D-IAA Playoff Thread Topic

Initial analysis of D-IAA playoffs
Bracket Avg ELO Std Dev
North 1917 182
South 1874 126
East 1929 94
West 2023 157


What do these numbers mean?
Strongest region (highest average ELO) - West: This one was a no-brainer. Just looking at this bracket, I immediately knew it was the strongest one there's probably been in years. It's nearly a full 100 ELO higher than the next strongest bracket. That's pretty insane, considering the other brackets all fall within about a 50 ELO range. If just using these numbers from this season, it thinks this is a far enough outlier where you wouldn't see a bracket this strong for another 3-4 seasons.
Weakest region (lowest average ELO) - South: Howard's ELO carrying over from previous seasons drags this bracket down quite a bit, despite having a stellar season this season
Most parity (lowest standard deviation ELO) - East: This basically means this bracket is the most "up for grabs." This will be the hardest bracket to do predictions, since the teams are more close to each other in ELO
Least parity (highest standard deviation ELO) - North: This should be the easiest region to predict. It also typically means the top heavy teams will advance the most easily. You can probably pencil in Tennessee Tech into the Final Four.
7/29/2016 3:58 PM
Based on ELO rankings, ELO predicted 30 of the 32 teams that would get in.

Teams that got snubbed this year:
Marist (ELO - 31st, WIS - 38th): Marist had a very impressive year, with very large margin of victories over many teams. They had 4 losses, and all four came versus top 15 WIS ranked teams. The committee was too harsh on them, in my opinion.
Villanova (ELO - 32nd, WIS - 46th): Looking at the schedule, I can't totally disagree with the committee leaving the Wildcats out. They lost 6 games to top 30 teams, but were competitive in 4 of them. Their best win was over WIS 53rd ranked Massachusetts. Some of this ELO rating is still leftover from their amazing run 2 years ago.

Teams that shouldn't be in:
Dayton (ELO - 38th, WIS - 31st): Frankly, their resume looks better than Villanova, so it's hard to really argue this. They went 2-4 vs top 40 WIS teams. I'd call that a bubble playoff team. I can't say I'm too against them getting in.
Austin Peay (ELO - 41st, WIS - 32nd): They won vs bubble team Florida International in non-conference in OT, which was the difference for both teams' fates. Ever since then they've gotten blown out by good competition, including a 66-6 drubbing at the hands of fellow 8-seed, Jacksonville.
7/29/2016 4:15 PM
thanks for quantifying the way the eyes popped out when I saw my bracket
7/29/2016 5:40 PM
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