At this rate...Texas. But it's pretty wide open.

I'd bet on Cleveland first, then Boston.

My question then is how much better than Boston is Cleveland?

They're not. I don't get why people are still so enamored with the Sox as favourites. Are they in the mix? Absolutely. But nothing clearly differentiates them from the likes of Cleveland, Texas, Toronto or Baltimore.

In the postseason, Cleveland is a lot better than Boston. Moreover, nothing Boston could have done would have evened the scales. Right now Cleveland has 4 aces + Tomlin, who's also pitching pretty well this year. Boston was never going to get 2 more top-tier arms, which is what I think they'd need to be a favorite in a series against Cleveland. If they could have gotten Sale it would make it close, but I think still favor Cleveland. And they would have given up what? Mocada + Benintendi if they were lucky? I feel like the White Sox would have tried to hold out for one of those guys + Betts? And then a few of the younger prospects on top of that. To gain a few % points better chance to go to the World Series this year as a solid underdog to the Cubs or Nationals? Not worth it. If they get the Giants, or a Kershaw-free Dodgers, it might start to feel worth it. But you can't predict that, and you probably wouldn't want to base your team planning on the assumption that it won't be the Cubs or Nationals in the WS.

You said the Indians are a lot better than the Dead Sox. What is their head to head record this year, and how many runs have the Sox lineup scored against the Cleveland staff?

Beats me. I don't really care, either. Just like a postseason series, regular season series are small sample sizes. But I'm going to pick series probabilities based on the strengths and weaknesses of the teams, not the regular season head-to-head.

Last year the Royals had losing regular season records against both the Astros and the Blue Jays before they beat them in the postseason. The Mets did beat the Dodgers in the season series, but they were 0-7 against the Cubs. They swept the Cubs in the NLCS.

In a postseason series I take the team that can run out Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, and Bauer if they want to use a 4th starter.

All very good pitchers, and all with exactly 4 IP of post-season experience. Not sure how you expect them to suddenly dominate a bunch of teams they'll be facing with - a lot - more post-season experience.

Going back to whether you trade prospects for players or not, From 2012 to 2016 Chris Sale has done the following:
Pitched 936 IP
Produced 67 wins
2.98 ERA and an ERA+ of 136
Averaged 10Ks/9
Produced 4 top 6 finishes in Cy Young voting.

At age 27, his contract calls for -
What remains of $9.5 million this season
$12 million in 2017
$12.5 million in 2018 (with team option $1 million buyout)
$15 million in 2019 (with team option $1 million buyout)

So basically 2 1/2 years from age 27 through 30 with something in the neighborhood of $18 million guaranteed and a total of $40 million of 3 1/2 years.

How much is a player like that worth?

He's a known quantity. Mocanda and Benintendi are not. So while I still might not make that trade, I think it doesn't seem like a 'loser' to me wither.

Who sez Chicago would do that?

I just wanted to see what dahs thought Sale is worth. Curious to see if he thinks Mocanda and Benintendi are worth Sale.

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/5/2016 12:54:00 PM (view original):
The Phillies situation ca. 2009-2011 was a lot different from the Red Sox current situation. In their place I probably would have sold on my valuable prospects, too, though in full knowledge that with an aging, overpaid roster and no near-ready prospects left I'd be heading for something like the wall they ran into a couple years later. The Phillies' key players (Howard, Utley, Werth, Rollins, Ruiz, Ibanez, Halladay, Lee) were already in their 30s with several also approaching free agency. IIRC Hamels was literally the only significant contributor to that team who wasn't over 30. Their window was very narrow. The Red Sox are very young. The only major contributors to that team over 30 are Big Papi, Pedroia, David Price (who is exactly 30 and a pitcher), and maybe Steven Wright this year (31, also should have lots of shelf life left if he's really this good). Their window is wide open; the back end of it really isn't even in sight. Those are radically different scenarios.

A better analog to the Phillies would be a team like Detroit or Seattle. Seattle wound up just a little too far out to buy, but Detroit would have bought if they had any prospects left. And that would be the right thing to do. In 3 years Boston should be one of the best teams in baseball. Detroit will probably be where the Phillies were in 2013 or so. Detroit has nothing to save for. Boston and the Cubs have everything to save for.

Just wanna add something here. Al Avila is like the opposite of Dave Dombrowski. He was never going to trade, even if we did have prospects. He kinda just did his mandatory check-in, but nothing was ever serious. And with Jordan Zimmerman, and JD Martinez coming off the DL, there just wasn't anyone on the trade block that could really improve the Tigers other than Lucroy (who was gonna cost a huge package, more than the Tigers can afford if they tried) and some relievers (every team asked for Fulmer, Norris, and/or Boyd, our trio for the future). The asking price was just too high this year, and Al Avila was already confident with the team he assembled in spring training.

So he never had a motive to buy this year. Standing pat was the right thing to do.


on another note, SJPoker, ur a Phillies fan right?

If you are, would you have accepted this trade?
Steven Moya and Jairo Labourt for Hellickson

This was one trade I was proposing, and I may be overvaluing my own prospects, but this was one I really liked without giving up too much.

Sure why not? Hellickson was supposed to be a 1 year guy. Now I think he'll take that $17 million. Not sure that's what the want.

Moya and Labourt are a decent return.

That does sound like a fair trade for all involved. Hellickson is not an ace, he shouldn't be bringing back ace-caliber prospects. Not sure why the Philllies didn't move him.