Question for those who like math. Topic

jvford
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Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 3:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 12/6/2011 3:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 2:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually probably going to track OAV by pitcher/catcher combination over the course of the MG season.  hopefully the results will be scintillating!
I actually did this in S12 of Moneyball after higher PC C had a higher cERA in S11.  Of course, my SP ended up with higher OAV pitching to my higher PC C.
yeah, i think it's going to take a good 8-10 seasons to become statistically significant.

but i figure 2 mins a day to log this stuff won't be so bad.  maybe if i get really ambitious i'll firesale you gorkys bautista in MB so i can platoon two catchers and expedite the experiment :p
The problem is that you need to have a pretty good spread between the PC of the two catchers.  When I did it, the spread was only 22.  I believe the experiment would become statistically significant much quicker with a larger spread.

But then, who the hell wants to give playing time to a catcher with a PC of 40?
12/6/2011 3:57 PM
iain
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Depends how good his bat and arm are, I guess.... I'm fine with mid-40s (assuming they are All-Stars, otherwise), and even had a guy with a Gold Glove with 43 PC.
12/6/2011 4:04 PM
deathinahole
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GG means that he didn't give up errors and threw out base runners. 43 PC affects none of that.
12/6/2011 4:05 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by iain on 12/6/2011 3:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 3:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 3:06:00 PM (view original):
And, OAV is the worng thing to track. Yes it will be lower, but don't use your "this much lower OAV =" bullshit. Stick to the ERA, and then work backwards.
seeing that PC directly affects OAV, i'm pretty sure that's the correct thing to track.
100% agree... and I'm glad someone finally said this.

ERA has too much noise (walks, just for openers) for this kind of a study, considering OAV is the only thing PC affects directly.
Maybe.  But it's the same pitchers throwing to the same batters. 

Since I'm not a statnerd, I had no desire to track something like that for 10 seasons when CERA is listed on the fieldig stats page. 

Again, if there is a goddam pattern, there is a goddam pattern.    To me, the only thing left to argue is "How much?"   My data suggests 1 PC point = 0.012.    My recent results indicate "Good ballpark number".  
12/6/2011 4:05 PM
iain
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jv asked a question, and I answered... the answer is: me.

See:  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Al Aguilar and  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Fred Benson (when he was in SD)
12/6/2011 4:07 PM
jvford
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Neither of those catchers have a PC of 40. ;-)
12/6/2011 4:17 PM
MikeT23
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Looks like the early days of MG had me using a 50 and an 85.  Early in Coop I had a 95 and an 81 that I used with upper 50s. 

A quick glance tells me that Joey Belle must have brought the average down because both of those worlds were doing more than 40 PC = 0.48 ERA.

Of course, I played in Dover in JB so more hitting.    Chas-pitchers, Roc-neutral, Dov-hitters.
12/6/2011 4:27 PM
deanod
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Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 3:32:00 PM (view original):
If you believe everything you're told, sure.

If you prefer to measure everything so your results are not biased, then don't.
Uh, measuring everything only makes your results MORE biased.
12/6/2011 5:05 PM
MikeT23
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Can results even be biased?   They're just results not opinions.
12/6/2011 5:07 PM
deanod
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/6/2011 5:07:00 PM (view original):
Can results even be biased?   They're just results not opinions.

Sure, why not.

They're the results of what somebody's opinion is the best way of measuring things.  i.e. John Hollinger came up with a super duper point guard rating for the NBA a few years back, and he used shot attempts as the denominator.  So it ended up being heavily biased toward people who were terrible at scoring as opposed to solely elite passers.

And in this case, I mostly just meant foggy and inaccurate but I wanted to keep up the chain use of the word "bias."

12/6/2011 5:13 PM
iain
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Statgeek semantics.  Awesome.
12/6/2011 5:14 PM
MikeT23
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I don't believe results can be biased.  The manner in which one reaches said results, i.e. the formula or program, can be biased but the results are just the results.  Many would argue that there's an East Coast bias in college polls.    If I had to guess, I'd say there are more votes in the East so that's gonna happen.   Put all the voters in California and, once they slept off their Sunday morning wake and bake, they'd vote for Stanford, Oregon and some other craptastic WC team.
12/6/2011 5:20 PM
deanod
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a biased method leads to biased results, obviously
12/6/2011 5:46 PM
bigal888
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just to sidetrack the discussion even further; isn't PC just a modifier on the pitcher's pitches, which are in turn collectively used in the determination of the outcome of each AB (it's known that individual pitches aren't thrown and each AB is the result of a single determining calculation)?  In theory, a PC rating of 40 working with a pitcher that only has pitches rated 90 and above is going to have little to no effect on the outcome, correct?  And vice versa in that a PC of 40 working with pitches of 40, 50 60 and 90 is going to have a dramatic effect.  Shouldn't any statistical analysis start with this knowledge to try and determine how that modifier is applied?

I know for a fact from either developer chat or Admin forum chat that pitches aren't individually called and they act as a group, with the PC of the catcher determining the weights of each pitch in the overall formula that determines the result of each at bat.
12/6/2011 5:52 PM
deanod
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**** if I know.

 

All I remember hearing about the pitch calling is that it directly affects OAV, if the effect is more drastic on pitcher's with a wider range of quality in pitches, then I'm probably not going to be the one who adds that dimension to any analysis.

12/6/2011 5:59 PM
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