ESPN HOF ballot revealed. Topic

That's one of the things voters look at.  Are you denying that's the case?

1/13/2014 12:57 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 12:52:00 PM (view original):
Six top-3 CYA finishes, including two wins, for Glavine versus one top-3 CYA finishes and no wins for Mussina.

That says a lot about how they were perceived during their careers.  And how they're also being perceived now.

Mussina was a very, very good pitcher.  Nobody is questioning that. 

Glavine was better.
dah's question to tec:
Or is all you can do say "look, these other people agree with me.  I can't defend my position, but since these guys agreed with me I must be right."

tec's answer:
yep

1/13/2014 12:58 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 12:57:00 PM (view original):

That's one of the things voters look at.  Are you denying that's the case?

Are we talking about how voters vote? Or who is worthy?
1/13/2014 12:59 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/12/2014 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I think that it's more than just training and nutrition that separates great athletes from today and those from the past.
I've yet to be enlightened.    What separates them?
?????
You didn't respond to this so I saw no need in engaging in another argument with you:

Quote post by bad_luck on 1/10/2014 11:16:00 AM:
You shouldn't be using 30% then, because that's not what I was saying. I said you should round off the decimal. In each situation that will be a different percentage. It could be as high as 100%, as it is with 2013 David Freese and Alberto Callaspo or lower than 0.1%, as it is with Rickey Henderson's and Tom Seaver's career WAR. 

Please confirm that you understand so that we can stop referring to "30%." 

Regarding Raines and Biggio, WAR isn't everything. Stop acting like anyone ever insisted it was.
You made a stupid statement.    Back it up or shut the **** up. 
I'm pretty sure by not engaging you in the argument, I took the second option.

I don't think it's stupid but I'm not going to argue about it.

How about you shut the **** up and stop demanding to be enlightened? No one can help you with that.
Oh, it's a stupid statement.   You walking away from a potential argument pretty much indicates you know it's stupid.  You don't walk away from arguments.
1/13/2014 1:01 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/12/2014 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I think that it's more than just training and nutrition that separates great athletes from today and those from the past.
I've yet to be enlightened.    What separates them?
?????
You didn't respond to this so I saw no need in engaging in another argument with you:

Quote post by bad_luck on 1/10/2014 11:16:00 AM:
You shouldn't be using 30% then, because that's not what I was saying. I said you should round off the decimal. In each situation that will be a different percentage. It could be as high as 100%, as it is with 2013 David Freese and Alberto Callaspo or lower than 0.1%, as it is with Rickey Henderson's and Tom Seaver's career WAR. 

Please confirm that you understand so that we can stop referring to "30%." 

Regarding Raines and Biggio, WAR isn't everything. Stop acting like anyone ever insisted it was.
You made a stupid statement.    Back it up or shut the **** up. 
I'm pretty sure by not engaging you in the argument, I took the second option.

I don't think it's stupid but I'm not going to argue about it.

How about you shut the **** up and stop demanding to be enlightened? No one can help you with that.
Oh, it's a stupid statement.   You walking away from a potential argument pretty much indicates you know it's stupid.  You don't walk away from arguments.
I love to argue. I love to argue about baseball, politics, and science. Mostly things where there is data to guide us towards a right answer.

This potential argument, though, goes nowhere.

I say that I think that we are boiling down the very top 0.01% of athletes from a larger population than we were in the early 1900s, that I think that genetically we are bigger/stronger/faster before we factor in training and nutrition and so on.

You say nah ah.

And on and on and on and on and on.

Even if I "win', you'll just ignore it and change the subject...see WAR/30% above. So I'm stepping away from it.
1/13/2014 1:09 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/12/2014 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I think that it's more than just training and nutrition that separates great athletes from today and those from the past.
I've yet to be enlightened.    What separates them?
?????
You didn't respond to this so I saw no need in engaging in another argument with you:

Quote post by bad_luck on 1/10/2014 11:16:00 AM:
You shouldn't be using 30% then, because that's not what I was saying. I said you should round off the decimal. In each situation that will be a different percentage. It could be as high as 100%, as it is with 2013 David Freese and Alberto Callaspo or lower than 0.1%, as it is with Rickey Henderson's and Tom Seaver's career WAR. 

Please confirm that you understand so that we can stop referring to "30%." 

