Posted by hughesjr on 5/7/2018 3:01:00 PM (view original):
If one wanted to PROVE that there is a problem with the quickshot offense vs the +5 .. the way to determine that is not what happened in one game or what a person remembers from reading the play by play. The reasons are obvious.

1) The sample size is obviously too small for one game to mean anything.

2) You really only remember things that stand out when reading those play-by-plays.

So, if someone thinks there is a major issue, that person should take the time to gather the data that is necessary to analyse the issue. Data does not lie. If you take every PBP from every game in all worlds and look for all quickshots vs +5 .. you will have how many are made and how many are missed .. you can compare that to a teams 3 point percentage, etc, for meaningful analysis and maybe get something changed, if needed.

Just ******** about it on the forums will accomplish nothing however.

I'm not sure having the data and then ******** about it will accomplish anything either.

I've only got one close game so far this season. Was up by 5 with 0:40 left to play when SIM opponent went to quick shot. I don't have my defense set up to change while winning, so I was still at a 0 defense, but SIM opponent went 2/2 on 3PT attempts in the last 0:40 despite going 5/18 (0.278) in the previous 39:20. Possible, but warrants continued monitoring for sure.

I'm actually interested in going back to this season and comparing the last minute 3 pt shooting percentages against +5.

7-21 in world 2. So far, looking at 3-2 +2 defense holding opponents under 33%.

Could very well be confirmation bias, but my impression so far in looking at these situations is that the 3-2 plays a bigger part in holding back our opponents 3pt attempts - in “forcing” 2-pt attempts - than the +2 setting. I’m seeing lots of opponents’ 2-pt attempts in the final minutes.

Posted by thewizard17 on 5/7/2018 4:39:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually interested in going back to this season and comparing the last minute 3 pt shooting percentages against +5.

Craig Hardnett nailed 3 against KU in the final minute, but that’s because he’s a killer.

We still lost, because he didn’t hit the 4th.

A couple seasons ago at Cockburst I ran +5 the whole game the entire season for ***** and giggles. Made the E8 so it was a decent team and they were in a brutal conference. I'll pull up the stats on 2pt and 3pt.

3-20 at the D3 level for the 3-2 +2 in late game / quick shot situations.

Posted by Benis on 5/7/2018 4:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 5/7/2018 3:01:00 PM (view original):
If one wanted to PROVE that there is a problem with the quickshot offense vs the +5 .. the way to determine that is not what happened in one game or what a person remembers from reading the play by play. The reasons are obvious.

1) The sample size is obviously too small for one game to mean anything.

2) You really only remember things that stand out when reading those play-by-plays.

So, if someone thinks there is a major issue, that person should take the time to gather the data that is necessary to analyse the issue. Data does not lie. If you take every PBP from every game in all worlds and look for all quickshots vs +5 .. you will have how many are made and how many are missed .. you can compare that to a teams 3 point percentage, etc, for meaningful analysis and maybe get something changed, if needed.

Just ******** about it on the forums will accomplish nothing however.

I'm not sure having the data and then ******** about it will accomplish anything either.

Maybe not, but having no data surely won't accomplish anything.

+5 is a killer on the boards, that's why I think I ran it twice against monstrous shooting teams.

I guess Hughes just chose to ignore the posts where I said I did just that with a sample size of 50 ish shots

Posted by shoe3 on 5/7/2018 12:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/7/2018 11:30:00 AM (view original):
All a +5 defense does is apply a penalty to the 3FGA. It also reduces the #'s of 3fga in most cases.

Because it's jsut some sort of % reduction, it doesn't turn bad defenses into great ones, it just makes them less bad. The problem is that Mully's team usually have really good defense's so they should go from really good to really gooder!

While he is a giant Whiney McWhiney pants, he probably has some sort of point that it isn't working as intended if teams 3FGA% is actually higher vs a +5 than his normal defense.

I figure it’s between 1 and 2% per setting degree. I suspect HCA and the regression to mean matter more. The single most important factor in late-game quick shot success rate is (and should be) the quality of your opponent’s perimeter shooters.

I'd be thrilled if it was a 1-1.5% per setting adjustment. But any decrease to the 3pt shot should have an identical increase to shots in the paint.
And vice versa for "-" settings.

But from everything I've ever gotten back from him, they removed that effect ~8 years ago.

Posted by mullycj on 5/8/2018 10:49:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/7/2018 12:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/7/2018 11:30:00 AM (view original):
All a +5 defense does is apply a penalty to the 3FGA. It also reduces the #'s of 3fga in most cases.

Because it's jsut some sort of % reduction, it doesn't turn bad defenses into great ones, it just makes them less bad. The problem is that Mully's team usually have really good defense's so they should go from really good to really gooder!

While he is a giant Whiney McWhiney pants, he probably has some sort of point that it isn't working as intended if teams 3FGA% is actually higher vs a +5 than his normal defense.

I figure it’s between 1 and 2% per setting degree. I suspect HCA and the regression to mean matter more. The single most important factor in late-game quick shot success rate is (and should be) the quality of your opponent’s perimeter shooters.

I'd be thrilled if it was a 1-1.5% per setting adjustment. But any decrease to the 3pt shot should have an identical increase to shots in the paint.
And vice versa for "-" settings.

But from everything I've ever gotten back from him, they removed that effect ~8 years ago.

What else have you gotten back? From the ticket you copied on the first page, it doesn’t suggest the effect was removed, just that it was no longer dramatic.

Yeah I know......removed is not correct.

But severely limited

Season 115 I ran +5 in every single game including the postseason. 116 and 117 I just ran my normal setup which was usually -2 to 0 range.

Season	RPI	SOS	Points per 100 Poss.	eFG%	FG%	2PT%	2PTA	3PT%	3PTA
115	7	7	92.3	48%	44%	49%	76%	30%	24%
116	3	2	80.6	45%	40%	44%	67%	31%	33%
117	9	9	90.5	48%	43%	49%	69%	31%	31%

Pretty interesting that you can see the number of 3s attempted dropped significantly when running +5 but the 3pt% was very close to the others - where I was running - defense a lot of the time.

Also, 2Pt% defense was at 49% in the season I ran +5 which is exactly what it was when running minus defenses in season 117.

Season 116 was the best as that was by far the best defensive team I had of the 3. But as you can see - 3pt% defense basically the same as the others - the defense was in 2pt%.

Net takeaway - +5 defense is fubar!