Celtics 2011-2012 thread Topic

AlCheez
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You've got examples of guys shooting better than their FT% from 15+?

4/16/2012 12:31 PM
jvford
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I need "open shot" stats, which I can't find.
4/16/2012 12:32 PM
AlCheez
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Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Yep, because using the available info, I'd have to conclude that Ray Allen sucks at shooting from mid-range as well.
Allen is like 10 points below his career norms across the board this year, plus I would assume teams defend his jumper a little differently...
4/16/2012 12:37 PM
deanod
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"open" shot is subjective anyway

here's all you need to know: good shooters have to work to get open, and even then they have a really brief window to get their shot off before the defender closes on them.  they are very rarely going to be wide open, and their standard "open" shot is still going to be far more difficult than a free throw.

Rondo gets wide open shots because the defense concedes them to him.  if he were capable of hitting 60%, he would just rain them all day and defenses would stop giving him space on the perimeter.
4/16/2012 12:38 PM
jvford
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Ahh, so stats are subject to explanations for other players, but not Rondo.  Gotcha.
4/16/2012 12:41 PM
deanod
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And Rondo is shooting 39% from 16-23, which comes from a subset of mostly wide open shots.  He hit 41% last year.  So let's say he's a 40% mid-range shooter, take away the few contested shots he takes with the clock winding down and he's probably something like 42-43% when he's wide open.  45% would be his absolute ceiling imo.
4/16/2012 12:42 PM
AlCheez
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Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Ahh, so stats are subject to explanations for other players, but not Rondo.  Gotcha.
I would gladly allow you to offer an explanation for Rondo's poor jumpshooting stats that goes beyond him being a crappy shooter.  I don't know that I've seen you offer anything.
4/16/2012 12:43 PM
jvford
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Posted by deanod on 4/16/2012 12:42:00 PM (view original):
And Rondo is shooting 39% from 16-23, which comes from a subset of mostly wide open shots.  He hit 41% last year.  So let's say he's a 40% mid-range shooter, take away the few contested shots he takes with the clock winding down and he's probably something like 42-43% when he's wide open.  45% would be his absolute ceiling imo.
I guess I can accept that.  I think part of the issue is that I know (funny comments aside), that I can hit 6 of 10 every day, all day from 15 feet when I'm left open in pickup games.  But I'm just out there having fun and don't have the pressure of a tiny window to shoot. 
4/16/2012 12:46 PM
deanod
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Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Ahh, so stats are subject to explanations for other players, but not Rondo.  Gotcha.
...what are you talking about?  I thought my explanation was pretty thorough

The Celtics are averaging 1.008 PPP.  Rondo can get a wide open jump shot without turning it over quite easily, which means that if he just took a 60% attempt every time down the floor they would average 1.2 PPP, and that's not counting O-Rebs, which is way higher than the best ORtg in the league (OKC 1.10 ppp).  Yet nobody in the organization realizes that they are sitting on this gold mine and they haven't even bothered to try running the offense through open Rondo midrangers, even though it would be the most +EV thing ever.  Sounds about right to me.
4/16/2012 12:48 PM
deanod
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Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 4/16/2012 12:42:00 PM (view original):
And Rondo is shooting 39% from 16-23, which comes from a subset of mostly wide open shots.  He hit 41% last year.  So let's say he's a 40% mid-range shooter, take away the few contested shots he takes with the clock winding down and he's probably something like 42-43% when he's wide open.  45% would be his absolute ceiling imo.
I guess I can accept that.  I think part of the issue is that I know (funny comments aside), that I can hit 6 of 10 every day, all day from 15 feet when I'm left open in pickup games.  But I'm just out there having fun and don't have the pressure of a tiny window to shoot. 
It's probably some combo of you being an elite shooter and tending to remember your makes moreso than your misses.
4/16/2012 12:49 PM
AlCheez
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Posted by deanod on 4/16/2012 12:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Ahh, so stats are subject to explanations for other players, but not Rondo.  Gotcha.
...what are you talking about?  I thought my explanation was pretty thorough

The Celtics are averaging 1.008 PPP.  Rondo can get a wide open jump shot without turning it over quite easily, which means that if he just took a 60% attempt every time down the floor they would average 1.2 PPP, and that's not counting O-Rebs, which is way higher than the best ORtg in the league (OKC 1.10 ppp).  Yet nobody in the organization realizes that they are sitting on this gold mine and they haven't even bothered to try running the offense through open Rondo midrangers, even though it would be the most +EV thing ever.  Sounds about right to me.
I think that was meant for my response to his comment about Allen's midrange numbers this year.
4/16/2012 12:51 PM
malone9975
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Posted by jvford on 4/16/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Ahh, so stats are subject to explanations for other players, but not Rondo.  Gotcha.
Let me help you.  I found a stat for "open" shots.

59.8% from 15 feet out.

It's called a free throw and he is the worst in the league for all starting point guards.

Shooting 60% on open looks is tough in my driveway.  Tougher when there are 15,000 people yelling at you.  To put this in perspective Rondo would be the second worst Knick at the line, the worst Hawk if you only count people with more than 10 FTAs, and the worst FT shooting player among all guards on the 7 win Bobcats team.  Embarrassing.
4/16/2012 1:37 PM (edited)
badja
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60% from 15 ft is not hard for 10 minutes, but is very hard for 35 mins a game at full speed playing defense and being defensed night after night.

If Rondo shot 90% on FT's, he'd get an extra point or 2 per game.  No biggie.

He plays beside Ray, PP and KG.  Three all time great scorers.  So, he prefers to wait until they are in a scoring position, and make the pass rather than attempting the shot himself.  Last I checked Boston is not a great O-rebounding team, in fact they are awful.


4/16/2012 10:50 PM
AlCheez
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I wouldn't so quickly dismiss the value of getting another point or more a game essentially for free.  I also wouldn't dismiss the potential impact on the rest of his game that being good and confident at the free throw line could have.
4/17/2012 9:14 AM
deanod
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Uh yeah if Rondo even hit like 80% of his FT's that would be huge.

He could get to the line 4 or 5 times a game if he wanted to, but he knows he sucks so he doesn't actively try to draw contact.  Even w/o more attempts the difference between 80% and 60% over 3.5 FTA/game is pretty significant- an extra 0.7 ppg adds up to an extra 2 wins and change over the course of an 82 game season which isn't negligible.
4/17/2012 10:51 AM
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