With the release of the RPI numbers today I think it's good to see how each team is standing at the moment starting with the East division.
Kenyon-trophaeum (7-1) RPI 61 SOS 201. Kenyon so far has been solid if unspectacular, their one loss was to a solid Cabrini team, and otherwise they've cruised, but as their SOS shows Kenyon hasn't played anyone particularly challenging so far. Still getting the early victories is quite useful in a strong conference like the NCAC, and Kenyon has set themselves up well for conference play. No one player seems to show any spectacular play, they've been solid with no standouts look for Ainsworth to step up in conference play to provide some offense cause Kenyon will be facing greater challenges to their defense in conference play. I think Kenyon is better than their current RPI, but I suspect their RPI isn't going to get much better with both of their next out of conference games being 200 RPI or below.
Oberlin-warrior0510 (6-2) RPI 162 SOS 362. Oberlin is only one game behind Kenyon in the East, but before we get to congratulating them they also have the second lowest SOS in the entire conference. They however have for the most part won those games, and will most likely end non conference with a 300+ SOS and an 8-2 record, something some of our harder scheduled fellows may want to take a lesson from (for those who don't get it I'm talking about myself). The true test for Oberlin will come early in the conference schedule as their first games are home games versus Wooster and Kenyon, if Oberlin can win one of those games then I can see them as a threat for the postseason, but if they lose it could snowball and send Oberlin to the bottom of the league. It's a tenuous situation, and Oberlin will be challenged more in their first couple conference games then their entire non conference combined. Player wise Laduke and Plemmons have impressed, and if they can replicate their success against tougher opponents Oberlin will have a nice duo, as long as Laduke doesn't keep shooting 3's.
Allegheny-shawnfucious (6-2) RPI 155 SOS 153. Allegheny's RPI does not reflect this team's play with their two losses against the 31st and 32nd RPI teams, with the loss to Brooklyn being especially devastating. However their wins in the rest of their games makes me think Allegheny has what it takes to rise again to the top of the East division. Their next game against Neumann will be a telling point to the season so far for Allegheny, can their offense show up when needed in a critical home game versus a tough opponent? My other question is how will the Allegheny players deal with playing an away game to open conference play versus Earlham? Allegheny has, and will play, ever game out of conference on their home court. How shawnfucious pulled off that scheduling feat is beyond me which just contrasts them with Wooster's all road schedule. Allegheny will go as far as their high scoring bench will take them, and I think that'll be at least the number 2 spot in their division.
Earlham-jeffdbrown (5-3) RPI 106 SOS 108. Earlham is hard to get a read on so far, so I believe conference play will be telling for this squad. Are they a real threat to the rest of the conference, or will their inexperience show when they're facing tough opponents nearly every day? With only one senior it's hard to feel that Earlham can take down a team like Wooster aka the class of the NCAC, but with good game planning and a little luck from the sim engine Earlham could spoil the day for a lot of middle of the run teams of which their seem to be many this season. Grabbing a postseason spot is obviously the ultimate goal for Earlham, but with such a young team the future looks good if they can just stay competitive throughout this season.
Hiram-SimAI (3-5) RPI 203 SOS 110. I'm not the biggest fan of writing about SimAI teams, and Hiram is just your prototypical sim team. Don't let their position above Denison in the division fool you Hiram is going to finish the season on the bottom of the East. They've played some tough opponents, and have never really competed with them, which makes me think that the program in their second season of sim coaching may sink even lower than last season 0-16 in conference is a real possibility.
Denison-kmfloyd (2-6) RPI 140 SOS 38. At the bottom of the East we find Denison who has played some of the top team in the nation so far, and played at least one of them very well. Denison is a better team than the rpi might suggest, but they need some turnaround quickly, and once conference play starts it may be hard to find. Denison remains one of the teams that hasn't adopted the easy non conference schedule to get wins to prepare for a tough in conference run, and this season they've been burned by it. Denison needs to find wins in conference fast or this might turn into a lost season. I do not however believe that they will finish in this bottom slot at the end of the season, and with no stand out teams in the NCAC apart from Wooster Denison could go on a run and make some noise provided the engine is a little more favorable to Denison in conference than out.
