We got to cast our own ballots in tec's thread but, since none of us have actual votes, our ballots won't impact anything. If you've seen any of my other posts, you know I'm hoping the BWAA puts in ten guys (fingers crossed).

How many do you think get elected this year? And who do you think it will be?

I'm thinking four is conservative (RJ, Pedro, Biggio, Smoltz), with a decent shot at 5 (Piazza), and an outside shot at six (Bagwell). Though six would be unprecedented and probably next to impossible considering that the average ballot only has eight-ish votes on it.

You really see Smoltz as essentially a lock?

I'm with you on Johnson, Pedro, and Biggio, and a shot at Piazza.  But I don't see what sets Smoltz apart with the voters from say, a guy like Schilling who isn't even all that close.

I think it's surprising but he's on almost all the publicly released ballots. I think he sails in easily. And yes, if it were up to me, I'd put Schilling and Mussina in before Smoltz.

I just looked at the vote tracker - I'd wait a bit on that - they only have 15% of the ballots, and there are several guys there who are trending really high relative to what I would expect them to get.  Schilling is at 60% having just gotten 30% last year, Mussina's also up 25%, etc.   And the average votes per ballot is over 9, so these are inclusive voters.

Did you look at this one AlCheez?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/beat/Hall%20of%20Fame/

I think this years class will be Randy, Pedro, Smoltz, & Biggio and all 4 are very deserving.

Okay, that one has a few more votes, but only 18% and shows basically the same trends - Piazza at 16% over where he was last year, Schilling 30%, Bagwell almost 20%, Mussina over 20%, Raines 16%

I will grant you that Smoltz is definitely a better first time candidate than I expected, but I still wouldn't call him a lock yet, some of these guys are going to have their totals drop significantly.

Posted by AlCheez on 12/30/2014 3:47:00 PM (view original):
I just looked at the vote tracker - I'd wait a bit on that - they only have 15% of the ballots, and there are several guys there who are trending really high relative to what I would expect them to get.  Schilling is at 60% having just gotten 30% last year, Mussina's also up 25%, etc.   And the average votes per ballot is over 9, so these are inclusive voters.

I think the average votes per ballot last year was over 8, so it's not that far off in terms of inclusiveness. Maybe these are sampling Smoltz too high, I guess we'll see.

You're right, I was looking at 2013 when it was just under 7.

Posted by AlCheez on 12/30/2014 3:01:00 PM (view original):
You really see Smoltz as essentially a lock?

I'm with you on Johnson, Pedro, and Biggio, and a shot at Piazza.  But I don't see what sets Smoltz apart with the voters from say, a guy like Schilling who isn't even all that close.

The number 1 pitcher Smoltz is most similar to according to baseball-reference.com is Curt Schilling!

Exactly.  It's really bizarre to me that Smoltz would have that much additional support.  And Schilling currently running at 60% is the biggest "yeah, that's not happening" on the publicly released ballots.

Posted by AlCheez on 12/30/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):
Exactly.  It's really bizarre to me that Smoltz would have that much additional support.  And Schilling currently running at 60% is the biggest "yeah, that's not happening" on the publicly released ballots.

Schilling is an *******. Smoltz is so considerate that he carries an extra set of knee pads around in case the writers want to blow him on a hard surface.

Yeah, fair enough. But still, I think it's pretty clear the current sample is really being generous to Schilling, so I'll be interested to see where the numbers go since they are similar.

I think Schilling, Smoltz, & Mussina all belong in the HOF.

My votes would be for Big Unit, Pedro, Biggio and Piazza.

I think Unit, Pedro and Biggio make it for sure.  Piazza will be close and may hit 75% to make it in.

I think Smoltz falls just short of belonging, but if he sneaks in it may be because he gets a boost from riding the coat tails of Maddux, Glavine and Cox going in this year.

Posted by Got_Worms on 12/30/2014 3:50:00 PM (view original):
Did you look at this one AlCheez?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/beat/Hall%20of%20Fame/

I think this years class will be Randy, Pedro, Smoltz, & Biggio and all 4 are very deserving.

111 ballots counted so far and it looks like Smoltz, Bagwell, Biggio, and Piazza slipped a little bit.