Oh yeah...what happened to amycox?

I'm still convinced that the sim picks out certain owners and gives them success almost no matter what they do and that other certain owners live with the never ending scorn of the Man, doomed to suffer not just losing but losing in a majestic and horrific manner, sure to stain their very soul

ortails?

gosh

Or you could bring your knee pads like Mudbone...

BA-ZING BA-ZING

AMYDIX69

Quote:
A 77 win team is not evenly matched with a 109 win team. One of the teams was UNDER .500, while the other won two out of every three.

109 wins = 67% winning percentage

77 wins = 48% winning percentage

That's really not that big a gap, especially if we're talking about who might win a 5- or 7-game series.

Almost no team that makes the playoffs is useless and without a shot.

Quote: Originally Posted By bluedodger91 on 9/24/2009A 77 win team is not evenly matched with a 109 win team. One of the teams was UNDER .500, while the other won two out of every three.

I've seen it happen multiple times already. In fact I just beat a team in 4 games that owned me all season. I won just 2 of 12 in the regular season vs that team.

I'm not saying it's true or it isn't, but this is hardly a convincing answer, especially considering the sources

First off, W/L record in the regular season aren't always a great indicator of team strength. Split squads and unbalanced rotations may be mediocre in the regular season, but can be jaugernauts in a short (5 or 7 game) series. Secondly even when teams are unevenly matched, much as in real life, the lesser team stands a good shot at winning.

Secondly, in your example even if regular wins are representative of the chance of winning any particular game, the 77 win team will still win a 5 game series 17% of the time. That is about the same chance as you would have to roll a 6 on a fair die. Lucky, but hardly earth-shattering.

Well, what comes around goes around...

I'll sum up everything I've read in that thread with the same two words I used for it's title...

Good luck

Just for kicks, I simmed a 5 game series between a 109 win team (1969 Orioles) and 77 win team (1974 Indians):

Indians win 7-5
http://whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=2040464

Indians win 2-1
http://whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=2040469

Orioles win 12-2
http://whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=2040476

Orioles win 19-3
http://whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=2040477

Indians win 8-6
http://whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=2040481

The 77 win Indians take the series, 3 games to 2.

I only did this once, in case anyone's wondering how many times I had to do this to get an upset.

I've won a fair amount of titles. Since this subject comes up periodically, I've tried to pay attention. I haven't booked this on a spreadsheet or anything but my general observation is that when I judge my team superior to my opponent in a playoff series I win more often than not (but I also lose a significant minority of the time). When our teams are about even, it seems to be a toss up. When I have the inferior team, I generally lose (although I'll pull out a win about 20-25% of the time).

In judging the relative strengths of my team and my opponent, I pay little attention to our actual won-loss records. I look instead at the strength of the individual players & pitchers likely to play the most during our short series. For example, my opponent may have a crappy 4th starter who ate up a lot of innings but finished 4-22 during the regular season, or a regular outfielder who played 70% of the time and hit .220/.280/.270. Neither of those guys will get off the bench in the playoffs and might be replaced with dominant players with low PAs/IP. The end result is that sometimes I judge my 96 win team the underdog in a contest with an 82 win team.

Quote: Originally Posted By zubinsum on 9/25/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By bluedodger91 on 9/24/2009
A 77 win team is not evenly matched with a 109 win team. One of the teams was UNDER .500, while the other won two out of every three.

I've seen it happen multiple times already. In fact I just beat a team in 4 games that owned me all season. I won just 2 of 12 in the regular season vs that team.

I'm not saying it's true or it isn't, but this is hardly a convincing answer, especially considering the sources.

First off, W/L record in the regular season aren't always a great indicator of team strength. Split squads and unbalanced rotations may be mediocre in the regular season, but can be jaugernauts in a short (5 or 7 game) series. Secondly even when teams are unevenly matched, much as in real life, the lesser team stands a good shot at winning.

Secondly, in your example even if regular wins are representative of the chance of winning any particular game, the 77 win team will still win a 5 game series 17% of the time. That is about the same chance as you would have to roll a 6 on a fair die. Lucky, but hardly earth-shattering.

Mathematically, if four such underdogs (83%-17%) make the playoffs against four 109 win teams, at least ONE of the underdogs will win in half of the scenarios.

So it isn't THAT outrageous.

Well for shitz and giggles I just simmed
1927 Yanks and 1962 METS
300 games in I will run 1000
record 246-54 for the mets LOL
Mets won 2 in a row 6 times
never won 3 in a row
Yanks 22 in a row

246-54 for the Mets? Or do you mean Yankees?

I guess I better start losing more games then, would give me a better chance to win...