Here we go again, please notice the above post to about suggestions.
First day-day games then midseason report.
#1 Drew pulls away from #18 Dickison 79-64
#2 Cal Tech survives the 3 point shooting of #11 Pacific Lutheran 63-58
#3 Menlo beats #17 Texas Lutheran in a shootout 118-110
#4 Becker wins a close one against #24 Piedmont 89-85
#8 Webster loses to uranked Muhlenburgh in a tight game 66-63
#9 Franklin(and newly crowned first time champ[tark] taggl) win against #16 E. Texas Baptis 76-64
Top 5 rankings were almost constant #4 and #5 traded places.
MIDSEASON REPORT
Looking back at my projected F4 and how they did:
BECKER 9-1 3 RPI 9 SOS WIS #4
Carlbuzz has his team already in gear with a great non-conf. Only 1 loss in a tough schedule is surley a positive. The loss itself a 2 point loss at the hands of the (at the time) #1 team in the nation. So nothing extreme to worry about there. Hallum is scorer like crazy as predicited and Becker looks comforatable to end the regular season with just 1 loss with an easy conf schedule upcoming.
Best Wins 7,8,26,50
Worst loss 2
Top 25 RPI 2-1
Top 50 2-0
51-100 2-0
101-199 2-0
200+ 1-0
Worries, a weak conf schedule could cause Becker to end up with a 2 seed or 3 seed if the competition continues this strong.
Non-conf guess 10-0
Actual 9-1
Previous Forecast: F4
New Forecast: SAME(F4) 1 seed(=)
Drew 10-0 1 RPI 13 SOS #1 WIS
dtm has his crew looking like title favorites at the moment as the WIS+RPI leader. Drew's 3 point shooting is fantastic getting a lot of 3's in the game, 20+ in 9/10 games. With a conf dtm has done extremely well in the past a undefeated regular season is highly possible, but will be toughly earned with future games including 3 teams top 30 rpi(#24 twice) Drew will look to finish top in RPI and likely top 15 sos, getting a 1 seed should be a breeze with room for a slip-up or two.
Best Wins: 6,16, 20, 22, 23
T25 games 5-0
26-50 3-0
51-100 none
101-200 2-0
Worries: Drew goes undefeated and has a hidden weakness that I can't find and some coach exploits that for the upset(likeliness to happen, roughly the same chance I have with Kate Upton)
Non-conf guess 8-2
Actual 10-0
Previous prediction F4
New prediction SAME (F4) 1 seed(=)
NYU 7-3 23 RPI 3 SOS WIS #23
TJ made his team run through the gauntlent, and his 3 SOS shows for it. His team survives with only a few expected scratches. Losses were expected and none were horrifying or even bad at all. Hall and Carstensen are shooting a bit poorly but have put the team on their back and it's working, with NYU's defense holding opponents to 59 ppg. A little worrisome with only a 3ppg margin but with not 1 sim or any easy games, it shouldn't be expected of them to have a large margin. NYU heads into conf play with 2 big games against 21st rpi Rochester twice, this will determine conf crown, and should be TJ's only "tough" obstacles for a undefeated conf season.
Best Wins: 2,6
Worst losses 1,17,38
T25 2-2
26-50 3-1
51-100 1-0
101-200 1-0
201+ none
Worries: NYU runs into a team capable of stopping the Hall/Carstensen combo with elite ath/spd/def guards. Heavy 3 point shooting gives FTA disparity advantage to opp.
Projected non-conf 7-3
actual 7-3
previous projection F4
new projected E8 2 seed
I moved NYU down from F4 to E8 for the heavy reliance on 2 guards and I think facing a 1/2 seed team with the ability to stop the offense will cause NYU to be knocked out in the E8, I still believe NYU has F4 potential, but I project a knockout in the regional final now for that reason.
Cal Tech 8-2 2 RPI 6 SOS #2 WIS
(my team so I will write I from now on) I've done a pretty good job, glad to be back in elite tier conversation. The win against Becker really boosted my confidence, however an upset to an unranked team(talented) has me a little disappointed in my coaching, I think I could've made some changes that would've got me the dub, and would expect a win in a rematch but I learned from the loss so I got something out of it, so I hopefully don't make the same mistake again.
Best wins: 3,17,26
Worst loses: 23,61
T25 3-1
26-50 2-0
51-100 0-1
101-200 2-0
200+ 1-0
Worries: High speed teams are worrisome, however my high speed team test matchup I won, and costly coaching mistakes are still prevalent and a future worry.
Projected record: 8-2
actual 8-2
Previous Forecast F4 3 seed
New forcast Elite 8 1 seed
I moved myself up to a 1 seed with my 8-2 record and 2/6 rpi/sos I will be facing the top rpi conf, and I honestly still think I can manage 2 loses at worst and maintain a top 5 rpi and finish top 10 sos. I dropped myself to the Elite 8 as I figure I will screw the pooch coaching and get upset in the regional final by a strong coach who can gameplan my team. Potential wise if I don't screw up I think I could make the F4.
New Projections
Conf RPI: S. Cal
F4:
Drew- My favorite for the title, think its too strong a team to stop. Elite coach and elite roster. Don't think there is a high chance of upset
Becker- Another elite team with an elite coach, slight risk with zone defense, but Carlbuzz will lead his team to the final four its too good a roster
Menlo- I'm solely basing this on anavrin's coaching record he has too be a top 3 coach if not #1 at FB/FCP, especially with not "dominant" paper teams, and this FB/FCP will be a 2-5 seed that makes a run with its elite offense, however an early exit due to really low defense is possible, any other coach I'd say 2nd round or S16 if lucky, but anavrin will win with this team.
U of New England- Another "surprise" team with a nice record and solid showing in non-conf ill-mannered is showing he has a very capable team, heavy on sr/jr and fb/fcp is a great combo and one that I think will be the key to get this team to the F4. Most likely a 2-5 seed as well. FB/FCP has shown its advantages at D3 and U of New England will take full advantage and have a great season, on the downside maybe a S16 exit to one of the "upper echelon" teams capable of stopping the fb/fcp with an elite coach.
E8:
NYU
Cal Tech
Hanover
Webster
S16:
Wisconsin Eau, Claire(this is a struggle talent wise I think E8, maybe F4 if the right bracket, but new coach I don't know yet, so I went with established coaches)
PBA
Franklin
Pacific Lutheran
Dickinson
Howard Payne
Piedmont
Blackburn
And my surprise cinderella team would be between Whittier, Farleigh Dickinson Florham, or Marymount.(couldn't just pick one haha, so I guess 3 potential surprise teams again)
If I was to guess the NT game I'd say Drew verse Becker and Drew wins it all.
4/14/2015 3:52 PM (edited)