Regarding Raines and Biggio, WAR isn't everything. Stop acting like anyone ever insisted it was.
You made a stupid statement.    Back it up or shut the **** up. 
I'm pretty sure by not engaging you in the argument, I took the second option.

I don't think it's stupid but I'm not going to argue about it.

How about you shut the **** up and stop demanding to be enlightened? No one can help you with that.
Oh, it's a stupid statement.   You walking away from a potential argument pretty much indicates you know it's stupid.  You don't walk away from arguments.
I love to argue. I love to argue about baseball, politics, and science. Mostly things where there is data to guide us towards a right answer.

This potential argument, though, goes nowhere.

I say that I think that we are boiling down the very top 0.01% of athletes from a larger population than we were in the early 1900s, that I think that genetically we are bigger/stronger/faster before we factor in training and nutrition and so on.

You say nah ah.

And on and on and on and on and on.

Even if I "win', you'll just ignore it and change the subject...see WAR/30% above. So I'm stepping away from it.

Well, we're not re-animating a corpse.    We're putting a Babe Ruth in today's world.   Instead of 6-1, 215, he's probably 6-5, 255.    We're bigger people these days(nutrition).   Now if your retarded argument was going to be "Well, Ruth thought training was eating two hotdogs instead of four", I'd have countered that, with much bigger paydays at stake, Ruth might have become a gym monster. 

The simple fact is that a great athlete is a great athlete.   They're generally bigger/stronger/faster than their peers.   That's why they're great athletes.

1/13/2014 1:17 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/12/2014 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I think that it's more than just training and nutrition that separates great athletes from today and those from the past.
I've yet to be enlightened.    What separates them?
?????
You didn't respond to this so I saw no need in engaging in another argument with you:

Quote post by bad_luck on 1/10/2014 11:16:00 AM:
You shouldn't be using 30% then, because that's not what I was saying. I said you should round off the decimal. In each situation that will be a different percentage. It could be as high as 100%, as it is with 2013 David Freese and Alberto Callaspo or lower than 0.1%, as it is with Rickey Henderson's and Tom Seaver's career WAR. 

Please confirm that you understand so that we can stop referring to "30%." 

Regarding Raines and Biggio, WAR isn't everything. Stop acting like anyone ever insisted it was.
You made a stupid statement.    Back it up or shut the **** up. 
I'm pretty sure by not engaging you in the argument, I took the second option.

I don't think it's stupid but I'm not going to argue about it.

How about you shut the **** up and stop demanding to be enlightened? No one can help you with that.
Oh, it's a stupid statement.   You walking away from a potential argument pretty much indicates you know it's stupid.  You don't walk away from arguments.
I love to argue. I love to argue about baseball, politics, and science. Mostly things where there is data to guide us towards a right answer.

This potential argument, though, goes nowhere.

I say that I think that we are boiling down the very top 0.01% of athletes from a larger population than we were in the early 1900s, that I think that genetically we are bigger/stronger/faster before we factor in training and nutrition and so on.

You say nah ah.

And on and on and on and on and on.

Even if I "win', you'll just ignore it and change the subject...see WAR/30% above. So I'm stepping away from it.

Well, we're not re-animating a corpse.    We're putting a Babe Ruth in today's world.   Instead of 6-1, 215, he's probably 6-5, 255.    We're bigger people these days(nutrition).   Now if your retarded argument was going to be "Well, Ruth thought training was eating two hotdogs instead of four", I'd have countered that, with much bigger paydays at stake, Ruth might have become a gym monster. 

The simple fact is that a great athlete is a great athlete.   They're generally bigger/stronger/faster than their peers.   That's why they're great athletes.

See? This is a stupid argument to have.

In my opinion, Ruth, playing today, wouldn't have been as good. That's where I end this.
1/13/2014 1:20 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 1:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/13/2014 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2014 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/12/2014 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I think that it's more than just training and nutrition that separates great athletes from today and those from the past.
I've yet to be enlightened.    What separates them?
?????
You didn't respond to this so I saw no need in engaging in another argument with you:

Quote post by bad_luck on 1/10/2014 11:16:00 AM:
You shouldn't be using 30% then, because that's not what I was saying. I said you should round off the decimal. In each situation that will be a different percentage. It could be as high as 100%, as it is with 2013 David Freese and Alberto Callaspo or lower than 0.1%, as it is with Rickey Henderson's and Tom Seaver's career WAR. 

