Thanks red! Think I'm one of the few newbs that got called out by name (granted, in a positive manner).  My matchup with spasticity tomorrow should be a very good barometer.  I'll be happy if I beat the spread.

Posted by spasticity on 4/9/2012 1:02:00 PM (view original):
Great job red, everyone definitely appreciates the time it took you to do that!  Bringing in all the conferences is a good way to try to get more people talking.

What are your way-too-early Final 4 predictions?

I should have seen this question coming when I was putting this together. One of the reasons I held off was because I'm hoping to throw together a pre-tournament bit like I did last season and was afraid they'd sound too similar. I was also hoping someone else might come along and stick their neck out on it... ;) 

My premise for what it takes to win a national title (since I've never sniffed one myself in 36 seasons...) includes upperclass leadership,decent depth at the guard position, a solid set of Ath/Spd/Def numbers and, yes, a high "functional rating." (to shamelessly plug my own term in the spirit of football writer Phil Steele...). I looked at 21 teams that I thought had good starting values and good potential to grow to the area a Final Four team typically has, put myself on a 2 GNE team diet (it's kind of like a 2 margarita lunch...hard to do, but keeps people from whispering about you) and went from there. Here's what you get as a result, in alphabetical order (advanced apologies for any SI "cover jinx" sort of stuff that may occur as a result...)

Johnson and Wales
Why I like them: Spasticity begins the year with nine players rated 550 or better and an Ath/Spd/Def breakdown that's entirely in the 50s (with two of the three likely destined to be 60+ by season's end). He has five players at the guard slot that go 70+ in speed. And just in case that's all not good enough, his team work ethic is 58 so heaven only knows where this team will be a regular season from now. 

Newbury
Why I like them: Adjusted for the presence of a redshirt player, Newbury begins the season with a functional rating that's higher than all but nine teams to make last season's national tournament. Ath/Spd/Def all 50+ and seven upperclassmen will provide plenty of IQ for the press setup on defense. Five players weigh in at 600+ to begin the season and good two-deep at the guard slots to guard against the occasional foul-fest a press can produce. Aside from that, if I don't kiss up to dinosaur he might pinball me twice this season. 

Rose-Hulman Tech
Why I like them: Six solid upperclass defenders in a man defense. Good athleticism and speed to go with it. Six players starting at 550+, two quality guards and good values. High team stamina and work ethic numbers should provide for great player growth and no shortage of strategy options throughout the season. Aside from that, nacho made a believer out of me with his deep run last season when he was playing with nine. Now he's got a full roster to play with and I'm excited to see where he goes with it. 

Texas Lutheran
This is the point where everyone who read my OP point out that I called Hardin-Simmons to win the American Southwest tournament. You're right. I did. That batch was printed before coaches had a chance to apply redshirts and 2 preseason games gave some players early ratings bumps. That makes some subtle changes to some of the close calls I made. That said, this is NOT a mulligan -- really! Hardin-Simmons WILL win the ASC tournament, and it's going to inspire Texas Lutheran and blapo to postseason greatness! That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

Why I like them: Good values overall, seven players at 550+ to start things off. The highest team work ethic of the schools I looked at as serious FInal Four contenders. Plenty of speed at the the guard positions for depth in the press and stamina to boot. I'll be honest, this is my "last one in" selection and I'm a little concerned by the overall number of sub-40 defenders on roster. You could make a credible argument for one of about eight other schools here (at least that's how many I had left on my list that I was poring over at this point...) and this happens to be the one I went with. 

Let the discussions and debate ensue!

Thanks a lot for putting this pres-season preview together, very nice stuff.

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/9/2012 3:37:00 PM (view original):
painful reading this part: Ripon, Illinois, Grinnell are all capable of reaching the NT perhaps.

Can't believe how quckly Ripon has fallen off. 

To be fair (or maybe it's just me wanting to take up for conference), I don't think Ripon has dropped off an insane amount.

Posted by nachopuzzle on 4/9/2012 8:50:00 PM (view original):
Thanks a lot for putting this pres-season preview together, very nice stuff.

Glad everyone seems to be enjoying it -- I loved the GUESS reports over in GD when I played and I just think it adds a little something to the game. After all, most of us are here I'd imagine because we OD on sports and probably buy a season preview magazine or two...or 12 (guilty!)...as part of that process. As long as folks are enjoying it and I've got the time, I'm game for doing it. People just need to realize its commentary, not necessarily EXPERT commentary, as there's definitely a level of this game I haven't quite cracked yet. 

I'll try to take a look at things tomorrow.  Fortunately, I'll have the benefit of a game or two.

I must say, Vassar - the only team I have looked at much - is impressive.  We'll see how the Majors of Millsaps fare tonight in this supposed top 10 battle.  

Other big match-ups on opening night include:
Rivier vs. Penn St. Altoona (can he go 36-0? 37?)
Rose Hulman vs. up and comer - US Merchant Marines
Greensboro vs. Eureka
John Carroll vs Emmanuel
Adrian vs. Daniel Webster
Ursinus vs. Thomas Moore (sparky10 was a solid coach for yrs at Southwestern but afraid* to come back to the UAA)
Brandeis vs. Susquehanna
East Connecticut St. vs. Emerson
Texas Lutheran vs. Dickinson

interestingly I see a lot of coaches that have been around for a few seasons in Rupp that look like they may break thru this time around... many new faces in the top 25, often challenging the old guard.  Should be interesting to see how they fare.

