Quote: Originally posted by tnbishop on 12/02/2009 Rebounds by point guards lead to a statistically significant higher point per possession than any other position every single year.


TS% goes up for players on a team, even if they don't get the offensive rebound. For instance, Rodman grabs the board. He throws it to Jordan, who spots a wide open Steve Kerr for 3 or Pippen for 2. They get a better look than usual because the entire defense is out of position. This factor isn't modeled in the sim, nor does Rodman get anything in the box score outside the offensive rebound. Conversely, Rodman grabbing 10% more defensive rebounds (and thus stopping 10% of these situations) is worth more in real life than in the box score or sim.

The SIM does not reward you for having good rebounders at all positions. At some point, you are basically taking boards away from your teammates rather than the other team.

I had never thought about the defense being out of place but that is exactly right.

Quote: Originally posted by badja on 12/03/2009The SIM does not reward you for having good rebounders at all positions. At some point, you are basically taking boards away from your teammates rather than the other team.

This is so true... but... in order to compete with the Moses/Worm frontcourt, you have to do this anyway. By very definition, Moses and Worm are taking boards away from one another.

Check it out - build a team with only one of those two then make everyone else someone with less than 5% oreb and less than 10% dreb. Either Moses or Worm are going to average well above 20 rpg (same with wilt, russell, gilmore, etc). But to compete with these teams that stack guys like that, you have to settle for the diminishing returns of getting a bunch of board-hogs.

If you could get enough of the other necessary things to win (3s, ftas, efg%), I can totally see a team with 25/30/30/15/15 as their dreb% (starting line-up) dominating. And you'll not get your money's worth out of a single one of those guys when it comes to the boards... unless you end up playing the proverbial cookie in a 7-game series. Then you might be glad you did.

I try to settle for in-between... I try to not overspend on boards, but I want enough that I will dominate everyone but the board-lords and the proverbial cookie... and versus those teams, I have enough that they shouldn't dominate me. Versus those teams, I'm confident that I have more of the other important stuff to win.

This is, of course, speaking only of open leagues. Draft leagues are much different - and consequently, much more fun.

Quote: Originally Posted By badja on 12/03/2009

Quote: Originally posted by tnbishop on 12/02/2009 Rebounds by point guards lead to a statistically significant higher point per possession than any other position every single year.


TS% goes up for players on a team, even if they don't get the offensive rebound. For instance, Rodman grabs the board. He throws it to Jordan, who spots a wide open Steve Kerr for 3 or Pippen for 2. They get a better look than usual because the entire defense is out of position. This factor isn't modeled in the sim, nor does Rodman get anything in the box score outside the offensive rebound. Conversely, Rodman grabbing 10% more defensive rebounds (and thus stopping 10% of these situations) is worth more in real life than in the box score or sim.

The SIM does not reward you for having good rebounders at all positions. At some point, you are basically taking boards away from your teammates rather than the other team.

I think that it's a mistake to frame it in terms of teammates taking boards away from each other- in fact the cumulative impact of your 5-on-the-floor rebounding is a main determinant of whether your team gets the board and that is what's important

frankly I dont care if my guys get their numbers quite so much as whether they beat the other team

Quote: Originally Posted By monkee on 12/04/2009
frankly I dont care if my guys get their numbers quite so much as whether they beat the other team

It's good that you don't care because you and I both know that anybody from pre-turnover era will not get close (in most situations, anyway) since wis fabricated so many numbers that older players are almost gimping your team...

I have the cookie cutter team that beat Earl Mantis.



I had played 20 some seasons and never took the time to figure out which players the system favored.

I read the ads for a theme league that was eliminating certain players such as Peja, Barros etc.

I thought hmm I have had my *** kicked by playing my faves such as Bird, Mchale, Magic, Tom Chambers, Alvin Adams etc. How much different can it be by playing these "magic players"?

Well it certainly was different in that I could compete in my league. Most all teams used either a great variety of these players or some. However I thought there were more than five players that made a cookie cutter team.

Did I have as much fun with this team as the ones that played my favorite pacers from a kid? Probably not but, do I feel bad for winning a championship using tactics that are used in every league? Not at all.

Obviously this sim engine is predictable if you pay attention to it. I am more of a HBD guy and will probably stick with that although the formula there is pretty basic also...

Does anyone know how FTAs are determined by the sim?

Peja, Nash, Allen type players on my team have always matched their real statistics. Wilt, Moses, Barkley, and Karl Malone never come close, averaging about 50-60% of their FTA.

For my small sample size analysis, it seems every player shooting over 300 FTAs is penalized and will shoot less, on average, in the sim. Those shooting under 300 are still vulnerable to variance, but should be around (occasionally even higher) their target.

Quote: Originally Posted By tnbishop on 12/06/2009Does anyone know how FTAs are determined by the sim?

Peja, Nash, Allen type players on my team have always matched their real statistics. Wilt, Moses, Barkley, and Karl Malone never come close, averaging about 50-60% of their FTA.

For my small sample size analysis, it seems every player shooting over 300 FTAs is penalized and will shoot less, on average, in the sim. Those shooting under 300 are still vulnerable to variance, but should be around (occasionally even higher) their target.

Ur FTA are influenced by the foul rates of ur opponents. If a high FTA team goes against a low PF team, the high FTA team won't match their real life FTA.

