Poll: Best Shortstop Evah Topic

jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
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3
Prospect
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
6/25/2012 2:34 PM
burnsy483
Posts: 6848 (0)
Veteran
1 1 26
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
When i see a hard hit ball off the bat, my first assumption is that it's a hit.  When I see something weak hit off the bat, my first assumption is that it's an out.  Am I always right? No.  But more often that not I find myself praising/blaming a pitcher for what happened rather than a defender and his positioning or range.  And yes, often a lazy fly ball falls, and thats luck.  More often than not, that ball is caught, and I'll give the pitcher credit for it.
6/25/2012 2:37 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
How can we give him no credit at all and claim that we're using ADVANCED METRICS!?
6/25/2012 2:38 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Was I arguing that ERA was the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher?   If so, I can't recall it.
I'm not arguing that any stat is the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher.  Just that we should attempt to use the most accurate stats we have available.

What stat(s) would you like to use to evaluate a pitcher?
6/25/2012 2:38 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
When i see a hard hit ball off the bat, my first assumption is that it's a hit.  When I see something weak hit off the bat, my first assumption is that it's an out.  Am I always right? No.  But more often that not I find myself praising/blaming a pitcher for what happened rather than a defender and his positioning or range.  And yes, often a lazy fly ball falls, and thats luck.  More often than not, that ball is caught, and I'll give the pitcher credit for it.
Intuitively that seems correct.  But there isn't any sort of BABIP trend to back it up.  You'd think hall of fame quality pitchers would almost always have low BABIP and that mediocre or bad pitchers would always have a higher BABIP.  But it isn't true.
6/25/2012 2:43 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
How can we give him no credit at all and claim that we're using ADVANCED METRICS!?
Because we're eliminating the noise we can't measure.
6/25/2012 2:44 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
How can we give him no credit at all and claim that we're using ADVANCED METRICS!?
Because we're eliminating the noise we can't measure.
FIP is a stat that ignores 71% of the game.  The 71% of the game where most of the action happens.
6/25/2012 2:51 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Was I arguing that ERA was the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher?   If so, I can't recall it.
I'm not arguing that any stat is the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher.  Just that we should attempt to use the most accurate stats we have available.

What stat(s) would you like to use to evaluate a pitcher?
I don't think a single stat, even ADVANCED METRICS!!!!, can tell the story.  I'm not sure a collection of stats can tell the story.   I have no idea what sort of FIP the 90s Braves carried but I know, other than Smoltz, their SP didn't strike out a lot of batters.   Watching their games was almost annoying because the plate seemed to be about 25 inches wide with Maddux/Glavine on the mound.   But, because they could hit their spots so well, the umps would just follow them out there.  Then, once he realized he was calling pitches 6 inches off the plate strikes, they're bring it back in.   That led to bad swings and poorly hit balls because, get this, batters had to chase what the umps were calling strikes.     Maybe your precious FIP for them is good, they didn't give up homers or walks, but it won't tell the story.  You had to actually watch a game to get the full effect. of what they were doing.
6/25/2012 2:51 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
How can we give him no credit at all and claim that we're using ADVANCED METRICS!?
Because we're eliminating the noise we can't measure.
So, again, if we can't measure it on a stat sheet, we should just ignore it as a skill?
6/25/2012 2:54 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect
Why are we arguing baseball with a dumbass who doesn't understand baseball?
6/25/2012 2:54 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
One could argue that we're dumbasses for doing it.   I'd have a tough time disputing that claim.
6/25/2012 2:55 PM
burnsy483
Posts: 6848 (0)
Veteran
1 1 26
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
When i see a hard hit ball off the bat, my first assumption is that it's a hit.  When I see something weak hit off the bat, my first assumption is that it's an out.  Am I always right? No.  But more often that not I find myself praising/blaming a pitcher for what happened rather than a defender and his positioning or range.  And yes, often a lazy fly ball falls, and thats luck.  More often than not, that ball is caught, and I'll give the pitcher credit for it.
Intuitively that seems correct.  But there isn't any sort of BABIP trend to back it up.  You'd think hall of fame quality pitchers would almost always have low BABIP and that mediocre or bad pitchers would always have a higher BABIP.  But it isn't true.
There isn't much of a trend (I'll say not much, because there is some.  I did some quick looks at great pitchers and not so great pitchers and did find trends).  And that's why I don't have much argument against what you're saying.  But when you have numbers that don't make sense to you, intuitively, you shouldn't just use them because you don't know any better.  The pitcher has much more say than his defense on whether a ball he throws is a hit or not.  To take this out of the equation, intuitively, seems silly.

