Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

toddcommish
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Now even DIAH is piling on... must be slow after the trade deadline....

2/29/2012 4:04 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by antoncresten on 2/29/2012 4:03:00 PM (view original):
THIRD BASE
2BMPBOF
2/29/2012 4:19 PM
jrd_x
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Allow me to take a step back.

Instead of saying that a pitcher has no control over what happens to a ball in play, let's say that looking back over 3000 or 4000 or 5000 innings, we can't really tell what was and what wasn't his fault.

FIP isn't perfect.  It isn't all encompassing.  It isn't the only stat we should use.

But it's better than most.

We have the choice between including too many non-pitcher inputs (all the things that go into ERA and WHIP that the pitcher doesn't control - mainly defense and luck) or leaving out a few minor actual pitcher inputs (things a pitcher might do to lower their BABIP).

I prefer to go with the later.  You might disagree.
2/29/2012 4:35 PM
jrd_x
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And this is pretty good:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
2/29/2012 5:05 PM
tecwrg
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In summary:

Batter 1: Line drive double off the wall
Batter 2: Line drive double off the wall, 1 run in
Batter 3: Strikeout, 1 out
Batter 4: Line drive double off the wall, 2 runs in
Batter 5: Line drive double off the wall, 3 runs in
Batter 6: Strikeout, 2 outs
Batter 7: Line drive double off the wall, 4 runs in
Batter 8: Line drive double off the wall, 5 runs in
Batter 9: Strikeout, inning over

All in all, a pretty good inning for the pitcher.  Everything he was able to control, he did perfectly.  He had a perfect FIP - three strikeouts and no walks or home runs allowed.  The six hits and five runs scored can be disregarded because they all came off of balls in play, and are out of the pitcher's control.

Did I miss anything?
2/29/2012 5:13 PM
deathinahole
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What if batter 7 was actually a triple?
2/29/2012 5:19 PM
jrd_x
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So what?

What if a pitcher gives up 1 home run every inning he pitches but nothing else.  His WHIP is 1.0.  Wow, he's a good pitcher.  Except he's not.  And, like your example, this isn't realistic.
2/29/2012 5:19 PM
Jtpsops
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WHIP and ERA in tandem are usually pretty reliable. Low WHIP + Low ERA = great pitcher. High WHIP + Low ERA = unreliable but great at getting out of jams. Low WHIP + High ERA = likely good stuff, but poor command and lots of HR.  High WHIP + High ERA = sucks.

Each of those stats gives you valuable information. BABIP does not offer anything off value. All that information (and a lot more) can be gained from WHIP.
2/29/2012 5:50 PM
jrd_x
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Steve Carlton was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter.
2/29/2012 6:01 PM
tecwrg
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Based on the logic used to dismiss WHIP as a meaningful statistic for pitchers, I think we need to also disregard other stats like ERA, ERA+, and even runs allowed by a pitcher.

Follow along, if you can:

1)  BABIP shows us that hits that are not home runs are a factor of luck, and a pitcher has no control or influence over them
2)  Many runs scored during the course of a game are constructed by events which often include, and may in fact primarily be, non-HR hits
3)  Therefore, the pitcher has very little influence on the number of runs he allows because he cannot control the hits he allows
4)  If runs are disregarded, then ERA must in turn be disregarded because half of it's numerator is a subset of allowed runs, i.e. earned runs
5)  If ERA is disregarded, then ERA+ must be disregarded because  it is a normalization of ERA

Did I miss anything?
2/29/2012 6:02 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/29/2012 6:01:00 PM (view original):
Steve Carlton was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter.
Except that he wasn't.  They were basically the same pitcher with virtually identical statistics.
2/29/2012 6:03 PM
toddcommish
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Except for the month of October, when Hunter was clearly better.
2/29/2012 6:04 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/29/2012 6:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/29/2012 6:01:00 PM (view original):
Steve Carlton was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter.
Except that he wasn't.  They were basically the same pitcher with virtually identical statistics.
Really?

For the 3400 or so innings they both pitched: 
3.04 to 3.26 ERA
119 to 104 ERA+
1.225 to 1.134 WHIP
3.19 to 3.66 FIP
58.8 to 32.5 WAR

And then Carlton went on to pitch another 1800 innings at a level high enough that he didn't fall behind Hunter in any stat that he lead when Hunter retired.
2/29/2012 6:12 PM
rsp777
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/29/2012 11:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg2 on 2/29/2012 11:08:00 AM (view original):
He's got going to answer.  You have to wonder why not.
You know exactly why not.

You won't tell me whether or not you altered the stats.
No, it's because you're a chicken-**** who has done nothing but prove to EVERYONE reading this thread that you are AFRAID to back up your supposedly superior ability to judge players based on stats alone.
2/29/2012 7:13 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by rsp777 on 2/29/2012 7:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/29/2012 11:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg2 on 2/29/2012 11:08:00 AM (view original):
He's got going to answer.  You have to wonder why not.
You know exactly why not.

You won't tell me whether or not you altered the stats.
No, it's because you're a chicken-**** who has done nothing but prove to EVERYONE reading this thread that you are AFRAID to back up your supposedly superior ability to judge players based on stats alone.
Hey genius, I already answered him.

Moron.
2/29/2012 7:13 PM
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