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Quote: Originally Posted By badja on 12/06/2009That would be nice, but it is certainly not always true.

I'm talking about over the long term.

Quote: Originally posted by ashamael on 11/25/2009But I'm stupidly excited over the wilt tripdub attempt.

10 games in and it doesn't look good. I can't even get him to match his real numbers (and he's the top ast% man on the team - by far). I think to do it I'll have to sacrifice my total ast%... which is odd, because the is the first time I've had a player not reach their normal ast numbers (since the new sim came out last year)... usually they bypass them. By far.

Quote: Originally posted by tnbishop on 12/06/2009For my small sample size analysis, it seems every player shooting over 300 FTAs is penalized and will shoot less, on average, in the sim. Those shooting under 300 are still vulnerable to variance, but should be around (occasionally even higher) their target.

Like any other stat, too much will not give you returns on investment. Also, RL stats always show more PF and less TO than a typical SIM team. We all use teams with low PF, thus making it very difficult for opponents to shoot 30+ fta per game for a season.

The game would really get interesting if PF stats were not used, and fouls dictated by fta's only. PF are the only subjective stat in the sim and there are endless variables that dictate their prevalence.

Quote: Originally Posted By ncmusician_7 on 12/06/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By tnbishop on 12/06/2009
Does anyone know how FTAs are determined by the sim?

Peja, Nash, Allen type players on my team have always matched their real statistics. Wilt, Moses, Barkley, and Karl Malone never come close, averaging about 50-60% of their FTA.

For my small sample size analysis, it seems every player shooting over 300 FTAs is penalized and will shoot less, on average, in the sim. Those shooting under 300 are still vulnerable to variance, but should be around (occasionally even higher) their target.

Ur FTA are influenced by the foul rates of ur opponents. If a high FTA team goes against a low PF team, the high FTA team won't match their real life FTA.

also you have to think at two different levels: 1) how your team's cumulative stats interact with and impact your opponent which is significant to outcome and 2) how interaction results are distributed by player in the boxscore which is cosmetic

in other words the point isnt whether your players individually reach thier real life stats it's whether having a bunch of high FTA guys on the floor (for instance) tends to get your opponent into foul trouble or whether having a bunch of big time rebounders on your squad (for another instance) leads to you winning the battle of the boards against your opponent

(so if you have a Wilt-Moses-Worm-Magic-Kidd starting 5 I guarantee you that none of those fellas will come close to their real life rebounding averages but I also guarantee you that night in, night out you will usually win the battle of the boards against your opponent)

in direct response to your question I postulate this - the 'cosmetic' distribution of those FTAs needs to be analyzed as a % distro based on your 5-on-the-floor at any given moment including such factors as cumulative and 'by position' opp foul tendency and your team's usage distribution (because I think 'who is likely to have the ball' may play a role in 'who gets fouled' so guys like Wilt or Moses who are high FTA, high EFG but med/low usage may be penalized) and in any event I think you can assume that this box score distribution may not be as exacting as you'd like

in the case of rebounds or FTAs it really isnt that big a deal (as long as things are functioning properly at the more significant team v team level)

however in the past we had a serious problem with the way that fouls were distributed which is a case where the cosmetic can have significant impact on outcome (if for instance Wilt has to sit in 20 minutes of play because he ate someone else's PFs) because PF limits 'feedback' into gameplay function (it is possible that the fix to this issue may have had a dampering effect on power players generating PFs (and so offensive power players being less likely to generate FTAs) because WIS patches are usually all about unintended consequences)

I'm not really concerned with games or even individual seasons. This seems consistent throughout every season. I'm not trotting out an Iverson, Jordan, Dantley, Barkley, and Wilt lineup, so this isn't a diminishing returns effect. This is happening to every other team too.

I look at other teams with Barkley, Moses, Jordan, etc and they never come close to their FTA. Prime Wilt generally can't even reach half his FTA rate. Peja, Nash, and Ray Allen tend to hover around their real life totals.

Why do certain players always hit their FT totals, but some never do? I think this is another big reason certain cookie-cutter players perform better in the sim. Jordan's shooting efficiency goes down when his FTA gets cut in half, his 85% or whatever rate is applied to only half the free throws compared to real life. Whereas Peja remains unaffected.

Now it's not gonna hurt Wilt, since his FT% is close to his FG%, but players like Karl Malone, Dantley, etc seem to get hammered by this discrepancy.

It's because of pace adjustments.
The cookie-cutters you're speaking of that get their ftas (and more) play in today's slow-*** game. Due to pace adjustments, they always get close if not more, while players that played from earlier (like mid-90s and before) get more.

I've paired 88 Barkley with 06 Jamison a few times. Barkley gets around 550-650 ftas, while Jamison gets 350-400 ftas. IRL it was 950 and like 300.

I don't really draft ftas for the points or for the ts%, though. I draft ftas to get my opponent in foul trouble, which completely destroys many good teams. That cookie-cutter doesn't dominate in rebounds when Rodman is sitting on the bench for 20+ minutes every game.

tnbishop, we've already explained why high FTA players won't hit their real life FTA. Here's a simplified example (leaving out variables such as tempo, usage%, etc): Player A shot 16 FTA per game in real life and played all 48 mpg, he is being guarded by player B who fouled 2 times per game and played all 48 mpg. Player A won't have anyhwere near 16 FTA per game in the sim (and player B will have more than 2 fouls per game as well).