Please confirm that you understand so that we can stop referring to "30%." 

Regarding Raines and Biggio, WAR isn't everything. Stop acting like anyone ever insisted it was.
You made a stupid statement.    Back it up or shut the **** up. 
I'm pretty sure by not engaging you in the argument, I took the second option.

I don't think it's stupid but I'm not going to argue about it.

How about you shut the **** up and stop demanding to be enlightened? No one can help you with that.
Oh, it's a stupid statement.   You walking away from a potential argument pretty much indicates you know it's stupid.  You don't walk away from arguments.
I love to argue. I love to argue about baseball, politics, and science. Mostly things where there is data to guide us towards a right answer.

This potential argument, though, goes nowhere.

I say that I think that we are boiling down the very top 0.01% of athletes from a larger population than we were in the early 1900s, that I think that genetically we are bigger/stronger/faster before we factor in training and nutrition and so on.

You say nah ah.

And on and on and on and on and on.

Even if I "win', you'll just ignore it and change the subject...see WAR/30% above. So I'm stepping away from it.

Well, we're not re-animating a corpse.    We're putting a Babe Ruth in today's world.   Instead of 6-1, 215, he's probably 6-5, 255.    We're bigger people these days(nutrition).   Now if your retarded argument was going to be "Well, Ruth thought training was eating two hotdogs instead of four", I'd have countered that, with much bigger paydays at stake, Ruth might have become a gym monster. 

The simple fact is that a great athlete is a great athlete.   They're generally bigger/stronger/faster than their peers.   That's why they're great athletes.

See? This is a stupid argument to have.

In my opinion, Ruth, playing today, wouldn't have been as good. That's where I end this.
I assume you have a reason to believe this. 

If it's because the level of competition is better, that Ruth got to face the same tiring pitcher 4 times every game or that additional scrutiny would wear him down, maybe you're not wrong.   But let's not pretend the best player of his time would suddenly become a mid-level player.    I doubt he'd hit more homers than entire teams but he'd still be a great player. 
1/13/2014 1:25 PM
You know what, I'm studying this a little closer.  I know Glavine pitched into his 40s to get to 300 wins and is a "compiler" in that way.  One could argue his rate stats, compared to Mussina, were hurt by pitching for so long.  

So if you stop Glavine's career at age 38, therefore, pitching the same amount of years as Mussina, you find:

Glavine: 262-171, 3.44 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 65.3 WAR
Mussina: 270-153, 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP, 82.7 WAR

They look like very similar pitchers during this time, aside from the WHIP and WAR.  I imagine that those 2 stats are correlated in some way.  Glavine's FIP and xFIP were significantly higher than his ERA, because of the way he pitched.  He lived just off the plate, with the idea that any contact that is made isn't hit hard.  In only 7 of the 18 years Glavine pitched did he allow 20 home runs or more, which is fantastic.  He walked a batter more per 9 innings than Mussina, and because he wasn't a K pitcher, he allowed more contact, and thus, he allowed more baserunners than Moose.  But again, his goal was to put the ball in spots where it was hard to hit the ball square, and that's why his ERA didn't suffer as much as you'd think it would considering his WHIP.

So while I'd argue by looking at the above that Mussina was a better pitcher during that time, I understand the argument that Glavine was more often considered the best pitcher in his own league year-to-year, and because he pitched longer, he showed more durability and accumulated more wins and innings.  The more a great pitcher pitches, the better his career is.  They are neck-in-neck in their careers, IMO.  
1/13/2014 1:27 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/13/2014 1:27:00 PM (view original):
You know what, I'm studying this a little closer.  I know Glavine pitched into his 40s to get to 300 wins and is a "compiler" in that way.  One could argue his rate stats, compared to Mussina, were hurt by pitching for so long.  

