build around 3 point scoring, i might have 1 prolific 3 point scorer on a team but mostly i focus on lp or 2 point shooting guards - then yes. the 2-3 zone is the best 2 point defense and the worst 3 point defense in the game. that wouldn't explain a huge spread, but it is a real, meaningful factor.

if your answer is anything else, then no, its random.

edit: i guess you answered that ? pretty clearly in your post, so the answer is yes - no need to answer - consider it rhetorical. but, i was trying to answer the question for the universe of teams, i often try to answer specific questions generally so the answer is useful to more than the OP.

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 9:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

frankly, you would have to observe this for 100 seasons to draw a conclusion, and you've played what, like 5? i'll save you 5 years of waiting - the answer is no. there is no built-in random game spread cheese, just bad sets of dice rolls that occur naturally.

here's something similar you could use instead: if you get your horrible set of dice rolls in the regular season, rejoice! because even though it has no impact on your odds of getting it in the post season - if you only get 1 that season, then you didn't get it in the post season, and that is far, far better than getting your horrible dice rolls in the post season, when it really counts.

I would think 4 seasons would cover a conclusion! So you admit that there is a random spread dice roll but you say there isn't a built in algorithem that dictates your faith in the post season? I can find a random spread game in every schedule. Heck I found one today earlier gameplaning for a future team.

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 9:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 9:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

frankly, you would have to observe this for 100 seasons to draw a conclusion, and you've played what, like 5? i'll save you 5 years of waiting - the answer is no. there is no built-in random game spread cheese, just bad sets of dice rolls that occur naturally.

here's something similar you could use instead: if you get your horrible set of dice rolls in the regular season, rejoice! because even though it has no impact on your odds of getting it in the post season - if you only get 1 that season, then you didn't get it in the post season, and that is far, far better than getting your horrible dice rolls in the post season, when it really counts.

I would think 4 seasons would cover a conclusion! So you admit that there is a random spread dice roll but you say there isn't a built in algorithem that dictates your faith in the post season? I can find a random spread game in every schedule. Heck I found one today earlier gameplaning for a future team.

every coin flip is random, and over a series of say 1000 coin flips, you will, on average, get 500 heads and 500 tails (with a fair coin). but sometimes, you'll get 400 heads and 600 tails, which is an EXTREME outlier. think of an HD game as 1000 coin flips. if your team is a lot better, you might only need say 460 heads to win. anything more, you win, anything less, you lose.

the above is a simplification but it is actually REALLY similar to how the game actually works, how you actually win or lose. so, i am acknowledging than in any random process (such as flipping coins, or a single HD game), of course there are extreme results. that is inherent by definition. however, independence of results is also inherent in the definition - so if you get a HORRIBLE outcome in game 1, you aren't immune in game 2. you are just likely to get that horrible outcome in game 2 as you would be if you got a fantastic outcome in game 1. its just like the guy who is a sports fan and believes the team will lose if he doesn't watch on tv. its fun to be superstitious, but we should all be able to recognize, that superstition we enjoy is 100% not real. i often post about superstitious stuff in HD (the last 3 titles i won, i got upset in the CT! and now i won the CT, so i am screwed!). i do that because superstitions are fun, and believing them or not has no impact on the results. just like it can't help you, it can't hurt you - as long as you don't adjust your behavior in response to that superstition. then, it absolutely can hurt you (think about a superstition that you have to drink 10 beers for your team to win - that will be hazardous to your health. similarly, if you don't think you can win a NT because you just lost the CT, and you try less, it will hurt you). so, know that i am not knocking superstition - im just saying, it has no positive impact, its not real, its just in your / my / whoever's head.

in short, bad dice rolls happen, but they aren't programmed into the game beyond what is inherent in rolling dice or flipping coins. so, you can't draw any information about future chances of a bad dice roll, from when the first dice roll happened. however, it is true that on average, in a season, you'll probably have 1 really bad and 1 really good dice roll, just because you play enough games and there should naturally be outliers. what i'm saying is, its all math, no hand-wavy superstition or funky built in code from the game designers to cause upsets at particular time.

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 9:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 9:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

frankly, you would have to observe this for 100 seasons to draw a conclusion, and you've played what, like 5? i'll save you 5 years of waiting - the answer is no. there is no built-in random game spread cheese, just bad sets of dice rolls that occur naturally.

here's something similar you could use instead: if you get your horrible set of dice rolls in the regular season, rejoice! because even though it has no impact on your odds of getting it in the post season - if you only get 1 that season, then you didn't get it in the post season, and that is far, far better than getting your horrible dice rolls in the post season, when it really counts.

I would think 4 seasons would cover a conclusion! So you admit that there is a random spread dice roll but you say there isn't a built in algorithem that dictates your faith in the post season? I can find a random spread game in every schedule. Heck I found one today earlier gameplaning for a future team.

