How expensive do you think 2016 Clayton Kershaw would be if the season ended today?

86.2 IP
0.646 WHIP
.169 OAV
0.4 HR/9
0.5 BB/9
10.9 K/9

Same price as Elton Chamberlain is my guess

I think he would be around $60,000 per IP, considering that his stats fall in between 1990 Eckersley ($63K/IP) and 2008 Rivera ($56K/IP). His great IP/G may skew that? Not sure if it factors in at all.

So that would make him around $5,200,200

I think you're overestimating. I don't see a huge gap between 2015 Rich Hill and the current version of Kershaw. Kershaw has slightly better HR/9 and BB/9 but worse OAV. They're both starters. And neither has had his price driven up so badly yet due to overuse. Hill has 50+ uses, but nothing like Rivera or Eck. Hill is $49K/IP. I'd expect Kershaw to be something like $54-$55K/IP.

If the season ended today, his innings would be pro-rated to 162 games, so his salary would easily be over 10M.

Ha, good point schwarze

With the news he might not pitch again this season, this is probably worth revisiting.

121 IP
.73 WHIP
.185 OAV
0.45 HR/9
0.70 BB/9
10.79 K/9

The partial 1918 Toney is a good comp:

112 IP
0.73 WHIP
.192 OAV
0.74 BB/9

Doesn't get much closer than that. Of course the K/9 are way off (Toney is 2.00 K/9).

Toney currently costs $5,086,083, but that's AFTER 2 consecutive bumps (I think) in the salary adjustment. Assumedly Kershaw's initial salary will be strictly based on the old formula, and then he may be adjusted over time based on usage. I think ~$5.1M is the rough ballpark for Kershaw.

I'd say that's a good estimate. The K's will bump up his price considerably compared to the base price of Toney.

I'd say $5.1-$5.3m is a very good estimate as well.

Posted by schwarze on 5/31/2016 11:28:00 AM (view original):
If the season ended today, his innings would be pro-rated to 162 games, so his salary would easily be over 10M.

Would it really? I thought seasons were prorated to 162 games when the actual season played (the schedule) was less than 162 games, not because a player did not play a full season.

If the season ended today the actual season played would be under 162 games. Kinda like the treatment of strike seasons.

I see the distinction. Thanks.

Sorry, I meant to say "if his season ended today...".

But damn, I didn't mean to jinx the guy.

Wow, 7.3M