Posted by The_Creeper on 1/22/2022 10:25:00 PM (view original):
Its unfortunate some a$$hole tried to tell you what you can say and where, that usually never works on me.......Its a free country, everyone can have an opinion. Its when one side tries to tell the other what they can / cannot do or say when the issues start....and the first political statement in this thread was NOT made by me. Nothing personal, just a fact.

Civilized communities have rules in order to remain civilized and free.

This is not the place for this stuff as said by The Doctor so no more from me about this.

Any deadballer with a low HR/9+. The pricing system acts like they’re gonna give up their fair share of HRs, but they never do. My biggest gripe is 539 HR/9+ Maddux giving up more homers than 70 HR/9+ Ed Summers, but I digress.

I like 1888 Gus Krock, and 1914 Dick Rudolph. I don’t swear by them however bc my rotation usually has Tully Sparks, Christy Mathewson, and Cy Young.

My favorite 3 man rotation consists of 2011 Halladay and 2011 Haren - and then 2010 Lee, 1992 Tewksbury, or 97 Neagle in the 3rd slot.

I get +/- 300ip out of each and even playing in Hilltop just had Halladay finish with a 1.28 whip and Haren a 1.17 whip.

Agree. Out of respect for Doc who is a quality dude, Im out on this. If anyone wants to continue the "debate" SM me. hahah. We all need to guard from too many rules and being "managed" by opposing sides. Every difference of opinion should be respected and tolerated, it is not personal and everything doesnt have to raise anger hard feelings.

Now can we talk about why "Big Daddy" Reuschel gets no respect in WIS...the dude is an innings eater and fairs well even in higher cap leagues.

Posted by d_rock97 on 1/23/2022 1:40:00 AM (view original):
Any deadballer with a low HR/9+. The pricing system acts like they’re gonna give up their fair share of HRs, but they never do. My biggest gripe is 539 HR/9+ Maddux giving up more homers than 70 HR/9+ Ed Summers, but I digress.

I like 1888 Gus Krock, and 1914 Dick Rudolph. I don’t swear by them however bc my rotation usually has Tully Sparks, Christy Mathewson, and Cy Young.

1994 Greg Maddux gives up less home runs, not more, than 1909 Ed Summers over the long haul (and assuming other things equal). Look at the # number instead of the + number.

yeah the performance history (big sample size for both) also has Maddux giving up fewer home runs

Posted by 06gsp on 1/23/2022 11:30:00 AM (view original):
yeah the performance history (big sample size for both) also has Maddux giving up fewer home runs

Well, in my defense, I’ve had this view for so long, it must’ve been long enough for the performance history to change for Maddux. Because Maddux used to give up more HRs in less innings than Summers.

Still think that a guy with a 70 HR/9+ should give up more than 10 HRs over 310+ IPs

for me the issue with guys like Summers is less the number of home runs allowed and more that they're not priced (originally at least) according to how many home runs they'll actually give up. the real 1909 Ed Summers gave up four home runs in 281.2 innings. having someone with those stats be home run prone is very unrealistic. if the pricing algorithm used the 0.24 HR/9# instead of the 70 HR/9+, he never would have been a cookie in the first place.

In 1909 Summers played in Bennett Park which has a +3/+3 HR effect. And the Detroit Tigers had about 20 HR for the whole season and 9 were from Ty Cobb.

In the whole league 9 was topps and then a few 7s and a few 6s. Only ten with 5 or more. Some 4s and something like 24-50 rank is all 2 or 3.

I understand the deadball thing but I cant see how this can be normalized with rank 11 - 50 all bunched from 4-2 HR.

Posted by 06gsp on 1/23/2022 3:18:00 PM (view original):
for me the issue with guys like Summers is less the number of home runs allowed and more that they're not priced (originally at least) according to how many home runs they'll actually give up. the real 1909 Ed Summers gave up four home runs in 281.2 innings. having someone with those stats be home run prone is very unrealistic. if the pricing algorithm used the 0.24 HR/9# instead of the 70 HR/9+, he never would have been a cookie in the first place.

But he's also priced for the extra errors he'll allow, which from our test league, that counteracted the lack of HRs such that on a price basis you get the same R/G per $ from deadballers giving up fewer HRs and more errors as modern guys giving up fewer errors and more HRs. Choose your poison and plan around it with your park and defense, but from a value perspective, they're priced pretty equally (even before/after factoring dynamic pricing, too).

Years ago zubinsum posted a list of pitchers that seemed to be under and over priced base don the current base model for pricing. And I pointed this out back then, and still hold to it (especially post testing), that they weren't underpriced or overpriced, but his valuation wasn't including the errors from normalization or the pitchers hitting stats.

Same issue arises in cookies, people gravitate to the deadballers because they LOOK like a bargain when they have better WHIP, OAV, and ERA, which are all positively impacted for the pitcher with errors. Errors reduce their OAV, their ERA, and have no impact on their WHIP. So, the pitchers that had more errors behind them look better and when using them in sim, the stats do the same thing. They see Bernhard put up a 3.20 ERA and think he was great, but the errors he allowed had him giving up 5.20 R/G, and the '76 Blue will put up similar R/G with an ERA of 4.05 due to fewer errors and people think at a glance that Bernhard was the better pitcher, when they were essentially identical.

It's why '08 Joss was so popular. He looked to be a great buy at a glance, but ultimately his performance wasn't any different than they other $12m pitchers when you factored errors in. I build most of my teams around the idea that most of my opponents will have deadball pitching and guys like Bernhard often give up 6+ runs against my teams due to the errors.

I was a deadballer until very recently. Got sick of all the errors/unearned runs. So far, I'm liking the results with my non-deadball guys.

I will forever hate giving up homers, as they’re a guaranteed run. I’ll take my chances on the errors as it’ll still take 3 batters to not make an out for a run to be scored. As analytics push towards swinging for the fences, I’ll do my best to prevent the longball.

just4me you're putting too much faith in the results of that one test league. there is no doubt the extra errors you get with deadballers make a big difference, and I certainly don't think deadballers are better than modern pitchers across the board, but before dynamic pricing Summers and his ilk were underpriced because of their HR rate relative to the rest of the league.

compare 1909 Summers to 1967 Fergie Jenkins. similar WHIP#, similar salaries pre-dynamic pricing, and Jenkins has a HR/9+ of 73 to Summers' 70. Except Jenkins gives up 37 HRs on average in the performance history and Summers gives up 10. There is no way in hell the worse defense behind Summers is going to come close to making up for 27 extra home runs.