Ok, today I got the 6 conferences I have ranked highest today.
For those who are really attentive: Yes I did update the previous posts, and yes the results did make me slightly change the rankings
Without further ado here goes the rest of the conference previews:
6. CIAA GUESS ranking: 8th, WIS ranking after day 5: 7th, current record: 29-31
The CIAA remains really top heavy. Basically it is NCCU and Virginia State both deeply entrenched in the top ten. At least Winston Salem State is approaching profiency.
Top teams
The favorite: NCCU (5-0)
Contenders: Virginia State (4-1)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Winston Salem State (4-1),
NCCU vs Virginia State will be the final again. With its 16 seniors, maybe this is the season V state can push orangepace off the pedestal. The OOC already has a nice win over SEO Durant. Winston Salem State improved a lot in GUESS this season, and is not as young as before. It is not enough to contend for the championship, but it is getting close to playoff ready.
Top 3 regular season games
1. NCCU-Virginia State, on season day 6
Almost certainly a preview of the championship game, and one ofn the best games in conference play has to offer across all of division II.
2. WSSU vs Virginia State on season day 8
It wouldn’t win the division, but it would help dramatically with an at large for WSSU.
3. WSSU at NCCU on day 9
If WSSU wants the east, this is where they will have to take it.
5. Northern Sun GUESS rankings: 3rd, WIS ranking after day 5: 8th, current record: 28-32
Last season should have been a rebuild for UMC. Instead they went 19-0 and won the Natty. So the faves are clear this season. What happens in the south might be interesting though.
Top teams
The favorite: Minnesota Crookston, (4-1)
Contenders: Northern State (2-3)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: West Virginia State (4-1), Winona State (4-1)
UMC won it all last season with 15 upper classmen. Well this season there are 19 juniors… but still only 6 seniors. So seeing as this team is insanely talented, I am not sure anyone can really scare them in confrence, but that one OOC loss showed that they are at least not entirely immune to the competition. Northern Sates OOC was rough, particularly that loss to Findlay hurt. Luckily it gets easier in conference, with only really one game they could potentially lose. But if they do not manage to go undefeated until the CCG, then it will get close for an at large. Despite GUESS ratings saying they should not be close, West Virginia State made the playoffs twice in a row… and now their team is actually having talent with which you are supposed to have a shot at getting there. The OOC went accordingly with wins over St cloud and Truman. I think the talent gap is too big to really scare UMC, but not necessarily to big to scare northern state. The cross division is a lot tougher for them than for northern though. I don’t really have Duluth on the list this season, due to the fact that they have more freshmen than upperclassmen. With Winona State you have another one of those sims that overperformed in OOC and theoretically have a shot at the playoffs, if things go surprisinglywell inconference also. Unlikely, though.
Top 3 regular season games:
1. West Virginia State vs Northern State on day 9
This game is probably for the south. And maybe also for entry to the playoffs
2. Crookston-West Virginia State on day 7
A good game with quality. Not losing to heavily to help its MOV has to be the goal for WVS
3. West Virginia State vs Minnesota Duluth on day 8
If dukers wantto stay in the south race before in division games even start, then he needs this one..
4. GSC, GUESS ranking: 7th, WIS ranking after day 5: 3rd, current record: 39-21
Delta may still be the favorite, but Valdosta has reduced the gap a lot, and several others are also be witin throwing distance. This conference is definitely starting to be one of the deeper ones out there. With all the good as well as a healty dose of cupcake wins the conference has accumulated in OOC, there might be extra playoff spots up for grabs.
The favorite: Delta State (5-0)
Contenders: Central Arkansas (3-2), Valdosta State (5-0), West Georgia (5-0)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Arkansas-Monticello (5-0), Henderson State (5-0)
Delta State Lost some pretty good players to graduation, and while it is still the most talented team, the difference is not big any more. Valdosta States big class is the juniors, and that has helped close the gap. Valdosta definitely has the harder cross division though. UCA is slightly underranked by GUESS, since it took 4 SIM recruits. West Georgia is likely to make the battle for the north a really even one, as this team took a leap forward this season. UAM would be a contender in the north, but in the south it is unlikely to get past both Delta and Valdosta and on top of this has a tough cross division. In addtion to this, SIM Henderson State may help the conference, as its OOC went so well, it is still theoretically in the running for a playoff spot.
A good amount of choices was available here too.
Top 3 regular season games
1. Delta State vs Valdosta State on day 13
The game that likely decides the south….and might be looked at as an early final.
2. UCA vs West Georgia on day 12
Probably the deciding battle for the north
3. West Georgia vs Ark-Monticello on day 6
Monticello has a tough cross division, and this is the kind of game they need to win to get an at large again.
3. Lone Star Conference GUESS ranking: 5th, WIS ranking 4th after day 5: current record: 37-23
I was able to bump my conference up, primarily due to a nice OOC performance, but also due to improved teams according to GUESS.
The Favorite: Oklahoma Durant (4-1).
Contenders: Abilene Christian (4-1), Central Oklahoma (5-0)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Texas A&M commerce (4-1), West Texas A&M (4-1)
SEO two consecutive titles and a top 4 GUESS rankings: clearly the favorite. But others are still within ear shot. For UCO, having 16 seniors, this might be an important season to capitalize. That is all the more true as the recruiting class was less than stellar. With a win over Mansfield ACU has already proven in the OOC, that it is dangerous this season as well and the favorite in the south. But while I don’t see Texas A&M commerce winning the conference, I could imagine that this is the season they coud upset ACU and get to the CCG. Moreover, it will be an interesting run at making the playoffs again this season, and the team is clearly improved from last season as the big class are now juniors. And West Texas A&M season start over cupcakes keeps them for moment in the playoff picture, but I fear this is not likely to last.
