Poll: Best Shortstop Evah Topic

tecwrg
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 6/25/2012 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:01:00 PM (view original):
The defense can't catch a HR. The credit for allowing that HR rests solely with the pitcher.
So a pitcher has 100% responsibility for a ball that clears the wall by a foot, but has 0% responsibility for a ball that falls short of the wall by a foot?

Do you realize how stupid that sounds?
No, he has 100% responsibility for the HR and partial responsibility for the ball caught by the outfielder.  But no one really knows how much partial credit he should get.

Should he get the same credit for all fly ball outs, like ERA gives him?  Is the routine pop fly to the left fielder the same as the shot in the gap that the centerfielder catches in a dive?  Of course not.
So the pitcher has some responsibility for balls in play?

FIP seems to ignore that.
6/25/2012 2:17 PM
jrd_x
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Yes, he has some responsibility.  But we don't know how much is the pitcher, how much is the defense, and how much is luck.  So FIP takes it out.
6/25/2012 2:19 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by genghisxcon on 6/25/2012 2:16:00 PM (view original):
According to FIP, that was entirely the pitcher's fault, because HR's allowed are controlled by pitchers.

Same with ITPHR's.
6/25/2012 2:19 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Yes, he has some responsibility.  But we don't know how much is the pitcher, how much is the defense, and how much is luck.  So FIP takes it out.
So if FIP can't account for something, it just ignores it.

Doesn't seem like that makes it very meaningful since balls in play are a rather large part of baseball.
6/25/2012 2:20 PM
genghisxcon
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Posted by tecwrg on 6/25/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by genghisxcon on 6/25/2012 2:16:00 PM (view original):
According to FIP, that was entirely the pitcher's fault, because HR's allowed are controlled by pitchers.

Same with ITPHR's.
Sometimes, a "pitcher" is worth a thousand words...but a roiding right fielder ain't worth jack
6/25/2012 2:22 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:01:00 PM (view original):
The defense can't catch a HR. The credit for allowing that HR rests solely with the pitcher.
Is FIP park adjusted?   Because, as you know(I hope), all homers aren't created equally.    A HR to RF in Yankee or LF at Fenway are just outs in a lot of places.
FIP is not park adjusted.
So it's really pretty useless when evaluating pitchers, isn't it?  As has been noted, homers are as much luck and park effects as any other hit/out is affected by defense.   So, I guess, it's only fair to remove homers from FIP.   Now it's just BB and K.  
Most HR aren't fence scrappers, but you have a point.  There are a lot of people working with batted ball data now in an attempt to quantify that.
I forget the number but I think it was like 8-10 of Prince's homer in MIL would have stayed in the park in DET.   Judging by his homer total this season, that sure looks pretty close.   I guess pitchers in DET are just better than pitchers in MIL.
6/25/2012 2:23 PM
burnsy483
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A-Rod is the best shortstop ever.
6/25/2012 2:24 PM
jrd_x
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Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
6/25/2012 2:25 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
6/25/2012 2:26 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by tecwrg on 6/25/2012 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Yes, he has some responsibility.  But we don't know how much is the pitcher, how much is the defense, and how much is luck.  So FIP takes it out.
So if FIP can't account for something, it just ignores it.

Doesn't seem like that makes it very meaningful since balls in play are a rather large part of baseball.
If we don't know how much of BABIP is pitcher skill and how much of BABIP is defense and luck, how do we use it to evaluate a pitcher?
6/25/2012 2:26 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
6/25/2012 2:29 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Was I arguing that ERA was the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher?   If so, I can't recall it.
6/25/2012 2:30 PM
burnsy483
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Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
6/25/2012 2:31 PM
burnsy483
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I think we're all going to disagree how much control a pitcher has when it comes to balls in play that aren't home runs.  I'm arguing its a lot more than you think.  I do understand your BABIP argument.
6/25/2012 2:34 PM
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