Wardo, your inner Alex Jones is showing again. There is NO algorithm designed to cause a team to have one weird upset every season. Yes, he admitted that there is a random dice roll because the game engine uses a..........hold on tight.........ready?.........a RANDOM number generator to help determine what happens during the game. It uses the same RNG for every team in every game all season. Get ready to have your head explode...it even uses it for YOUR team. Whhhaaaaatttt?

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 9:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 9:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/26/2016 9:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 7/26/2016 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm testing a new theory I have in mind. If you get the random game spread cheese early then you are poised to be in the post season. If you get the random spread cheese late then you are a bust in the post season.

frankly, you would have to observe this for 100 seasons to draw a conclusion, and you've played what, like 5? i'll save you 5 years of waiting - the answer is no. there is no built-in random game spread cheese, just bad sets of dice rolls that occur naturally.

here's something similar you could use instead: if you get your horrible set of dice rolls in the regular season, rejoice! because even though it has no impact on your odds of getting it in the post season - if you only get 1 that season, then you didn't get it in the post season, and that is far, far better than getting your horrible dice rolls in the post season, when it really counts.

I would think 4 seasons would cover a conclusion! So you admit that there is a random spread dice roll but you say there isn't a built in algorithem that dictates your faith in the post season? I can find a random spread game in every schedule. Heck I found one today earlier gameplaning for a future team.

every coin flip is random, and over a series of say 1000 coin flips, you will, on average, get 500 heads and 500 tails (with a fair coin). but sometimes, you'll get 400 heads and 600 tails, which is an EXTREME outlier. think of an HD game as 1000 coin flips. if your team is a lot better, you might only need say 460 heads to win. anything more, you win, anything less, you lose.

the above is a simplification but it is actually REALLY similar to how the game actually works, how you actually win or lose. so, i am acknowledging than in any random process (such as flipping coins, or a single HD game), of course there are extreme results. that is inherent by definition. however, independence of results is also inherent in the definition - so if you get a HORRIBLE outcome in game 1, you aren't immune in game 2. you are just likely to get that horrible outcome in game 2 as you would be if you got a fantastic outcome in game 1. its just like the guy who is a sports fan and believes the team will lose if he doesn't watch on tv. its fun to be superstitious, but we should all be able to recognize, that superstition we enjoy is 100% not real. i often post about superstitious stuff in HD (the last 3 titles i won, i got upset in the CT! and now i won the CT, so i am screwed!). i do that because superstitions are fun, and believing them or not has no impact on the results. just like it can't help you, it can't hurt you - as long as you don't adjust your behavior in response to that superstition. then, it absolutely can hurt you (think about a superstition that you have to drink 10 beers for your team to win - that will be hazardous to your health. similarly, if you don't think you can win a NT because you just lost the CT, and you try less, it will hurt you). so, know that i am not knocking superstition - im just saying, it has no positive impact, its not real, its just in your / my / whoever's head.

in short, bad dice rolls happen, but they aren't programmed into the game beyond what is inherent in rolling dice or flipping coins. so, you can't draw any information about future chances of a bad dice roll, from when the first dice roll happened. however, it is true that on average, in a season, you'll probably have 1 really bad and 1 really good dice roll, just because you play enough games and there should naturally be outliers. what i'm saying is, its all math, no hand-wavy superstition or funky built in code from the game designers to cause upsets at particular time.

That's a pretty good summary of how things work but I'll remind you as you reminded me before...specifically consider your target audience. Might be too complicated. Just trying to help. You're a level, maybe two, too high on the complication scale Gill.

yeah, i can't argue with you there. i was actually pretty confident of that when i said it, but ward hopefully gets the 500 dice roll out of 1000 analogy.

ward, what i'm saying is, yes there are terrible outcomes - but they just come just for the same reason you sometimes see 400 heads out of 1000 dice rolls. its really unlikely to get 400/1000, but it definitely can happen to you sometimes. maybe it happens once in one season, maybe its zero times the next two seasons, and then twice the next season. but, that is all just random, when it happens. so no, you can't say, if it happens early, my post season will be good, and visa versa.

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/26/2016 6:31:00 PM (view original):
There is this team that in my time ive been at U of Indianapolis I just cant beat! I have been better than them every season in RPI (not 1 actually, 135 to 134 who cares though) and I am 3-6 against them 2 of those wins in the UMSL 5-22 season. Is this just random game spread cheese or is there something about the zone that hurts teams like mine? Until this year, I have also been bad against Emy's zone team Ky Wes and am a total 2-8 with the two wins being this year mainly because Ky Wes couldn't buy a three! My best guess is the type of scorers on my team (Ath+BH guys like this, this and this along with elite LP guys like this, this, this, this and this) have a tough time scoring against the 2-3 zone these teams utilize. Or maybe it is just random game spread cheese.

I'm just spit balling here but the KY Wesleyan problem/bad record thing could maybe, might be just a little bit because Emy is a halfway decent coach in his own right and someone who "usually" keeps a pretty solid roster from year to year. Might not have ANY connection to it at all though, like I said I'm just tossing ideas out there (wink, wink).