Top 3 regular season games:
1. SEO vs UCO on day 11
This game probably decides the north
2. SEO vs Abilene Christian on day 6
3. Texas A&M Commerce vs Abilene Christian on day 11
This game probably decides the south.
2. SIAC, GUESS ranking: 6th, WIS ranking after day 5: 2nd, current record: 33-27
With St Joseph turning SIM, this has become a three team league…but all three teams can make a case to be top ten teams. Whenever two humans play, this conference will be fun to watch. I really might have anointed any of the three the favorites. On top of this some SIMS have really overperformed in OOC, and will make getting good seeding even easier.
The Favorite: Lane (3-2)
Contenders: Kentucky State (4-1) Quincy (5-0)
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Miles (5-0), Kentucky Weslyan (5-0)
Kentucky State is still the default the north champ. And good recruiting and more experience have led to the best GUESS ranking tlreese has at this school. The only position keeping me from calling them the favorites is the QB. After winning the conference, and making it to the national championship game Quincy is now rebuilding. Or reloading? The talent level is still really high. and by now we can safely assume that its coach is a very good game planner as well. Lane is a tad bit more experienced than last season, but also still young. But because they don’t have quite as outstanding a QB, they are rushing every now and then again this season. Still the overall improvement at all other skill positions makes this team very dangerous. The OOC losses –understandable as they were- hurt though. Although they likely only have seeding implications and not making it or not making it to the playoffs. Miles and Kentucky Weslyan are the types of surprise SIMs we see pop up every season, whos OOC went so well, they might have a shot at an at large if things go well in conference. But neither is close to threating for the CCG.
Top 3 games
1. Quincy vs Lane on day 10
The winner gets to play Kentucky state in the Championship game
2. Kentucky State vs Quincy on day 8
The best test for Kentucky State before what is highly likely to be the CCG
3. Kentucky State vs Miles on day 10
1. PSAC, GUESS ranking: 1st, WIS ranking after day 5: 1st, current record: 29-19
12 human coaches in a conference. Nice to see! Sadly enough it means that the additional recruiting money those coaches get from their playoff bids barely pay for the fact that they have to go more national in recruiting due to the cut throat competition for local recruits. In other news the gap between the PSAC and the next best conference got smaller, as while there are loads of good coaches, they did take more OOC losses than in other seasons. It could have been even worse though, the conference did manage 11 (!) wins on day 5.
Picking the future conference winner out of the 7 or 8 best teams feels like playing the lottery.
The favorite: Kutztown (5-0)
The Contenders: Slippery Rock (4-1), East Stroudsburg (5-0), Mansfield (2-3), Edinboro (5-0), Millersville (3-2), Indiana (4-1),
Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: California (3-2), West Chester (3-2)
Slippery Rock is part of the reason why the gap between the PSAC and the rest has gotten smaller. Jilin seemed to be asleep at the wheel lately, and whilte this is still the most talented team in the conference, this conference demands decent game planning, and I currently don’t see it from him. But if he comes back… then everyone be on their heels. If SR doesn’t win the west this season, Edinboro might be ready to win it this season as it has the wests highest GUESS rating and also managed to beat its OOC which to be honest only had one tough game, but a win over Bryant is still nice. I got Indiana a tad bit behind Edinboro, as they had to replace a decently sized senior class. But the difference can definitely be overcome. California has the same problem with just a tad bit less overall talent I’d say, and last seasons linebacker problem actually got worse this season, making me think that while they might upset several teams, only have outside chances to win it.
Despite a total cupcake OOC Kutztowns win margins were not always impressive. That said this team has as good as any team a chance to win the conference. The D may not quite be where it was last season, but the O should easily make up for that and the cross division is as easy as it will get in the PSAC. Millersville had an incredible season 97, won the conf and advanced to the quarters. But while this is still a really talented team, it only has 17 upper classmen. Finding the consistency from last season will be tough. The cross division does not do Millersville any favors either.
I was quite high on East Stroudsburg last season, but they did not quite produce at the level I imagined and lost in the first round of the playoffs. While I am a tad bit worried about O-line depth this season, that does not mean they might not turnaround this season and win the conference, particularly as they clearly have the easts easiest cross division schedule. Mansfield could also have been anointed the favorite, but having the hardest cross division imaginable did not help. Still the team is as talented as it ever was, has no obvious holes, and might be able to take advantage of several other teams being young this season. The OOC did not go all that well though, and now the line between challenging for the conference crown and missing the playoffs entirely is very thin. Among the new coaches West Chester probably has the best shot at a playoff spot. While I don't really see it happening unless they manage at least two big upsets, they did acrue the kind of OOC SSO that could be helpful.
My top 3 games
(again…. So many to chose from, so many that could actually be the deciding ones that are not on the list)
1. Millersville vs Kutztown on day 12
Last seasons champ against the potentially most talented team in the east late in the season when th division crown is likely not yet decided.
2. Slippery Rock vs Edinboro on day 10
Well this could be the decisive hame in the west. But it doesn’t have too.
3. Indiana vs Mansfield on day 7
An early joust that points the way toward division winning chances or playoff trouble
4. Millersville vs East Stroudsburg on day 10
Both teams will need this to set themselves up for east division title chances later on.