I will continue to use ERA as a measuring stick on determining who are the best pitchers in baseball.  It measures the amount of earned runs a pitcher has allowed.  And since my common sense tells me that a pitcher has much more say than a fielder does in determining hits from outs, this statistic also seems to make the most sense.
6/25/2012 2:56 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Was I arguing that ERA was the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher?   If so, I can't recall it.
I'm not arguing that any stat is the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher.  Just that we should attempt to use the most accurate stats we have available.

What stat(s) would you like to use to evaluate a pitcher?
I don't think a single stat, even ADVANCED METRICS!!!!, can tell the story.  I'm not sure a collection of stats can tell the story.   I have no idea what sort of FIP the 90s Braves carried but I know, other than Smoltz, their SP didn't strike out a lot of batters.   Watching their games was almost annoying because the plate seemed to be about 25 inches wide with Maddux/Glavine on the mound.   But, because they could hit their spots so well, the umps would just follow them out there.  Then, once he realized he was calling pitches 6 inches off the plate strikes, they're bring it back in.   That led to bad swings and poorly hit balls because, get this, batters had to chase what the umps were calling strikes.     Maybe your precious FIP for them is good, they didn't give up homers or walks, but it won't tell the story.  You had to actually watch a game to get the full effect. of what they were doing.
If watching someone pitch was the only way anyone could evaluate a pitcher, we'd be hosed.  Not everyone can watch every pitch of every game for every pitcher since the turn of the century.  And even if you could, good luck remembering it all.  We have to use stats to make any sort of meaningful comparison.
6/25/2012 2:56 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 6/25/2012 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Do balls hit in play that aren't home runs have anything to do with run scoring?
Absolutely. But if we aren't able to distinguish between the pitcher's role in allowing the hit in play and the defense's role in allowing the hit in play, how do we give credit one way or the other?
How can we give him no credit at all and claim that we're using ADVANCED METRICS!?
Because we're eliminating the noise we can't measure.
So, again, if we can't measure it on a stat sheet, we should just ignore it as a skill?
If we can't distinguish the pitcher's role in BABIP from the defense's, we should find stats that evaluate the pitcher without incorporating BABIP.
6/25/2012 2:58 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/25/2012 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 6/25/2012 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Park factors are very important.  No one is arguing otherwise.  But your point suggests we need more advanced stats, not less.
No, my point is FIP is a horseshit stat that ignores so many things baseball that I'm not even sure it should count as a baseball stat.
ERA ignores park factors, defense, and luck.  Those things have a HUGE impact on run scoring.
Was I arguing that ERA was the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher?   If so, I can't recall it.
I'm not arguing that any stat is the ultimate stat for evaluating a pitcher.  Just that we should attempt to use the most accurate stats we have available.

What stat(s) would you like to use to evaluate a pitcher?
I don't think a single stat, even ADVANCED METRICS!!!!, can tell the story.  I'm not sure a collection of stats can tell the story.   I have no idea what sort of FIP the 90s Braves carried but I know, other than Smoltz, their SP didn't strike out a lot of batters.   Watching their games was almost annoying because the plate seemed to be about 25 inches wide with Maddux/Glavine on the mound.   But, because they could hit their spots so well, the umps would just follow them out there.  Then, once he realized he was calling pitches 6 inches off the plate strikes, they're bring it back in.   That led to bad swings and poorly hit balls because, get this, batters had to chase what the umps were calling strikes.     Maybe your precious FIP for them is good, they didn't give up homers or walks, but it won't tell the story.  You had to actually watch a game to get the full effect. of what they were doing.
If watching someone pitch was the only way anyone could evaluate a pitcher, we'd be hosed.  Not everyone can watch every pitch of every game for every pitcher since the turn of the century.  And even if you could, good luck remembering it all.  We have to use stats to make any sort of meaningful comparison.
I'd argue that we don't HAVE to do any such thing.

It would be hard to argue that the 90s Braves didn't have some of the best staffs we've seen in the last 30 years.  You could use wins and ERA as the stats to "prove" it.   Everyone hates wins as a stat and some, like you, believe ERA is just luck.   Yet I dare you to find anyone who'll say "Those guys were pretty average".
6/25/2012 3:00 PM
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