Recently I have been completely shutdown in some playoff games where the opposing pitcher(s) were at 85%-88%. I'm sure this has been discussed, but is there any formula as to a pitcher's decreasing performance in conjunction with his fatigue level?  If possible I try to keep my starters at 100% during the season, and will take some chances to keep them at 100% for the play-offs should I be bothering, seems many are MORE effective fatigued.

My biggest pet peeve at WIS is how insignificant a role fatigue plays in performance. 

Well what is the sense of factoring fatigue if it has no effect? Why has it not been addressed by WIS? Obviously a rested team should have a huge advantage over a tired one. If it really doesn't matter, this sim is a joke.....on us....

It does have an effect.  What's never been clear is exactly how it works.

For example, what does a "99" mean for pitcher fatigue?  Does his walk rate go up 1%?  His OAV 1%?  His HR/9?  All of them?  Some combination?

Similar for hitters: does BA go down by 1%, walk rates, OBP, SLG, or what?  What about as fielders?

There are some owners who want a pitcher showing any fatigue at all to suddenly become worthless.  Maybe they're right, I don't know.

But consider Milacki for a second - lowest OAV in history for any pitcher with 25+ innings - he gave up 9 hits and 9 walks in 91 plate appearances. OAV of .110.  Suppose 90 fatigue means 10% worse OAV...so that's .121.  20% worse would be .132.  40% worse (60 fatigue) would be roughly .154.  A pitcher with an OAV of .154 is incredible...there are only 47 pitcher seasons in the entire WIS database with an OAV of .154 or better.

Even if his walk rate, HR rate, and other stats that go into the "outcome algorithm" used by WIS also decayed by 40%, he'd still be pretty incredible.

Now again, I'm not sure this is how fatigue works, but it's certainly possible.  And note that for a pitcher with an OAV of .200 (still really good), pitching at 60 fatigue would mean an OAV of .280....which would definitely be noticeable in the SIM.  For a pitcher with an OAV of .300, 60 fatigue would mean an OAV of .420, and he's going to get lit up by a Christmas tree.

So it's just possible that WIS's fatigue model works fine - but in extreme cases like Milacki it breaks down.

I would definitely not want to see a model where all pitchers suddenly become equally bad as they fatigue.  A fatigued Pedro should still pitch much better than a fatigued John Burkett.

Milacki is an abnormal exception. I would just like to know how it works, has admin ever explained a "fatigue" formula? BTW I think we have all seen rag pitchers turn in amazing performances at 80-90% health, and it could be an exception, but it just happens so often it makes you wonder if it's worth keeping your pitching staff as close to 100% as possible.

I disagree. I see a drop off with fatigue.

Posted by napolean on 10/9/2010 2:31:00 PM (view original):
Milacki is an abnormal exception. I would just like to know how it works, has admin ever explained a "fatigue" formula? BTW I think we have all seen rag pitchers turn in amazing performances at 80-90% health, and it could be an exception, but it just happens so often it makes you wonder if it's worth keeping your pitching staff as close to 100% as possible.

It only appears to happen often because no one ever complains when they blow out a fatigued starter.

Also, if you believe David Wells' claim that he threw his perfect game half-drunk, it's entirely possible for an "impaired" starter to throw a good game.

Why would anyone complain about blowing out a fatigued starter, you (or I) usually thought that's why he was blown out. I'm just wondering, in the big scheme of things, if pitcher fatigue is detrimental. It just seems more often than not it isn't, and I'm curious as to why. Also I'm sure Wells was half drunk when he made the claim too.

I love WIS and I think all the programmers are awsome and probably cute too !

Posted by micki on 10/11/2010 10:26:00 AM (view original):
I love WIS and I think all the programmers are awsome and probably cute too !

brown noser

Fatigue works on a curve. The penalty starts out slow, then picks up pace as a player gets more fatigued. The exception to that seems to be fielding percentage, which unfortunately appears linear.

If you think there isn't enough penalty, then draft fewer innings so your pitchers will be at 80% all season long and maybe you can win 120 games. Or maybe you'll have a hard time winning 60.

Good rule of thumb: If you "notice" something about a sim player's performance, you're probably wrong.

Say for instance a pitcher starts a game at 80%, after 60 pitches or so will a graduated fatigue penalty kick in or will he throw 120 pitches at a penalty level of 80%? In other words is the penalty "real time" or does his fatigue percentage (80%) hold for the entire game regardless of the # of pitches thrown? Hypothetically next start he's at 72%, does he stay at 72% and so on.

Posted by napolean on 10/10/2010 8:52:00 PM (view original):
Why would anyone complain about blowing out a fatigued starter, you (or I) usually thought that's why he was blown out. I'm just wondering, in the big scheme of things, if pitcher fatigue is detrimental. It just seems more often than not it isn't, and I'm curious as to why. Also I'm sure Wells was half drunk when he made the claim too.

That's the point...nobody feels the need to start a thread and tell everyone how they beat an 85% starter 6-2, but enough people have started threads to complain about losing to an 85% starter that it may appear as though fatigued starters win "more often than not".  

It's like how some people from poor nations think all Americans are rich, simply because the Americans they hear about the most are famous athletes, celebrities, or billionaire CEOs.  It's not true, but they think it is because it's all they ever hear.