Posted by jaydubz1515 on 8/28/2016 4:46:00 PM (view original):
His career average before this season through 4 ML seasons was high 3's, now hes like 4.03 I believe career average in his 5th, was hoping he could stay around 4 because he is improving each year, still a bit to go till he hits projected.
It takes a while for new players to understand player development. Don't rely on projections, new players put too much stock into projections and get burned by basing costly trade or FA decisions on them (unless you have $20M in adv. scouting, but that's a waste of money IMO anyway once you understand development patterns). Player development tends to go as follows:
Year signed/drafted - A few point increases per rating
2nd year: Biggest improvement - a given rating could go up as much as 12 points on high end prospects
3rd year: Decline in rate of ratings growth, tends to be around 1/2 of prior season
4th year: Elite studs still making some improvement, most players reach their ceiling in this year
5th year+: A point or two in a few categories if that.
Ratings declines can begin to show up in early 30's for position players, mid 30's for pitchers
That's a very rough rule of thumb and can vary greatly, but that's were I start from when evaluating a player. Older draftees/signees start out with higher ratings so development is reached sooner. Watch a player's growth in their second pro year. That is a good indicator of their ceiling. If a guy's vRH goes up 8 points in their 2nd year, he probably has somewhere close to 8 points left spread over the next few seasons. On the other hand, if it only goes up 3 points, he's already close to his ceiling.
Looks like you gave this guy $5.6M over 4 yrs without letting him reach arb. Without knowing your team's specific situation that seems a bit rash at first glance, especially if you were banking on more growth. Search the forums for more threads on player development, when and what kind of players to sign to long term contracts, etc. Lots of good info out there if you're willing to dig. So many facets of this game to learn, it can be overwhelming at first.
8/28/2016 6:15 PM (edited)