Posted by jcred5 on 4/4/2023 10:24:00 PM (view original):
Anyone watch the Boston - Philly game tonight? FN Tucker. What was Embiid's TS% going 20-25 FG and 12-13 FT? Like 87%?

that was his best offensive game ever...just amazing

rest of the team tho...ugh..im not looking forward to round 2


thanks for the playoff recap...definitely comes in handy when you ghost wis due to worst savage performance ever

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 8:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jcred5 on 4/6/2023 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 2:38:00 PM (view original):
I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

Pretty cool. Haven't done the math to be sure, but you were right about the savage crown being down to 2... you just had one of them wrong.

Tbf from the position you were in to where you ended up was a pretty long shot outcome. I am shocked to see it.

Without looking to closely - I see your point. But 2 teams were up 2-1 as a road team and the other was down 1-2 as a road team All playing teams that had a bye. They pretty much played to their regular season performance with a second round loss. My only hope was that they may have been better than the record indicates due to strength of schedule.

Posted by jcred5 on 4/7/2023 12:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 8:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jcred5 on 4/6/2023 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 2:38:00 PM (view original):
I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

Pretty cool. Haven't done the math to be sure, but you were right about the savage crown being down to 2... you just had one of them wrong.

Tbf from the position you were in to where you ended up was a pretty long shot outcome. I am shocked to see it.

Without looking to closely - I see your point. But 2 teams were up 2-1 as a road team and the other was down 1-2 as a road team All playing teams that had a bye. They pretty much played to their regular season performance with a second round loss. My only hope was that they may have been better than the record indicates due to strength of schedule.

If you just use the NBA odds of how frequently teams advance while up 2-1 in a series (I don't have good data for homecourt versus not homecourt, or WIS versus RL), the odds of you only sending one through from where we were at the time of that post were 2.7%.

This is neither here nor there, but I was just looking at my Euphoria team in World One. They started a 100 D at center (Howard), two 90 defenders at guard (Michael Cooper and Gary Payton), and two 80 defenders at forward (Bill Bridges and Bailey Howell). They out rebounded their opponents. They did play 30 D Kevin Love at PF, but he could always hide behind Dwight Howard or Bob Pettit (90 D). Ray Allen (40 D) also played, but he usually hid behind Payton.

This team came in 23rd in the league in points allowed per game and was one of only four teams in the league to allow more than 50% field goal percentage.

Were they really that bad or were they unlucky?

That's kind of mind blowing (the fg% part). The ppg part might be turnovers & fouls, but that fg% is just confusing. I had a similar situation last season. Starting to think we're all just stupid and this is even more random than anybody wants to admit. The consistency of certain owners argues that point, but I do see things that just shouldn't happen over an 82 game span.

Posted by Midge on 4/7/2023 9:38:00 PM (view original):
This is neither here nor there, but I was just looking at my Euphoria team in World One. They started a 100 D at center (Howard), two 90 defenders at guard (Michael Cooper and Gary Payton), and two 80 defenders at forward (Bill Bridges and Bailey Howell). They out rebounded their opponents. They did play 30 D Kevin Love at PF, but he could always hide behind Dwight Howard or Bob Pettit (90 D). Ray Allen (40 D) also played, but he usually hid behind Payton.

This team came in 23rd in the league in points allowed per game and was one of only four teams in the league to allow more than 50% field goal percentage.

Were they really that bad or were they unlucky?

Wasn't luck or randomness, defense is a factor in a lot of things... it works in conjunction with other stats to affect outcomes of certain plays. When it comes to the outcome of a shot, it is various factors of individual D combined with team D combined with individual block rate combined with team block rate. That team (along with most of your teams) had some of the worst block rates in the league which is why your opponent shooting percentages underperformed what you expected when looking at defense only. (fwiw. block rate is of far greater weight on 2 pnt% than it is on 3 pnt%... as it should be)

Or you can also blame sim randomness / luck.

Posted by robusk on 4/7/2023 1:48:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jcred5 on 4/7/2023 12:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 8:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jcred5 on 4/6/2023 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 2:38:00 PM (view original):
I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

Pretty cool. Haven't done the math to be sure, but you were right about the savage crown being down to 2... you just had one of them wrong.

Tbf from the position you were in to where you ended up was a pretty long shot outcome. I am shocked to see it.

Without looking to closely - I see your point. But 2 teams were up 2-1 as a road team and the other was down 1-2 as a road team All playing teams that had a bye. They pretty much played to their regular season performance with a second round loss. My only hope was that they may have been better than the record indicates due to strength of schedule.

If you just use the NBA odds of how frequently teams advance while up 2-1 in a series (I don't have good data for homecourt versus not homecourt, or WIS versus RL), the odds of you only sending one through from where we were at the time of that post were 2.7%.

that doesn't make me feel better!

Okay, I get it about the lack of shot blocking, but doesn’t just having high D ratings mean that the opponent should miss more shots, whether they are blocked or not?

Can we bring bds in for a guest essay?

Posted by Midge on 4/8/2023 1:00:00 PM (view original):
Okay, I get it about the lack of shot blocking, but doesn’t just having high D ratings mean that the opponent should miss more shots, whether they are blocked or not?

I think that question is misstated. In Savage the average D scores are quite high and your bench D was awful. So the question is: should slightly above average defense with the worst block percentage in the league yield average or better opponent field goal percentage? My answer to that question would be maybe but I wouldn’t count on it.

	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	Count
chewy3344	1	0	0	0	0	1
robusk	0	0	1	1	0	2
jcred5	0	0	0	0	1	1
ashamael	0	1	0	0	0	1
benhoidal	0	0	1	0	0	1
jkaye24	1	0	0	0	0	1
amerk1180	0	1	0	0	0	1
dh555	0	0	0	1	0	1
ty84moss	0	0	0	0	1	1

	Coach	Odds
W1	jkaye24	45%
	chewy3344	55%
W2	amerk1180	45%
	ashamael	55%
W3	benhoidal	80%
	robusk	20%
W4	dh555	60%
	robusk	40%
W5	ty84moss	40%
	jcred5	60%

I did set the line without looking at W5 which already started. Looks like ty is up 2-1 already.

Good Luck Rob, I don’t have a good feeling about this. I think you have to win at least 1 out of 2 championships and if you win both worlds, you win the whole thing. I need some luck to help me from choking.

Posted by chewy3344 on 4/10/2023 2:21:00 PM (view original):
Good Luck Rob, I don’t have a good feeling about this. I think you have to win at least 1 out of 2 championships and if you win both worlds, you win the whole thing. I need some luck to help me from choking.

Back at you. Although I need a lot more luck than you it would seem... I think you have to be at least a slight favorite against jkaye. I probably don't have a snowball's chance in hell in W3 and would be considered at least a slight underdog in W4.