*joke

Gotta give a shout out to that Vassar team -- not sure I've ever seen a D3 team that has a B free throw rating before. 

Posted by mizzoufan10 on 4/9/2012 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Thanks red! Think I'm one of the few newbs that got called out by name (granted, in a positive manner).  My matchup with spasticity tomorrow should be a very good barometer.  I'll be happy if I beat the spread.

That was a back and forth game for 3/4 of it, but I think JW's depth wore you down a little in the last 10 min or so.  Westy has a pretty impressive collection of LP/Per scoring.  If you draw a little better shooting night, that game would've been a nailbiter.  Good luck the rest of the way!

Posted by rednu on 4/10/2012 5:30:00 AM (view original):
Gotta give a shout out to that Vassar team -- not sure I've ever seen a D3 team that has a B free throw rating before. 

Thanks, rednu...I've always emphasized FT shooting when recruiting (I figure a 7-10 percent % increase is probably good for 2-4 points per game), and have tried to stay one of the top FT shooting teams in D3 for most of my tenure at Vassar.  Unfortunately, I may go a little overboard and let other categories fall a bit by the wayside (used to be DE, but now I'm often a little low on A/SPD and tend to get chewed up by good Press teams), which is why I haven't quite been at the NT contender level for the last few seasons.  I'm pretty balanced this year, though (if I can find a spot to play my SFs), as long as I can find some consistent PG play and find some rebounding off the bench.

Right now I think the rankings have it right near the top:

I'd put the early final four favorites as:  Johnson and Wales, Newbury, Hardin-Simmons, and Rivier... yeah - THREE teams from the obviously corrupt Great NE!  All these teams are loaded with talent and have at least 7 three year players (J& W has a redshirt soph). 

I thought I'd take a stab at some the lower half of the top 25... here are some teams that may make a move: 

Lynchburg:  ferocious front line, 8 upperclassmen.  Little sparse in terms of talent among sophomores at the moment, except for Fiore who is up-n-comer Center.  Great IQ already.  I think this team will be top 10.  Coach Barney is testing his team against several quality coaches and teams, so a lot will be learned non-conference about these guys.

Rutgers, Camden:  Has some great bigs, little weaker at guards (but Baker is very impressive, 4th yr junior).  9 players with 3 or more seasons under their belt.  Will be tested significantly non-conference.  Never won a NT game.  That will change this year without a doubt.  Runs motion/man so will have great depth with all these vets + high IQ.  Well designed team.  Little low on athleticism.  Only drawback is the coach is a Temple fan.  Despite his poor taste in colleges, I am really impressed with this team. 

John Carroll:  Another team that is playing some top coaches and teams.  This coach has won a national title.  Another team with 9 three year players.  Overall talent level seems to be a notch or two below top teams, but he could make some noise.

Posted by nachopuzzle on 4/9/2012 8:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/9/2012 3:37:00 PM (view original):
painful reading this part: Ripon, Illinois, Grinnell are all capable of reaching the NT perhaps.

Can't believe how quckly Ripon has fallen off. 

To be fair (or maybe it's just me wanting to take up for conference), I don't think Ripon has dropped off an insane amount.

#15 on the dynasty list isn't too shabby

Colby-Sawyer playing well early, tough matchup tonight against #4 Defiance. Looking to break the top 25.

Posted by caesari on 4/17/2012 8:00:00 PM (view original):
Colby-Sawyer playing well early, tough matchup tonight against #4 Defiance. Looking to break the top 25.

A tip of the cap.

Well, we're more or less at the midway point this season. I'd like to thank my four way-too-early selections to the Final Four for not embarrassing me too badly thus far and lingering in the top six. I appreciate the credibility boost, guys.

As for first-half surprises, here's a shout out to zmark513 for guiding Tufts to a 13-0 mark and No. 20 ranking, and to tylerraborn for the 13-0 and No. 21 mark at Elizabethtown. CCIW's slider 4480 has Illinois Wesleyan at No. 24. None were listed in my preseason guide [Edit: Oops, not awake enough on a Monday, I guess I had mentioned Elizabethtown...]

Any other surprises that people are seeing as they scan their conferences around the season's halfway point? 

I stand by my early unspoken preseason thoughts that blapo is a big poopy pants and will not beat H-S at all this year. Also, I'd like to know how one goes about improving their FT defense since I lost to JW by 12 and missed 12 FT (11-23 .478).  Seriously, JW looks like the class of D3 this season.

Elizabethtown is highly rated, but low SOS and D has me doubting them. Newbury looks really well put together as does US Merchant Marines. I'm also interested in seeing how some of these really fast/athletic squads with solid D but low rebounding do. My not so sleeper pick so far is Susquehanna. Superior rebounding with decent ath/spd/def.

This is easy to say 13 games in too....