Posted by copernicus on 3/24/2023 10:55:00 AM (view original):
T/F, to the extent that a possession ends w Steph going to the free throw line you are getting screwed: discuss
False
If we assume that Curry will shoot 90% at the line this means he will bring 1.8 points per possession that ends with two free throws.
If we assume that a 2pt shot will be made with 52.3% accuracy, this will yield about 1.05 points per possession.
If we assume that a 3pt shot will be made with 43% accuracy, this will yield about 1.29 points per possession.
Now looking at one free throw vs. the opportunity to obtain points we see .9 points per free throw attempted vs. 1.46 points per possession (weighted for shot type). If Curry is shooting just one free throw it is because he made another shot prior, but when he shoots two (or even three which I did not calcuate since I am doing this kinda dirty) we would see the 1.8 points per possession.
Free throws will not only bring more points but they will also put pressure on the other team to have less optimal players in the game as they get into foul trouble.