Man, the Red Sox really screwed the pooch. All those prospects they can deal, and they did nothing, while every other team in the AL East made moves. I guess they think that Porcello and David Price are going to bounce back?

Not so bold prediction: Sox miss the playoffs.

In all fairness, Porcello is ripping it up right now. What exactly does he need to bounce back from?

I agree with you on everything else though.

Honestly, I don't think the Orioles or Blue Jays got all that much better. If Steve Pearce actually continues to OPS .900, he's the best piece added by the AL East at the deadline. But I doubt he can do that. And let's be frank, Upton hasn't been a game-changing player for a long, long time. And it's certainly not as if Liriano or Miley are paradigm-shifting arms, either.

When you trade prospects for players, you usually come out on the short end of the stick in terms of total future production. The Orioles and Blue Jays are more dependent on older players or players on their way out in the next season or two, so maybe it makes sense for them to go all in for this season. The Jays are the oldest team in the AL. The Red Sox have a very strong core of young players and they can be good for a long time. There was no practical reason for them to sacrifice that future for one season. Sentimental reasons with it being Big Papi's last year maybe. But no practical reason. I think they did the right thing and applaud them for having the self-control to accept potentially missing the postseason this year to retain their talent going forward.

The Red Sox are still the most talented team in the division anyway...

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/2/2016 2:12:00 PM (view original):
The Red Sox are still the most talented team in the division anyway...

Based on what? Toronto's rotation is way better and Baltimore's bullpen is way better. Boston's offense produces the most runs, but O's and Jays are both Top 10. I don't see how you give Boston the nod as the best team in the division.

Posted by Jtpsops on 8/2/2016 3:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/2/2016 2:12:00 PM (view original):
The Red Sox are still the most talented team in the division anyway...

Based on what? Toronto's rotation is way better and Baltimore's bullpen is way better. Boston's offense produces the most runs, but O's and Jays are both Top 10. I don't see how you give Boston the nod as the best team in the division.

I agree with dahs. The Sox lineup is so packed with young talent. And if you look at the pitching from a talent perspective within the division, they're up there too.

My whole issue is that the Sox have a lot of surplus minors talent. Seriously, Most of their young position players - Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, etc ain't going anywhere. Where are those players going to slot in? They couldn't move some pieces to pick up some SP help? Some top end late inning relief help?

If I was a Dead Sox fan I'd be ******.

There are possibilities. Benintendi can play left. Ortiz is gone next year, so Ramirez can DH, Shaw can play first. I don't know if Moncada has ever played third, but I'm sure it's something that could be explored.

If they work out real well, I think the Sox would be happy to have Benintendi and Devers replace Shaw and Holt in the starting lineup. Moncada will replace Pedroia. Swihart can be the DH when he comes back, or play 1B and push Hanley to DH. Or catch. Nobody else is really that close. I mean, who's the next guy to the bigs? Maybe Sam Travis? Hanley may be on his way out before he's ready. I don't actually see all that much surplus here. They have the potential to have an above average player at every position in a year or 2, and everybody but Hanley under 30. That's pretty impressive. I guess you could call it a surplus. But unless you like Holt and Shaw a lot more than me, there aren't a lot of extra people in the picture. Unless Pablo gets unbroken...

No surplus? Looking past the top 3, I see Basabe, Hernandez, Chavez, Dubon, Longhi, and that isn't including their pitchers. That's surplus, and those guys have value.

For Pedroia, Just when are you expecting Moncada to 'replace' Pedroia? He ain't going anywhere. I think he's signed til 2020. And isn't he like a top 5-7 2B in WAR?

I think Shaw has a .800+ OPS in .500+ career ABs. Thats not production I think they are in any rush to replace.

So for Moncana and Devers, I really don't see them getting a shot until either Pedroia gets traded or Shaw stumbles.

Nice acquisition in Abad...not.

Posted by sjpoker on 8/2/2016 8:33:00 PM (view original):
No surplus? Looking past the top 3, I see Basabe, Hernandez, Chavez, Dubon, Longhi, and that isn't including their pitchers. That's surplus, and those guys have value.

For Pedroia, Just when are you expecting Moncada to 'replace' Pedroia? He ain't going anywhere. I think he's signed til 2020. And isn't he like a top 5-7 2B in WAR?

I think Shaw has a .800+ OPS in .500+ career ABs. Thats not production I think they are in any rush to replace.

So for Moncana and Devers, I really don't see them getting a shot until either Pedroia gets traded or Shaw stumbles.

At this point you're looking fairly far into the future, it's hard to say what your team needs are going to be 3-4 years down the road.

I guess it's just a different philosophy. If I'm the GM of a young and talented team, I want to hang on to my future and not sell out for any one given season when I have many bright years coming. As I think I said earlier, in prospect-for-veteran trades, the team trading the prospects usually gives up a lot more than they get in return for the certainty of getting that known quantity. If my outlook for 2017, 18, 19, 20, etc. is as good as the Red Sox outlook is, I don't want to give up a ton of future value for less substantial current value.

From the same perspective, I felt the Cubs' Chapman trade was ridiculous. Even if they'd given up substantially less I wouldn't like it. They look like a team that has many more good seasons coming. No reason to trade huge future value for half a season of a closer. Especially when they already had a very solid bullpen. And to actually make multiple bullpen trades... feels ridiculous to me. ESPN gave the Cubs front office an A+ grade for their trade deadline activity. I couldn't disagree more. I think that's based on some very shallow thinking. It doesn't have to be "we're contending this year, we have to buy" if we're going to be at least as good for the foreseeable future. The Joe Smith trade was more reasonable. Give up a mediocre prospect for a mediocre arm. Nothing wrong with that. But giving up a prospect of the caliber of Torres + more for a half-season of any reliever is a bad deal for a team that's going to be good when Torres could be contributing. I really don't like Vogelbach for Montgomery, either, but if the Cubs didn't really buy into Vogelbach then it's not so bad. If they did buy into him, the truly bold move would have been to trade Rizzo and a prospect or 2 for a top starting pitcher in the offseason.

Agree. Realistically, any game that Chapman appears in the playoffs is a game the Cubs were probably already going to win.

The difference between a great reliever and a good reliever is small.

Disagree on needing to include Rizzo in a deal for a top flight SP. Some combo of Schwarber/Torres*/Baez would probably get it done for Sale. Maybe less if they wanted to take Greinke's contract.


*hypothetical world where they didn't trade him for Chapman

Posted by bad_luck on 8/3/2016 3:49:00 PM (view original):
Agree. Realistically, any game that Chapman appears in the playoffs is a game the Cubs were probably already going to win.

The difference between a great reliever and a good reliever is small.

You're missing the fact it shortens games. It's not just about the ninth. It makes their 8th inning stronger, their seventh inning stronger, etc. Moves everyone in the pen up an inning. Now, if it comes to it in the playoffs, they only need 5-6 innings from their starters.

If you think they gave up too much, that's a valid argument. But the trade improves them for more than just the 9th inning.

And having just watched the Orioles the last 2 months without O'Day, I can tell you that one guy can make an entire pen better. The O's felt lost in the 7th inning for a while there.

BL is being retarded again. Rivera was a HUGE factor for the Yanks for the exact reason you mention. A great reliever changes how both teams play. A good reliever doesn't.