Posted by sjpoker on 8/2/2016 8:33:00 PM (view original):
No surplus? Looking past the top 3, I see Basabe, Hernandez, Chavez, Dubon, Longhi, and that isn't including their pitchers. That's surplus, and those guys have value.
For Pedroia, Just when are you expecting Moncada to 'replace' Pedroia? He ain't going anywhere. I think he's signed til 2020. And isn't he like a top 5-7 2B in WAR?
I think Shaw has a .800+ OPS in .500+ career ABs. Thats not production I think they are in any rush to replace.
So for Moncana and Devers, I really don't see them getting a shot until either Pedroia gets traded or Shaw stumbles.
At this point you're looking fairly far into the future, it's hard to say what your team needs are going to be 3-4 years down the road.
I guess it's just a different philosophy. If I'm the GM of a young and talented team, I want to hang on to my future and not sell out for any one given season when I have many bright years coming. As I think I said earlier, in prospect-for-veteran trades, the team trading the prospects usually gives up a lot more than they get in return for the certainty of getting that known quantity. If my outlook for 2017, 18, 19, 20, etc. is as good as the Red Sox outlook is, I don't want to give up a ton of future value for less substantial current value.
From the same perspective, I felt the Cubs' Chapman trade was ridiculous. Even if they'd given up substantially less I wouldn't like it. They look like a team that has many more good seasons coming. No reason to trade huge future value for half a season of a closer. Especially when they already had a very solid bullpen. And to actually make multiple bullpen trades... feels ridiculous to me. ESPN gave the Cubs front office an A+ grade for their trade deadline activity. I couldn't disagree more. I think that's based on some very shallow thinking. It doesn't have to be "we're contending this year, we have to buy" if we're going to be
at least as good for the foreseeable future. The Joe Smith trade was more reasonable. Give up a mediocre prospect for a mediocre arm. Nothing wrong with that. But giving up a prospect of the caliber of Torres + more for a half-season of any reliever is a bad deal for a team that's going to be good when Torres could be contributing. I really don't like Vogelbach for Montgomery, either, but if the Cubs didn't really buy into Vogelbach then it's not so bad. If they did buy into him, the truly bold move would have been to trade Rizzo and a prospect or 2 for a top starting pitcher in the offseason.