#3 Wooster-ukula (8-0) RPI 23 SOS 121. Wooster is doing their usual out of conference tune up on the road before they're prepared to come back and wreck havoc in conference, and boy is this a good team. Offensively a powerhouse with 4 players averaging in double digits, and a solid defensive team with a weaker than usual NCAC I wouldn't be surprised if Wooster headed into the conference tournament undefeated, and I still wouldn't be surprised if they emerged from the tournament undefeated either. Wooster is a national title contender, and have played like it so far, though we encourage ukula not to look to far ahead because a surprise team could rise and challenge them look out for the away game against Wabash early on to get a feel for how good Wooster can really be.
Ohio Wesleyan-zorzii (7-1) RPI 108 SOS 292. OWU has done everything expected of it during its non conference games setting itself up nicely, but holding together a roster that's comprised of a lot of underclassmen will be difficult. OWU is going to want to slow down the pace as much as they can, we're talking Wisconsin in the real world at their slowest point, that'll give the high defense OWU team chances to keep the game how they like it, and it's a hard system to beat without highly skilled offensive players. If OWU can't control the pace though they may struggle, but I feel confident that this is a national tournament team they just probably won't be equaling last season's elite eight run, let alone the final four run two seasons ago.
Wabash-indyrider123 (7-1) RPI 24 SOS 102. As indyrider123 predicted Wabash's winning streak ended against Southwestern last night, but it was a good run, and a bounce back game against Martin Luther tonight could place Wabash as the biggest competition towards complete Wooster domination. If things go right Wabash will entire their home game against Wooster 12-1 having run a gambit of road games to open conference, but starting with Martin Luther tonight Wabash could see a turn in fortune (no pressure indy). This is a team I trust to make the NT though, and one I think could make some noise, which is good, maybe even a sweet sixteen appearance with a favorable draw, but I'm getting ahead of myself. Wabash needs to prove they can win even when Koralewski has an off night, if they can do that their position as one of the top NCAC teams this season will be secure.
Wittenberg-hugodls (6-2) RPI 145 SOS 260. Hugodls is sighing with relief as Wittenberg handled their last two wins by double digits rather than the nailbiters that characterized the first few games of the season, and if this trend continues Wittenberg could be just starting up. They could however be held up against teams in the NCAC who will have higher ATH and DEF than Wittenberg by sometimes significant margins. Now I remind the reader that ATH and DEF is not everything, though mfnmeyers has been trying to disprove that point for years now, but Wittenberg will need to show that they can adapt to a higher level of play before they can seriously discuss the postseason. With 6 in conference games against the likes of Wooster, OWU, and Wabash they'd come ready to play their best ball even before crunch time.
Grove City- SimAI (6-2) RPI 185 SOS 372. Like with Oberlin their record has been inflated by an easy SOS, but make no mistake in putting Grove City in the same category as Hiram, they are significantly better than their sim counterparts in the East. Do I see them really challenging any of the top teams? No, but I also could see a couple scenarios where they finish in front of at least one or maybe two human coaches in the West especially if Thiel can't get themselves together. They are not to be overlooked by any means, but this may be the last season Grove City is truly threatening until they get another human coach.
Thiel- community25 (2-6) RPI 136 SOS 27. Thiel is reeling at the moment, and apparently the AD at Thiel has been getting numerous written letters demanding the resignation of head coach community25 after a horrible run of 6 straight losses. While it's true that every team Thiel has lost to has been in the top 100 of RPI teams, hence Thiel having played the toughest out of conference schedule in the NCAC so far, Thiel was expected to be better than this. Thiel is a better team than they've shown, but could keep digging themselves into a hole they can't climb out of, and need a great conference run to even sniff the postseason, let this be a lesson that while Thiel has gotten away with tough out of conference schedules in the past it may be time to put those to rest, or else tactical genius community25 could be forced out. That elite eight run seems a long ways away now.
NCAC as a whole has fell to 4th overall for conferences in D3 after spending the last couple seasons positioned at number 2. The hope is that this is just a down year for the conference in general, but the goal for this season should be to reclaim that number 3 spot. With a tougher conference schedule and maybe some emerging top teams alongside Wooster and Wabash it is quite possible in my opinion.
I plan on doing a write up after the first conference games, and then I'll see how I'm feeling after that for future writings. Thanks for reading.