So if you stop Glavine's career at age 38, therefore, pitching the same amount of years as Mussina, you find:

Glavine: 262-171, 3.44 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 65.3 WAR
Mussina: 270-153, 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP, 82.7 WAR

They look like very similar pitchers during this time, aside from the WHIP and WAR.  I imagine that those 2 stats are correlated in some way.  Glavine's FIP and xFIP were significantly higher than his ERA, because of the way he pitched.  He lived just off the plate, with the idea that any contact that is made isn't hit hard.  In only 7 of the 18 years Glavine pitched did he allow 20 home runs or more, which is fantastic.  He walked a batter more per 9 innings than Mussina, and because he wasn't a K pitcher, he allowed more contact, and thus, he allowed more baserunners than Moose.  But again, his goal was to put the ball in spots where it was hard to hit the ball square, and that's why his ERA didn't suffer as much as you'd think it would considering his WHIP.

So while I'd argue by looking at the above that Mussina was a better pitcher during that time, I understand the argument that Glavine was more often considered the best pitcher in his own league year-to-year, and because he pitched longer, he showed more durability and accumulated more wins and innings.  The more a great pitcher pitches, the better his career is.  They are neck-in-neck in their careers, IMO.  
I completely agree. 

There's a lot of value in the additional 800+ innings that Glavine threw, and that certainly hurt his rate stats. Another reason Glavine outpitched his FIP: he was phenomenal at holding runners on and was somehow able to maintain a Randy Johnson/Roger Clemens-esque strand rate.
1/13/2014 1:34 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 12:52:00 PM (view original):
Six top-3 CYA finishes, including two wins, for Glavine versus one top-3 CYA finishes and no wins for Mussina.

That says a lot about how they were perceived during their careers.  And how they're also being perceived now.

Mussina was a very, very good pitcher.  Nobody is questioning that. 

Glavine was better.
Sooooooooooooooo....

No, you don't have any argument aside from, "look, these people agree(d) with me, so I must be right."  ?  'Cause you still seem to be appealing to voters.  I named about a dozen statistical metrics by which Mussina was a better pitcher.  Can you come up with one meaningful metric by which Glavine was?  Vote totals are not a statistic; they don't tell me ANYTHING about how good a player was, realistically speaking.  1987 Nolan Ryan was by far and away the best pitcher in the NL in a randomly offensively-biased season, and wound up 5th in the Cy voting and off many ballots entirely.  We KNOW that voting overemphasizes the importance of wins and losses.  But even the wins and losses themselves, when viewed as a rate, favor  Mussina - he won less often, and lost more.  Even true when you cut his career off at Moose's retirement age, though the losses become very close.  All Glavine did was start more games.  That's it.  Unless you have some meaningful evidence you're withholding in favor of your bandwagon arguments?
1/13/2014 1:46 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/13/2014 12:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 12:57:00 PM (view original):

That's one of the things voters look at.  Are you denying that's the case?

Are we talking about how voters vote? Or who is worthy?
Seems to me that it's the voters who decide who is worthy.

Am I wrong?
1/13/2014 2:02 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 2:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/13/2014 12:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 12:57:00 PM (view original):

That's one of the things voters look at.  Are you denying that's the case?

Are we talking about how voters vote? Or who is worthy?
Seems to me that it's the voters who decide who is worthy.

Am I wrong?
What have we been discussed all this time?  Who is worthy of the HOF, did the voters get it right, or not.  So when you say "it's one of the things voters look at" I don't know what you mean.  If you get 300 wins, you're generally a lock, because HOF voters historically see it as a magic number to making the HOF, regardless of what the rest of your numbers are.  I know people have argued that someone like Don Sutton doesn't deserve to make it (I'm sure BL would argue he doesn't).  Personally, I'm torn, because I don't know if his durability makes up for him being just a good-to-very good pitcher for his career.  
1/13/2014 2:20 PM
I thought we were discussing why Glavine was elected and why Mussina was not.

As to whether I think the voters got it right . . . I was on record last week before results were announced as saying that I thought Glavine should go in and that Mussina should not.

So from my point of view . . . yes, they got it right.
1/13/2014 2:49 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/13/2014 2:49:00 PM (view original):
I thought we were discussing why Glavine was elected and why Mussina was not.

As to whether I think the voters got it right . . . I was on record last week before results were announced as saying that I thought Glavine should go in and that Mussina should not.

So from my point of view . . . yes, they got it right.
I thought we were discussing why Glavine was elected and why Mussina was not.

Tec's answer to that question:

"Because Glavine was and Mussina wasn't."

No analysis needed. The voters know all. Completely ignoring the fact that Mussina was probably slightly better than Glavine.
1/13/2014 2:57 PM
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